Kiev: should I be worried?
Feb 20, 2014, 6:34 am
#16
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 2,443
April's a long way off yet and no one can say what the situation in Kiev will be then. If I was going now to Kiev for purely leisure purposes I wouldn't go, because: (a) the place must be tense and difficult, and I'm not sure how pleasant the experience would be; and (b) although it is no doubt possible to avoid the trouble spots - after all, although there are thousands of people who are demonstrating there are millions of others who are not - I don't know the city at all and I wouldn't be confident about where was likely to be unaffected, and I wouldn't have any idea of where to go to get out of a difficult situation if one happened to arise where I was.
Feb 20, 2014, 11:45 pm
#17
Join Date: Jul 2007
Programs: UA Silver
Posts: 794
In a practical sense, I'm not sure where anyone would stay in Kiev if they had a good reason to visit. Most of the main hotels are in Independence Square. Not many English speakers there either, so unless you know the language, these people really have enough to worry about right now. This is probably one of the more offensively selfish posts I have seen on FT.
Feb 21, 2014, 12:51 am
#18
Join Date: May 2013
Location: MAD
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The news here is big on showing uncensored images, unlike in the US. Yesterday was a literal gun battle in the streets with people, including uniformed medics, getting shot while attempting to treat and rescue the dead/injured.
When things are this hot 6-7 weeks away may as well be an eternity, we are all hoping the violence soon ends, but I honestly think it's just as likely to descend into a classic civil war at this point. There's a lot of implications, especially since it's on the Schengen/EU border. Unless you are going to specifically see someone, I'd stay back for now. There are literally snipers on the street in the hot area that are shooting anyone with live ammunition.
When things are this hot 6-7 weeks away may as well be an eternity, we are all hoping the violence soon ends, but I honestly think it's just as likely to descend into a classic civil war at this point. There's a lot of implications, especially since it's on the Schengen/EU border. Unless you are going to specifically see someone, I'd stay back for now. There are literally snipers on the street in the hot area that are shooting anyone with live ammunition.
Feb 21, 2014, 7:28 am
#19
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Kyiv, Ukraine
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Posts: 7,691
The news here is big on showing uncensored images, unlike in the US. Yesterday was a literal gun battle in the streets with people, including uniformed medics, getting shot while attempting to treat and rescue the dead/injured.
When things are this hot 6-7 weeks away may as well be an eternity, we are all hoping the violence soon ends, but I honestly think it's just as likely to descend into a classic civil war at this point. There's a lot of implications, especially since it's on the Schengen/EU border. Unless you are going to specifically see someone, I'd stay back for now. There are literally snipers on the street in the hot area that are shooting anyone with live ammunition.
When things are this hot 6-7 weeks away may as well be an eternity, we are all hoping the violence soon ends, but I honestly think it's just as likely to descend into a classic civil war at this point. There's a lot of implications, especially since it's on the Schengen/EU border. Unless you are going to specifically see someone, I'd stay back for now. There are literally snipers on the street in the hot area that are shooting anyone with live ammunition.
First of all, there is no risk of a civil war. The conflict is not between East and West or North and South as it is described by the biased Russian media. It is not even between people. The conflict is between the people of Ukraine and its President and his corrupted government.
Second of all, the area where the fighting goes on is rather limited. Yes, there were snipers shooting at people but they were at the Government quarter. Nobody is shooting people on the streets, nor are people walking around carrying guns. It is rather calm in the city now. Yes, it is scary, yes it is unsettling how many people died as never before in our independent history have people died during any protests, but I would not describe the situation as a civil war.
Last edited by Andriyko; Feb 22, 2014 at 2:59 am
Feb 21, 2014, 8:56 am
#20
Join Date: Jul 2005
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For those that haven't been following what's going on in Ukraine too closely and need a summary here it is:
On one side you have the people who are fed up with the current government, and on the other - you have the corrupt government.
The protests are not pro-EU, but anti-government.
In the early 1990s, after the break-up of the USSR, everyone who was 'managing' something in 1991, retained ownership of whatever they were 'managing.' Groups of influence (read:mafias) started forming mostly on a geographical basis.
The current president had a criminal history during soviet times for armed robbery and he has spent time in prison, so he's not exactly a model citizen, nor a charismatic leader. His 'circle of influence' comes from the east of the country, from Donetsk. After being elected, his friends started stealing and pillaging (on a very high-level), taking control of companies, etc., Russia-style, as one of my friends put it. Corruption increased to levels not seen before. Court decisions were 'influenced' by the ruling party, and police became even more corrupt (not that they were ever NOT corrupt),...
It is important to remember that his predecessor who came into power after the "Orange Revolution" of 2004, and his team were also seen a symbol of corruption and inactivity by the time he left office. His friends (including Yuliya Timoshenko who is in prison and has mostly been quiet through all of the recent activities) also made a lot of money through direct and indirect schemes to gain taxpayer dollars and funnel them into foreign bank accounts going back to the early 1990s. (google Pavlo Lazarenko for the story of one of the exposed crooks.)
Now let's fast-forward to December 2013. A group of people have been constantly out on Kiev's main square since November 2013. The special police forces (who are just as corrupt as the rest of the police in Ukraine) were brought in to clear them out. This enraged the public and you had hundreds of thousands of people of all types and of all convictions (both pro-EU and pro-Russia) out protesting. Among them were far-right Ukrainan nationalists from the Svoboda party (Svoboda = freedom) waiving their black and red flags.
These guys (the Nationalists) have a long history of supporting everyone that is anti-Russia, anti-Poland, anti-Jewish, pro-Ukraine. Their ancestors teamed up with Germans during World War II to fight against the Jews and Polish. They are probably the least willing group to adopt 'European ideals' (whatever those are), but this protest is convenient for them, and they're not afraid to take up arms. They're the ones that started the firebombs (along with anarchists and other extremists)
two blocks away from the main square on Hrushevskoho Street in the government quarter and they're the ones who, it seems, have been most responsible for starting the violence that is coming from the side of the Protestors in the past few days.
So what has been happening is that for weeks straight there were firebombs being thrown at police. In EU and US this would not last a day, but here the government did not break it up (because they had no balls to face the consequences from abroad, and because they are - rightfully - afraid this will span more protests).
On the other side, you have the government special police forces, and "titushky" - young guys who are big on muscle and low on brains - paid by the government to stir things up, cause provocations, beat people up, set cars on fire, etc.
Also, there is obviously western influence from the US (look up the call between the US State Dept and the US Ambassador in Ukraine) and influence from Russia.
All throughout these three months (Nov-Jan) of protests, outside these main squares in Kiev and other big cities, life went on as normal for most people until a few days ago. A few days ago, fighting broke out that used weapons (up to this point there were very isolated incidents of this. The metro in Kiev was shut in the middle of the day for 'safety and security reasons'. This is a transport system that transports 3+ million people per day. People had a lot of trouble getting back home, roads were jammed. The government announced that it was going to do an anti-terrorist action and storm the main square in Kiev (Maidan, which btw is a Turkish word for Square).
Who started using weapons first is hard to tell and both sides are making the case for it and certain elements on both sides are capable and wiling to use weapons, although not everyone has them on the side of the protesters. Some of this spread around the country as did panic, emptying out store shelves of basic goods, ATMs of money, and petrol stations of petrol.
Obviously there have been protesters and police who've been killed.
That's where we stand today.
The problem with the opposition is that there is nobody who is charismatic enough and who has enough balls to unite the country, end corruption and decide on a future path.
What remains is uncertainty and the danger of an impending civil war, which Kiev went through once in 1917-1919, when power changed hands over a dozen times between four sides, where there can be no winners.
On one side you have the people who are fed up with the current government, and on the other - you have the corrupt government.
The protests are not pro-EU, but anti-government.
In the early 1990s, after the break-up of the USSR, everyone who was 'managing' something in 1991, retained ownership of whatever they were 'managing.' Groups of influence (read:mafias) started forming mostly on a geographical basis.
The current president had a criminal history during soviet times for armed robbery and he has spent time in prison, so he's not exactly a model citizen, nor a charismatic leader. His 'circle of influence' comes from the east of the country, from Donetsk. After being elected, his friends started stealing and pillaging (on a very high-level), taking control of companies, etc., Russia-style, as one of my friends put it. Corruption increased to levels not seen before. Court decisions were 'influenced' by the ruling party, and police became even more corrupt (not that they were ever NOT corrupt),...
It is important to remember that his predecessor who came into power after the "Orange Revolution" of 2004, and his team were also seen a symbol of corruption and inactivity by the time he left office. His friends (including Yuliya Timoshenko who is in prison and has mostly been quiet through all of the recent activities) also made a lot of money through direct and indirect schemes to gain taxpayer dollars and funnel them into foreign bank accounts going back to the early 1990s. (google Pavlo Lazarenko for the story of one of the exposed crooks.)
Now let's fast-forward to December 2013. A group of people have been constantly out on Kiev's main square since November 2013. The special police forces (who are just as corrupt as the rest of the police in Ukraine) were brought in to clear them out. This enraged the public and you had hundreds of thousands of people of all types and of all convictions (both pro-EU and pro-Russia) out protesting. Among them were far-right Ukrainan nationalists from the Svoboda party (Svoboda = freedom) waiving their black and red flags.
These guys (the Nationalists) have a long history of supporting everyone that is anti-Russia, anti-Poland, anti-Jewish, pro-Ukraine. Their ancestors teamed up with Germans during World War II to fight against the Jews and Polish. They are probably the least willing group to adopt 'European ideals' (whatever those are), but this protest is convenient for them, and they're not afraid to take up arms. They're the ones that started the firebombs (along with anarchists and other extremists)
two blocks away from the main square on Hrushevskoho Street in the government quarter and they're the ones who, it seems, have been most responsible for starting the violence that is coming from the side of the Protestors in the past few days.
So what has been happening is that for weeks straight there were firebombs being thrown at police. In EU and US this would not last a day, but here the government did not break it up (because they had no balls to face the consequences from abroad, and because they are - rightfully - afraid this will span more protests).
On the other side, you have the government special police forces, and "titushky" - young guys who are big on muscle and low on brains - paid by the government to stir things up, cause provocations, beat people up, set cars on fire, etc.
Also, there is obviously western influence from the US (look up the call between the US State Dept and the US Ambassador in Ukraine) and influence from Russia.
All throughout these three months (Nov-Jan) of protests, outside these main squares in Kiev and other big cities, life went on as normal for most people until a few days ago. A few days ago, fighting broke out that used weapons (up to this point there were very isolated incidents of this. The metro in Kiev was shut in the middle of the day for 'safety and security reasons'. This is a transport system that transports 3+ million people per day. People had a lot of trouble getting back home, roads were jammed. The government announced that it was going to do an anti-terrorist action and storm the main square in Kiev (Maidan, which btw is a Turkish word for Square).
Who started using weapons first is hard to tell and both sides are making the case for it and certain elements on both sides are capable and wiling to use weapons, although not everyone has them on the side of the protesters. Some of this spread around the country as did panic, emptying out store shelves of basic goods, ATMs of money, and petrol stations of petrol.
Obviously there have been protesters and police who've been killed.
That's where we stand today.
The problem with the opposition is that there is nobody who is charismatic enough and who has enough balls to unite the country, end corruption and decide on a future path.
What remains is uncertainty and the danger of an impending civil war, which Kiev went through once in 1917-1919, when power changed hands over a dozen times between four sides, where there can be no winners.
Feb 21, 2014, 10:36 am
#21
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A little shocked at the "oh, you're going for an experience," ergo I'm somehow going to be entertained at a tragedy//look at people in a "zoo"...figured FT would be the last place on the web I'd see this type of judgment.
All travel is an experience. Period. When I initially planned Kiev (8 months ago), nothing was going on (well, nothing to warrant red flags). I've always wanted to go to the Ukraine, and April is supposed to be the best month of the year.
Watching a cultural shift/movement, watching people fight for what they believe in, witnessing something for the history books does not equate to disaster porn. Social movements are fascinating, and I have a hard time believing that because: (1) I'll be in Kiev, and (2) this is going on, that I'm somehow "in it" for unworthy reasons. Give me a break.
Moreover, as Andriyko pointed out (and I've confirmed this with others in the area) these protests are limited to a very small area.
I am hopeful that this situation can be resolved. If it is not resolved by the time I get there, I will have to make a game time decision whether the cost outweighs the benefits.
All travel is an experience. Period. When I initially planned Kiev (8 months ago), nothing was going on (well, nothing to warrant red flags). I've always wanted to go to the Ukraine, and April is supposed to be the best month of the year.
Watching a cultural shift/movement, watching people fight for what they believe in, witnessing something for the history books does not equate to disaster porn. Social movements are fascinating, and I have a hard time believing that because: (1) I'll be in Kiev, and (2) this is going on, that I'm somehow "in it" for unworthy reasons. Give me a break.
Moreover, as Andriyko pointed out (and I've confirmed this with others in the area) these protests are limited to a very small area.
I am hopeful that this situation can be resolved. If it is not resolved by the time I get there, I will have to make a game time decision whether the cost outweighs the benefits.
Feb 21, 2014, 7:19 pm
#22
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I am not extremely risk averse. I volunteered for Vietnam (only a mosquito with chikungunya fever got me), spent a year travelling through Mexico and Central America in my VW bus solo during "elections" (two generals and a colonel who had Somoza's support and took over via a military coup previously) in Guatemala, the El Salvador-Honduras football war, the Somoza government and revolution in Nicaragua, have dived many wrecks and with numerous sharks (including great whites, albeit those were in a cage)... and I would not go to Kiev for a "major lifetime experience", even those I have experienced several of those.
I might go in April (and am scheduled to visit Odessa, Sevastopol and Yalta in September). And I will reschedule as necessary.
(Keep your eye on the situation.)
I might go in April (and am scheduled to visit Odessa, Sevastopol and Yalta in September). And I will reschedule as necessary.
(Keep your eye on the situation.)
Last edited by JDiver; Feb 22, 2014 at 3:29 pm
Feb 22, 2014, 8:31 am
#23
Join Date: May 2013
Location: MAD
Programs: IB+, BAEC
Posts: 3,106
Your account of the events is overtly dramatic.
First of all, there is no risk of a civil war. The conflict is not between East and West or North and South as it is described by the biased Russian media. It is not even between people. The conflict is between the people of Ukraine and its President and his corrupted government.
Second of all, the area where the fighting goes on is rather limited. Yes, there were snipers shooting at people but they were at the Government quarter. Nobody is shooting people on the streets, nor are people walking around carrying guns. It is rather calm in the city now. Yes, it is scary, yes it is unsettling how many people died as never before in our independent history have people died during any protests, but I would not describe the situation as a civil war.
First of all, there is no risk of a civil war. The conflict is not between East and West or North and South as it is described by the biased Russian media. It is not even between people. The conflict is between the people of Ukraine and its President and his corrupted government.
Second of all, the area where the fighting goes on is rather limited. Yes, there were snipers shooting at people but they were at the Government quarter. Nobody is shooting people on the streets, nor are people walking around carrying guns. It is rather calm in the city now. Yes, it is scary, yes it is unsettling how many people died as never before in our independent history have people died during any protests, but I would not describe the situation as a civil war.
Yesterday I would have said it looks like things were going to come to a peaceful end relatively soon. Now it seems more uncertain as there are now certainly two organized sides to the crisis. The situation is EXTREMELY dynamic and it may be things are just fine by April or it may be things have devolved quite a bit, it could really honestly go either way. Anyone who claims to know one way or another is either lying or arrogant.
Feb 22, 2014, 2:02 pm
#25
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Feb 22, 2014, 2:04 pm
#26
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Independence Square, live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_LFrMcoEm4
Feb 22, 2014, 3:28 pm
#27
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Truly AMAZING! Sounds like he is touring the border area... 
I am hoping things will settle down sooner, rather than later, and those visiting in Spring will have a fine trip.
And, thanks for providing some good perspective and information here.
I am hoping things will settle down sooner, rather than later, and those visiting in Spring will have a fine trip.
And, thanks for providing some good perspective and information here.
Feb 23, 2014, 3:46 am
#28
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Kyiv, Ukraine
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People are very much welcome to come to Ukraine. Everything is calm and peaceful. As I noted before - downtown (the Independence square, Kreschatyk) are ruined and some buildings are burned down, so I do not expect them to be restored by the spring, but otherwise - there is nothing to be worried about.
Feb 23, 2014, 7:36 am
#30
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You'd think some of these bigger international chains would have discounted rates. Nope. The IC Kiev's rates are still through the roof....as are Hyatt's.