discoseal

Does AY really have that much pressure from Gulf carriers though? I'd imagine that if AY doesn't fly to a lot of SE Asian countries, they can keep their niche in East Asia.

intuition

I have no numbers, so no idea if they are feeling any pressure from gulf carriers. But if not, the travellers are stupid:


34% more expensive to fly AY if you are a loyal customer and book on AY webpage. Book on OTA and you still pay 300� extra to have the 26 hour AY-experience with stop in HEL and BKK.

WilcoRoger

On your way out AY is faster by one hour, but more importantly on your way back by 11 (!!) hours. 300� extra might be acceptable to spend half a day less travelling.

intuition

That is absolutely true, and for my type of travel a short flight time is worth something.

Booking the most direct flight on AY directly from AY (avoiding OTAs as discussed elsewhere) the price difference is 900€.

Now, this was just a random sample. QR's normal flight time (available at the same price point) is 16h30 outbound, 19h30 return, so then we are down to a 4-5 hours lost each way chosing QR. Is that worth 900€? Actually, no it isn't to me, especially knowing how good QR is. And for the regular joe?


Besides, on this particular route one must also count on a 8 hour delay on AY's outbound, so...

WilcoRoger

900� is a whole different cattle of fish

intuition

It is of course very difficult to compare, as price fluctuate all the time. Especially since Europeean airlines does not seem to monitor the competition - for instance you rarely see AY respond with lower prices during a QR campaign.

But to give an answer to the question if there is any realistic competitors, one must weigh both travel time and price. These 2 plots show price and total travel time (combined r/t time). Upper right corner is "expensive and slow" and lower left is "cheap and quick" - so this corner is where we all want to be.

They are sampled mid january (2,5 months out). Travel dates are chosen to favour AY (wednesdays) when they do actually have availability on saver tickets.
First out is CPH-TYO:


There is a group of 3 airlines forming a quick group, with less than 30h total travel time made up of AY, KL and LH. AY is cheapest among these, but it is not a big difference between them.

QR is the slowest, suffering from both DOH being out of the way and bad connections. At this sample, it is not cheap enough to motivate me.

TK is cheapest among all. The travel time penalty is less than 8 hours (r/t, remember). A tempting offer, IMHO.

BA, which is favoured among many FT'ers here, has a good balance between slow and expensive...

intuition

Next up is CPH-HKG.



This plot is more scattered. AY is still quickest among the chosen carriers. LH is surprisingly quick but with a price tag that makes it impossible in this comparison.

QR is currently campaigning, and cheapest of all. Time penalty compared to AY is a little over 9 hour (again, r/t). For me, knowing QR's quality, this is a close call between AY and QR despite the time penalty. Do note, dates are chosen to favour AY's saver tickets. IME, AY tickets normally is a bit more expensive making QR an easy choice.

BA is surprisingly cheap, which is probably due to tough competition on the LHR-HKG route. If I didn't hate them, they'd make a good choice in this sample. LX is also an interesting choice


My conclusion
CPH-TYO: AY need to stay well below 25k SEK or even TK will be a better choice. Timewise AY certainly has competition. For example, KL is only 15 minutes slower than AY on the homebound. IF KL or LH push down their price a bit, AY has nothing on them.

CPH-HKG: AY need to stay below 22k SEK to be competitive. Timewise, LH is in the same league as AY, with about 1 hour penalty each leg. If LH or LX starts to compete on price, AY is in trouble as there is not much of time penalty on these routes.



Notes: Different routes favours different carriers - more in terms of price than in travel time. CPH is as neutral as I can find, as it is an expensive origin for most airlines.
Comparison is only valid when AY sells short connection tickets. From time to time they only allow routing on bad connections, and in those cases almost all other airlines are a better choice.

WilcoRoger

Interesting chart - and confirms AY's strategy of being the fastest route* between Europe and Northern Asia (HKG being on the southern limit)

* not counting direct flights. Many of those follow more or less the same flightpath as AY do, without the landing/transfer/departure time.

cistavoda

I've been living in Hangzhou (HGH) for the past 2 months and have taken one trip to HEL with QR and I'm doing another one in early December. For both bookings the flight time and transfer time are ridiculously long, not counting the fact that QR only sells tickets to ARN/CPH instead of HEL. The reason I chose QR over AY is simply the price of their J tickets and the quality of the product. I won't pay double for AY especially when their "J" out of HGH includes an Air China Y to PEK for 3000+€.

OT: Got my plat card hand delivered. Like a boss. Now I'm stuck here in China with no domestic OW carriers and absolutely no benefits at all...

ffay005

Very interesting charts!

CPH, however, is probably not a favourable choice of starting point for AY. I wonder what the chart would look like if looking at a secondary European airport. Say MAN, WAW, KRK, HAM.

WilcoRoger

If you're ready to fly via DOH and CPH to HEL instead of direct, it should make sense to fly your Chines domestics via HKG or Japan with CX or JL

cistavoda

I would do so if the Chinese had given me a proper multiple entry visa without restrictions...

Courmisch

I suppose CX status works on CA and ZH, and AB on HU. But with AY, you are pretty much out of luck.

You could order the Finnair Diners Club card though. With Gold or Plat, that would cost nothing and give access to lounges in some airport terminals. I only tried the one in Shenzhen Boa'an and it was really lame though.

intuition

Cool! But yes, oneworld is truly worthless in china.

Driving further OT; I just had my 10 y.o. to MR for *G and will now let him take the lead on upcoming domestic trips in China. I hope for some spectacular 小皇帝 moments!
"I have GOLD card and this white ghost is my guest!



BTW, are you staying in Huangzhou any further? I might have reason to drop by.

cistavoda

I'll be in Hangzhou until 3 Dec and then between 14 Dec - 29 Dec in HGH, HKG, SHA...