ranles

Are the prices of cruises (specials offered) falling.

Factors that may be playing a role. Fuel prices have dropped a ton.

Were will ISIS strike next?

What is the impact of the "Z" virus?

The stock market has dropped off a cliff (at least a small one)

Does any/reason insurance make this worse?

Mega ships keep on coming on the market

Randyk47

Funny thing is that some cruisers are complaining cruise fares are staying high and are asking, in light of many of your questions, why aren't they dropping more. We're not cruising in the Med this year after a string of three cruises in that region over the past four years but it was driven by us and our friends who cruise with us wanting to take a more laid back cruise. The ISIS situation had no impact on our decision but it may on others. We'll be in the Caribbean and are aware of the Zika virus but will take precautions and none of the couples are of child bearing age or have other health concerns. Have to say our Caibbean cruise was apparently selling slowly and the line kicked in some incentives like a substantial on board credit to fill up the ship. Anyhow, fares in high competition destinations like the Caribbean and Alaska with literally dozens of choices any given week may be down this year. Hard to point at exactly why other than to say it's probably a lot of things.

piper28

I would say prices in general are up, not down. You can get some last minute prices that are pretty decent if you're flexible enough to do that (of course, the airfare to get to the cruise in that case can cost more than the cruise does). But things that are booked out in advance have seemed to be higher than in years past. (Alaska in particular seems pretty high to me right now.)

Some of the cruise lines have made adjustments to their Med cruises based on things going on there, and I think some of the stops in Turkey may be getting awfully close to getting dropped from some itineraries (which would be a shame), but for the most part, I don't really think ISIS is having much of an impact on actual bookings for Med cruises.

Jay71

My view is that cruise pricing has gone up. I've been wanting to repeat a cruise in the Mediterranean and have a difficult time trying to find similar pricing for a cruise we did about 2.5years ago.

Here's my random list of key factors influencing cruise pricing:
- Fuel pricing is a positive
- A strong US currency is great for US cruisers but killer for people with wimpy currencies at the moment.
- Food inflation.
- More wealth in China/Asia creating new demand.

cargo13

http://www.travelleadersgroup.com/tr...arter-of-2015/

Website outlines cost savings/price decrease in travel but its not specific to cruising.

jww947

I think cruise prices are rising. We have been on a Disney cruises for the past 2 years and every year they have gone up. This year we decided not to go on a cruise because we could go to Disney World for a lot less money and Disney cruise's prices were getting out of hand. I think the popular cruises will always be high and increasing so it best to find alternatives. I can't comment on the stock market, currency and flu season.

Randyk47

I just happen to have my original cruise documents from my very first major cruise in 1995. When I compare what I paid 21 years ago against the same cruise on the same ship in the same cabin today the price has gone up 24%. Notionally, at least using one of on line calculators, the price should be 42% higher. Lots has changed over those 21 years from technology to market saturation to staff reductions that have helped contain the fare growth rate.

piper28

I'd say over 20 years, yeah, adjusted for inflation, it's still cheaper to cruise than it used to be. 20 years ago, everything was smaller, and I'd say cruising was still much more of a niche travel experience than it is now. But I think if you look over the last 10 years, I'm not sure the pricing has fared as well. When the economy went downhill, cruiselines did everything they could to keep prices as low as they could, and as a result, you have a lot of extra-fee stuff in place on a lot of lines now. But eventually they've been reaching a point where there's just not much more they can cut without affecting the experience (and a lot of people would argue they're well past that point), and they've been having to raise rates as a result.

Jay71

Agree with the comments that the cost of cruising hasn't gone up as fast as it could have. I think the cruise lines have tried to keep the entry level cabin as fairly affordable. But things have evolved to support that, such as the quality of food in the main dining room and the emergence of specialty restaurants with additional fees. In response to a question during a Q&A session on CC that asked if the deteriorating quality in the MDR was due to cutting food spend, the comment from a cruise line exec was that they had not reduced the budget allocated for cruises. IMO, a better question would have been if the budget has been increased to account for food inflation.

Randyk47

Agree. I don't think my wife and I are alone in thinking the quality of food has decreased over the years. Now granted very few main dining room eating experiences have ever been Michelin star experiences, at least not since we started cruising in 1994, but it was better once than it is now. For instance, and I'm assuming they weren't lying at the time, Holland America once used to frequently serve Dover sole in their main dining room. They still serve sole occasionally but rarely is it Dover sole. We've also seen a cutback in the size and quality of beef dishes. Four years ago we switched over to luxury lines and the quality increased a bit but even then old timers on those lines bemoan "it's not as good as it once was". Marry food cost containment with staff reductions and we've lost a little if not a lot over the years probably across the whole industry.

ktremor

As a travel agent I have seen cruises leaving from US ports still high while a small downturn in the pricing of European cruises. Many of my clients book far in advance and the ones that recently paid their final payments the current prices are about double of what they paid.

In my own personal cruise, I booked it 3/1/15 for an April 2016 cruise on the NCL Dawn. For a family suite I paid $3150 for four people and if I book the same cabin today for myself it would be $6300.

Many people thinking that they are going to wait last minute for a deal will see not as many out there as many cruise lines are shying away from them. Royal Caribbean has announced no more last minute deals. Norwegian started last month that cruises booked under 30 days out cannot take part in their pick a perk promotion.

DaveBlaine

I've heard that "back in the day" (Pre 9/11?) you could show up at the port and see if they had any open cabins. Truly last minute deal.

But as for me, I'd have to fly to any port and even with a "last minute deal" on a cruise, there is the joy of "last minute airfare". Kind of negates the whole thing.

ktremor

As a travel agent I have seen cruises leaving from US ports still high while a small downturn in the pricing of European cruises. Many of my clients book far in advance and the ones that recently paid their final payments the current prices are about double of what they paid.

In my own personal cruise, I booked it 3/1/15 for an April 2016 cruise on the NCL Dawn. For a family suite I paid $3150 for four people and if I book the same cabin today for myself it would be $6300.

Many people thinking that they are going to wait last minute for a deal will see not as many out there as many cruise lines are shying away from them. Royal Caribbean has announced no more last minute deals. Norwegian started last month that cruises booked under 30 days out cannot take part in their pick a perk promotion.

DaveBlaine

I've heard that "back in the day" (Pre 9/11?) you could show up at the port and see if they had any open cabins. Truly last minute deal.

But as for me, I'd have to fly to any port and even with a "last minute deal" on a cruise, there is the joy of "last minute airfare". Kind of negates the whole thing.

Randyk47

It was true once, prior to 9/11, you could show up at the port and catch open cabins. My parents lived in Orlando and my uncle in Miami so they'd go down to Miami and use my uncle's place as a base to try to catch a cruise out of Miami or Ft Lauderdale. I'd get these last minute calls from a terminal that they were off on the MS Whatever for X number of days and they'd call when they got back. Their success rate back then was actually pretty high as they weren't picky about what deck or cabin category. Knowing my dad it would be the cheapest he could get and still get on the ship. In their case his health issues actually caught up with him before 9/11 happened so they had to quit the standby routine around 1996.

Port security and passenger manifest requirements today make it virtually impossible to be a "terminal rat" today. The modern version is more like waiting for a last minute email, periodically visiting an Internet site, or having a good TA to watch for deals. Of course for us living in Texas pretty much means we have to fly to cruise ports, with the exception of Galveston, so as mentioned the last minute airfare are really deal killers for us. There is also a recent trend that cruise lines are starting to institute policies where they will not drop fares within 30 days of a cruise. I know from Cruise Critic a number of various cruise line "loyalists" have been complaining about what became this glut of "pennies on the dollar" deals over the past few years and, as ktremor posted, it looks like some lines are responding. Some are even cutting off incentive packages and not offering them within 30 days of the cruise.