cwe84

No issue. Republic planes fly DCA/PHL-MCI as F9 and US. Many of our flights even those as DL/UA/CO/AA/US compete directly against our Branded service

BlueHorseShoe2000

Bedord's latest letter to employees contained a few interesting items and perhaps ominous news about the remaining ERJ/E190 flying in MKE/MCI.

-Beginning in Q1 Republic will change how its financial results are reported to more clearly reflect the independent nature of the branded and fixed-fee flying. Any profits or losses from the ERJ/E190 flying will now be broken-out seperately on Republic's financial statements.

-Republic has a pro-rate codeshare agreement with Frontier for all ERJ/E190 flying.

-Of the $82M lost on the branded operations last year (including the storm-related losses), almost $75M of that loss was generated in MKE and MCI. As a result, many of the "chronic loss-making markets" were discontinued.

-If oil prices remain elevated and Republic cannot raise fares appropriately, they will trim the flight schedule further to ensure the business remains profitable."

MikeFromMKE

Could be ominous but also could be a glimmer of hope. I'd almost be more worried if they didn't break out this flying from F9 since then they would get rid of it for sure to get their CASM numbers lower. As it stands we get to keep some flying that we might not have gotten and I would bet as long as it makes more money than parking the planes, RJET will continue to fly the routes. RJET has an abundance of 50 seaters that they don't know what to do with so if they can find a few high yielding routes for them I think it can be good for everyone. Heck I bet they could find a way to route one out to DEN to do DEN-ASE.

BlueHorseShoe2000

Very true.

With that said, Republic is going to be hard pressed to find many (if any) routes that will work with oil over $100. The economics of the regional jets just aren't there to make those routes profitable. I suspect that the appeal of the E190 is also starting to significantly erode in the current fuel environment.

It's not just a Republic/Frontier problem, either. If oil continues its upward trajectory, I suspect that we will be looking at some significant capacity cuts by airlines come fall.

MikeFromMKE

You're very right. It's one of the big reasons they are getting BB focused back on RJET, because they know they are probably going to experience some pain at CHQ this year trying to figure out what to do with all those birds. They are somewhat less exposed then their peers, but if birds don't fly they don't make money.

mke9499

Story from BizTimes discusses how the F9 flight reductions impact MKE.

http://www.biztimes.com/news/2012/3/5/mitchell-reeled

There has been discussion on this board about unused gates on Concourse D at Mitchell Airport, due to the extreme cutbacks in service; apparently, Frontier is locked into a lease agreement thru 2015 for gate and counter space at MKE.

MikeFromMKE

Decent article. I've done some more thinking on concourse D and think it would be a good fit for Delta with some gate/jetway shuffling. They could take over the Best Care Club and the airport could reduce its costs by mothballing E. F9 won't need more than a few gates and WN will probably move over to C with FL. If WN wants to stay on D maybe DL moves over to C and they build them a new club, but that is a less easy option than the BCC. Either way I don't think MKE needs to keep all 3 concourses open (heated, cooled, secured, cleaned) when they would be comfortable with 2.

WIRunner

American would end up needing to move over the D as well. UA's combined operations (as well as the AC flights) would be larger than what the gates they have would allow for.

Or, the *A carriers would end up moving to D, WN over to C, DL to D as well. Either way there will be a gate shuffle happening, if nothing else from CO and UA moving together.

BlueHorseShoe2000

The airlines have started loading some schedule adjustments for the summer that impact MKE (mostly positive for a change).

In July, Frontier will reduce MKE-MCO from daily to 2x weekly (Mondays and Thursdays). The non-stop flight will operate late afternoon which has traditionally been weaker for MKE-Florida traffic flows.

Delta is already increasing MKE-LGA from 3x daily to 4x daily in August even though the route hasn't started yet. Equipment will be 1x E170 and 3x CRJ900.

United will increase MKE-EWR from 3x daily to 4x daily. Equipment will be E145.

Per OAG, U.S. Airways will increase MKE-PHL from 4x daily to 6x daily in June. However, this change does not appear in booking websites yet. I'm guessing all flights will be CRJ200s to help Air Wisconsin rotate aircraft to their maintenance base in MKE.

knope2001

Thanks for compiling / posting this. A few updates:

MKE-PHL is loaded this morning on the US site, and it is 6x/day CRJ on Air Wisconsin. It's only for June, however, and currently reverts to 4x/day in July. Not sure if an increased schedule will move beyond June or what their plan is.

Frontier's switch to 3x/week Airbus is funded from the Orlando side, meaning the planes run MCO-MKE-MCO. This actually starts on Jun 7th already -- it was originally loaded to start in September:

Mondays
08:11am Lv MCO
10:04am Ar MKE
10:45am Lv MKE
02:25pm Ar MCO

Thursdays and Saturdays
02:40pm Lv MCO
04:33pm Ar MKE
05:15pm Lv MKE
08:56pm Ar MCO

A less-than-optimal schedule may be workable in markets where they are the only nonstop airline (like MSN-MCO) but it's not a slam dunk in MKE-MCO where AirTran has 4x and Southwest has 1x. Speaking of Southwest, their Florida flying has often included non-optimal Milwaukee departure times, and their loads have been only moderate most of the year.

The ominous concern about the MKE-MCO change is that it leaves orphaned the aircraft which is scheduled to do MKE-DCA-MKE in the afternoon. The April schedule has an E190 doing MKE-MCO-MKE in the morning, and then MKE-DCA-MKE in the afternoon. Now, starting June 7th that plane is scheduled to just sit all morning in Milwaukee and then fly MKE-DCA-MKE in the afternoon. That's virtually certain to not end up that way. The two most likely scenarios are that the last MKE-DCA trip gets dropped, or that something is restored in Milwaukee to use that aircraft in the morning. At least for summer they could do just fine using that aircraft for MKE-BOS-MKE in the morning, and then re-evaluate in fall. But that does not seem to be their trend these days.

I could see them not officially pulling MKE-DCA from the schedule until a decision is made on DCA-SDF and DCA-COS to avoid a black eye. If Frontier pulls MKE-DCA, that leaves AirTran with 4x as the only carrier. AirTran will continue to fly the route for the time being because Southwest's integration of AirTran is a slow and clunking affair, not because Southwest intends to keep 4x DCA-MKE, IMHO. Before one protests "But Southwest won't cut or drop DCA-MKE because they are the only nonstop carrier left", note that there is no nonstop carrier at all on DCA-MDW. And AirTran has only a small number of slots Southwest can use for Midway service -- four pairs currently used for MKE and six pairs currently used for ATL. A relatively modest but workable schedule of 4x DCA-MDW could mean DCA-ATL dropping to 4x and DCA-MKE dropping to 2x. If they wanted both DCA-MDW and DCA-ATL to be a more-competitive 5x, that would leave no slots for DCA-MKE. I do not expect DCA-MKE to go without any nonstop flights, but 18 months from now it could be any combination of Southwest, Delta, USAirways, or Frontier, offering anything from multiple daily mainline flights down to just a handful of CRJ's.

mke9499

Dropped ASE service by F9 ends up with others picking up capacity.

http://www.denverpost.com/business/c...denverpost.com