QRC3288

I didn't consider this before, but the more I think about it this will probably change how I credit miles..."knowing" how the program works allows me to better value the benefits. If op-ups go away or become impossible to gauge as a DM, I will credit anything over 120k to AA. Incredibly easy! I hadn't done that before primarily because the benefits as DM - namely, frequent op-ups - outweighed using an AA mileage #.

AA earn/burn is superior. It's 135k miles round-trip for CX F to LAX! I've heard AA is revamping the program but as long as the burn rates are significantly less than CX, I still think it's probably worth it. My math is I earn 20k Asia Miles on a round-trip to JFK. Aka, in 3 round-trip JFKs I basically earn a one-way HKG-LAX F ticket on AA. This is roughly the rate of my long-haul J-F op-ups, around 20% maybe a little less.

I'm not sure if CX loses out in this situation, because I probably will still fly overwhelmingly on CX and KA given my HKG base and I think CX is all around quite fantastic, but I will definitely change where I post the miles. And I guess I might be a little more agnostic to which airline I fly...BR has some great North America flights for pretty cheap and better wine than CX J, for which is a nearly-identical J class hard product. I always enjoyed the CX J-F op-up lottery and if that goes away, I think my habits will change. This was one of the best DM benefits, IME, being at the top of the upgrade list! I know this is "unofficial", but frankly that term is meaningless given we all know that's how it worked. Unofficial or official it was still a benefit we all valued.

So put it this way....I cleared the 120k DM hurdle in ~5 months this year. I have 7 months to do what I want before I even have to consider re-earning DM. Maybe the joke has been on me for not at least crediting additional miles to AA all along.

QRC3288

elaborating on my post above, I actually think CX and airlines are stupid for not posting the op-up criteria. It is a benefit we value. Sure they can keep their discretion, but they're the suckers losing out by not publishing it.

I'd recommend they:
A.) Publish op-up order, and
B.) Publish tie-breaker

Heck I wouldn't even mind if they do it based on the fare paid, or revenue per year within tier, or by really any stupid metric, but as long as we know we can value it. If I have no clue and it seems random, well I don't put any value on it. Their loss.

As an aside, if BN is truly the tie-breaking determinant among tiers (DM, GO, SL etc) and that feels unfair, CX should simply try to institute a program where the tie-breaker among tiers is just whoever is the farthest from last receiving an op-up. That really should not be hard to program at all. They would just track when elites were upgraded, and say there were 8 DMs in J on an oversold flight but only 1 is getting upgraded, the one getting upgraded was the one who is longest time from his last op-up. There are all sorts of things to nitpick but my bottom line is the op-up policy is easier for me to value as an elite if they make it public. Otherwise, I'm better off earning miles in a program where I can more easily value the money I'm spending. Asia Miles is at a disadvantage here because it is a significantly worse earn/burn program than competitors so if the "unofficial" benefits in AM lose their value IMO, then I can easily earn in another program that's easier to calculate.

Cathay Boy

I am with you. I am struggling to justify staying with CX. AA is revamping their FFP but it is still way better in earning miles and burn rate on ticket redemptions.

Although I will missed CX services and product, but come on, every 3 round trips with bonus miles I can fly CX J and possibly F for free? Can't beat that...

Syamyael

I guess it is fair if emeralds with frequent j traveling is ranked above cx gold with economy traveling. The revenue generated would have way surpassed those from selling your data.

QRC3288

i agree with you if CX makes the program so simple as "he who pays more to CX gets upgraded more". That's easy and everyone, after some grumbling, I'm sure will live with it. The uncertainty is what's stupid.

For example, take the fuzzy line you're referring to where perhaps an OW Emerald is prioritized over a GO. CX does not know that Emerald's spending habits except on CX because QF/BA/AA is obviously not sharing revenue habits of their customers with CX. For simplicity sake, let's just say this OWE earned most of his status flying on the partner airline like QF, BA or AA. But CX knows, just due to the simple fact he's OWE, that this guy's business (or perhaps him personally) has wallet to spend on airline tickets. So, CX blurs the line and despite a GO spending more $$$ on CX, they upgrade the Emerald over the GO to try and get the guy excited about CX. It's their prerogative, but I'll be frank for any loyal CX members who do "value" op-ups, I think it's almost certain we will change habits.

The reason I bring up the GO example is because it's not so simple that ex-HKG mid-tier travelers spend less. i'm not GO, but many friends are and I sympathize with them. CX tix - even economy or PEY - can cost an arm and a leg ex-HKG. Because it's CX, many GOs are going to be ex-HKG travelers. And GOs frankly don't get huge benefits; yes they get the seat guarantee, but compared to DMs they rarely get op-ups and don't get F priviledges. All that, and many CX GO's could easily qualify for OWE on some of the easier OW elite programs out there like AAdvantage.

Here's an example...a OW Emerald traveling on a J class around-the-world fare is absolutely contributing less to CX's bottom line than an ex-HKG GO traveler in PEY, and it's possible even less than a mid-range fare class EY fare ex-HKG. CX sells some fantastic (read: cheap) fares ex ports that aren't HKG, including "premium" markets like North America and London. By and large, the ex-HKG crowd pay far more than their tix than Emeralds originating in other destinations.

Ultimately this will be a business decision by CX, and we can make our own business decisions as customers. In the last day I've come to the realization that if op-ups are indeed diminished, I definitely will credit miles elsewhere! CX might not even care because my butt will almost certainly still be in their seat. I enjoy flying in F but primarily pay for J...so on the majority of times I don't pay for F class, to sit up there I burn my miles or get op-upped. And if op-ups go away, then I'll have to accumulate more miles. Which means earning in a OW program that gives me more bang for the buck.

Siamstationed

Last year I was managing a 70% op up from J to F it will be interesting to see how it changes this year, having done some research into agency guys company, it would seem that they have some old BA hands on board, this is currently how the BA CIV scoring works:

This is the current scoring system (out of 105):
0-5 points – banding for Blue BAEC members
6-13 points – banding for Bronze BAEC members
14-35 points – banding for Silver BAEC members
36-96 points – a surprisingly wide banding for Gold BAEC members
97 points – Gold Guest List members (basic level)
98 points – Key Decision Makers
99 points – a Key Decision Maker who is also Gold Guest List
100 points – Lifetime Gold Guest List and higher tier Gold Guest List members
105 points – Premier (a special BAEC membership level usually reserved for people who control major travel budgets for corporates.

I would suspect that CX will be using a similar system perhaps?

sscywong

Under this system Silver will still rank below Gold... So in case of CX an ex-TPE I fare DM will still rank above ex-HKG Y fare GO... Let's see how CX op-up will go after ex-HKG system is completely migrated...

GE90-115B

If I was a GO who flew enough to earn OW Emerald I would certainly think about banking my miles with AAdvantage, only barrier is that I need to make sure I fly at least 4 sectors a year on AA Metal to even be eligible to maintain a status with AA. Is this policy still in effect?

iadp

The AA board says 4 segments are required and enforced but they can be codeshares.

77W_12A

Burning AA miles is definitely far better than MPC. Take this into consideration. If you're based in HKG and most of your travel is within Asia, you can only earn miles on Y, B, and H fares. You have a lot more options banking with CX.

I don't know if it's true or not, but I'd think as a DM, you'd have more inventory open for redeeming flights. At least you can waitlist. With AA, you have to keep calling to see if any CX space opens up.

Ok, let's say you book a codeshare on AA.com for HKG NRT with AA flight numbers. It won't price it out. You have to book an itinerary such as HKG-NRT-SFO/LAX to get the AA coded flights.

Nobody knows how AA is going to revamp the AAdvantage program. They didn't change much this time because they're still trying to merge the systems together. Once that's completed, I'm most certain the program is going to be more revenue based.

AgencyGuy

Just to clarify one point here. My understanding is that the CIV / ACV only works to sort upgrade priorities within a tier and not across membership tiers, that way a high value Silver would not end up with a higher upgrade priority than say a medium or lower value Gold. Hope this helps.

Cathay Boy

Very helpful, thanks. So if this is true, then the upgrade order is intact, and the CIV score seems like a new way to do tie-breakers.

Heh heh, guess DM-Y can forget about op-ups...

jagmeets

Thanks AgencyGuy.

Cathay Boy- not really..A DM-Y would still be getting OpUp'd before GOs, and I guess we all know of a fair few GO (even SL in cases) upgrades...so it should still be ok.

A DM on discounted J fares (me!) on the other hand...oh well- perhaps time to revert to being a DM-y and be happy about the occasional upgrade to J and forget about F!

alphaod

Who gets higher priority for an upgrade?

A DM with a higher CIV score or a GO who's paid for a J seat, but is seated in Y due to lack of J availability? (So voluntary downgrade for the GO)

QRC3288

Man, I think you're confused...what you mention is an impossible situation. The only reason you'd be sitting in Y class instead of J class on a paid J ticket is that there literally are no seats left in J on that plane. Nada. They are not op-upping someone to J while simultaneously downgrading someone to Y! That's not how op-ups work.

Three examples:
1.) I think the only time you're realistically in this situation is when you're switching dates at the last minute. I've done this a number of times. I walk up to airport with ticket next day or later. Say I'd like to fly on this flight. They say "sorry Mr. QRC, J class is full at the moment. Would you mind us giving you a Y class ticket (with all the caveats that there are no refunds despite self-downgrade), waiting here with us until the last minute, and seeing if all paid J pax end up checking in? If not, and there is availability, we'll give you the seat." In the handful (<5) of times I've done this, I wait at the check in area, about 45-60 minutes before departure the staff come over and say "hey, guess what, we have availability after all." Then they tear up my Y boarding pass and issue the J one. I haven't yet hit the situation where they don't have a seat. But if the situation came up where they didn't have that seat, I would have to imagine J class was indeed full. Aka, they are not op-upping pax over me and then force downgrading me on a paid ticket. Doesn't work that way.

2.) As for voluntary downgrade, there are no seats left in J. That's why they're doing downgrades. They're not paying to downgrade passengers from J to Y and then simultaneously op-upping DMs from Y to J.

3.) For the last possibility, invol downgrade. There is zero chance a GO gets invol downgraded on a J class paid ticket! In the ever so rare situation they do invol downgrades for J, aka nobody takes the deal they offer, it's going to be a non-status (not even Asia Miles) pax. Zero chance it's a GO.

If what agencyguy says is correct, then there isn't a huge difference and I can breath a sigh of relief. It sounds like just the tie-breaker among tiers is changing.