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Old May 22, 12, 10:39 am   #1
 
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I have a theory on travel to europe...can anyone verify it?

Okay, so the (euro)has not sunk down to where europe has become "attractive" again, but i keep hearing they are in recession (they=periphery nations). I expect, and my theory is, there is some deflation in prices of rooms and general travel necessities (cabs, food, etc.) is going on there under our noses. Can anyone validate my conjecture: is europe more attractive than the euro leads everyone to believe?

Im dying to go back there on vacation, but if there is true inflation and a strong currency, im waiting until the currency goes below $1.20/dollar. If it is a 1.30 currency and everything is deflated 10% im in!

Thanks!
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Old May 22, 12, 11:54 am   #2
 
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There's no way to answer your question without defining "attractive."

Go online and price out hotels where you want to travel, price out train tickets between the cities, check sample restaurant menus online and decide if the price seems fair.

If the total matches your expectations and budget, it's attractive, go.
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Old May 22, 12, 12:16 pm   #3
 
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Ive been trying to do that...There are so many "x" factors and I no longer have past benchmarks-it has been 10 years since I've been there. Im not sure if the sum of the parts will equal my cost goal...
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Old May 22, 12, 12:33 pm   #4
 
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It's also a pointless question without knowing which country you are planning to visit and what your travel pattern is. And you can easily check prices online... So just do your homework.
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Old May 22, 12, 1:00 pm   #5
 
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Definitely depends on where you want to go. Not everywhere has the Euro either. England still seems very reasonable compared to countries I've visited in the last two months, including The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden & Norway. Norway, especially, is eye-wateringly expensive.
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Old May 22, 12, 2:06 pm   #6
 
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Originally Posted by fusscharles View Post
Im dying to go back there on vacation, but if there is true inflation and a strong currency, im waiting until the currency goes below $1.20/dollar. If it is a 1.30 currency and everything is deflated 10% im in!
$1.20/dollar? You mean $1.20/euro. In Switzerland, it went from CHF1.1/dollar to CHF0.9/dollar but goods/food prices fell 20% since almost everything is imported anyways. So real buying power in $ has remained unchanged (except rail transport).

Wouldn't you rather have $1.1/euro and prices to fall 10% (deflation)? Then you'd have increased buying power in $ by almost 20%....
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Old May 22, 12, 2:55 pm   #7
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I was going to post this in the high prices in Greece thread....

http://www.slate.com/articles/busine...tourists_.html
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Old May 22, 12, 3:19 pm   #8
 
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Originally Posted by compass31 View Post
Definitely depends on where you want to go. Not everywhere has the Euro either. England still seems very reasonable compared to countries I've visited in the last two months, including The Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Sweden & Norway. Norway, especially, is eye-wateringly expensive.
Indeed; only two of the six countries that you mention use the euro.
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Old May 22, 12, 3:22 pm   #9
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For more discussion, I'll move this to the Destinations-> Europe forum. Ocn Vw 1K, Moderator, TravelBuzz.
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Old May 22, 12, 4:18 pm   #10
 
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way back when

i recall the british pound getting close to parity with the us dollar maybe pound =1.02 or so $. a short time later, the euro went to 80 cents(i think). I ALSO THink around then, i was getting 4 or 5 french francs for a us dollar. maybe even 7-8 for a dollar. and 1800 irtalian lira for a dollar. should i wait for that again?
i think not.
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Last edited by slawecki; May 22, 12 at 5:14 pm..
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Old May 23, 12, 4:22 am   #11
 
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Here in Cyprus, the tourism industry (Cyprus' main industry) is hurting. But the taxi drivers still gouge and cheat you and go on strike because they do not want competition from the public buses, the restaurants charge insane prices (unless you know where the locals go), and there are no great airfare deals. Hotels may be offering some good deals, but I haven't checked (because I live here).
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Old May 23, 12, 5:06 am   #12
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With regard to Italy, hotel prices might get you some good deals depending on stay dates. Big event/tourism peak dates I see no deflation, and I'm in the travel industry.
Cab prices have gone up and so have food prices due to the massive increase in fuel costs. Restaurant prices are going to reflect that.
As I see it, at the end of the day the only thing that is going to make a difference is how stronger your own currency has got as compared to the euro.
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Old May 23, 12, 11:17 am   #13
 
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Originally Posted by slawecki View Post
i recall the british pound getting close to parity with the us dollar maybe pound =1.02 or so $. a short time later, the euro went to 80 cents(i think). I ALSO THink around then, i was getting 4 or 5 french francs for a us dollar. maybe even 7-8 for a dollar. and 1800 irtalian lira for a dollar. should i wait for that again?
i think not.
Indeed, I remember my first trip under the Euro when you could buy one for $0.86. Those were the days, and when I travel now I still like to think its the case, and only cry a little when the credit card bills arrive. Life is short...
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Old May 23, 12, 4:53 pm   #14
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Originally Posted by fusscharles View Post
Okay, so the (euro)has not sunk down to where europe has become "attractive" again, but i keep hearing they are in recession (they=periphery nations). I expect, and my theory is, there is some deflation in prices of rooms and general travel necessities (cabs, food, etc.) is going on there under our noses. Can anyone validate my conjecture: is europe more attractive than the euro leads everyone to believe?

Im dying to go back there on vacation, but if there is true inflation and a strong currency, im waiting until the currency goes below $1.20/dollar. If it is a 1.30 currency and everything is deflated 10% im in!

Thanks!
Recession does not mean deflation.
Deflation is opposite of inflation.
You can have
  1. recession and inflation, or even hyperinflation.
  2. recession and deflation
  3. stagnation and inflation.
  4. robust economic growth and inflation.
If money supply is increased beyond what's needed to spur economic growth, or economic growth does not keep pace with the increase in money supply. which is what has been happening in Greece since it joined the Euro Zone, you will have inflation. In a recession, you need to increase money supply to increase liquidity so that businesses can borrow to create economic growth. Consumption (of the increase in money supply) by people, can help an economy, provided goods consumed are produced in the country. If you consume imported goods, (Greece imports 40% of its food and 100% of its oil) increase in money supply will not do w whole lot of good beyond increasing jobs in the sector that services imported goods. If the increase in money supply or stimulus or bail-out, merely goes towards servicing sovereign debt, it might not help the economy at all, unless it helps businesses (or Government, if its a responsible Government) borrow in more in order to kick-start an economy.
In a recession, quantity of goods produced goes down too. Despite the reduction in production, you can still have too much money chasing too few goods- which is inflation-- which is the case in Greece. Deflation will accompany a recession only if money supply decreases faster than quatity of goods produced.
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Old May 24, 12, 1:28 am   #15
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@ fusscharles:

It really depends where you go in Europe, since the living conditions and prices are so different. For example, London and Paris are still very expensive because of the high tourism rates. But if you go to other countries like Italy and Spain, the prices are usually much lower even if they use the same currency. I would advise you to go as soon as possible though, since the prices might go up really soon!
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