Centurion

Amex Centurion and Platinum market share is going to be taken away so much that I am going to research taking a short position on the stock equity or bet the price of Amex common stock decreases.

Why you may ask? First came JP Morgan Chase with several products that offered better rewards and flash for those that want it from the Chase Palladium to the Ink Ultimate rewards.

Now today I received a A Citi Executive Platinum Card in a box that feels nicer than a Centurion Card box.

Someone at Amex better have the guts to tell the boys at top of the Amex food chain their market share is getting whacked away by two different banks and not burry the bad news. But I know executives like their perks, golf, girlfriends, so the odds are Amex is going to get hurt in my opinion.

tuchop

that's good for us; cardholders (as long as we don't have shares there atm). They'll have to increase the offer of benefits, products and rewards and make amex cards worth it again.

aa4ever

The title of this thread should be changed. You're speculating that market share is down, but we definitely can't conclude that from the fact Citi is sending out nice card literature and Chase has some new products out. If anything, I'd say Citi putting lots of effort into their card implies that they're having trouble selling it. That said, there is more competition now so the marketshare may be down. But I also wouldn't be surprised if there's way more interest in these cards and the number of platinum cards is higher than it was 10 years ago.

Also, Plt/Cent cards are almost certainly a very small part of Amex. Don't think I'd make stock predictions based on potentially losing some marketshare on these 2 cards.

krazykanuck

This. Not to mention Amex has generally the highest fees on merchants, higher spend per card vs an average V/MC, generally excellent customer service, and wealthier than average cardholders. I wouldn't bet against the stock based on what you said.

United747

I completely agree as well. I was reading some stats awhile back on amex cardholders and it said they spend, on average, several hundred dollars more at restaurants alone each month compared to visa and mc.

some dude

I can say that anecdotally, most people I know who are big spenders and were on AX Cent/Plat have moved to Chase Palladium in the last year or two.

It's the low spenders who use their points to buy a toaster who are still sticking around on AX Plat.

I've started chasing bonuses.

aa4ever

Do you live in NYC or an area where Chase is extremely powerful? Reason I ask is that it seems that the only real reason to take Palladium over Amex Plt is if you are either a) with Chase Private Banking or b) a United Flyer who doesn't want the United Club Card. Looking up the benefits online, it doesn't seem to offer as much as the Amex Platinum except for a mildly better bonus (35K when you hit 100k spending). Club access is way worse (Lounge Club [watered down priority pass] vs Priority Pass Select and SkyClub) and I know that Visa Sig Hotels are way worse than FHR as a program. There are other things too. Basically, all Palladium has going for it in my mind is the cool card and United transfers. And if you want UA transfers, not sure why you wouldn't just go with the UA Club card and get UA lounge access.

Not saying that Amex doesn't have some competition, but I still think that they win in this segment, though not by as much as they used to.

mia

Citi Executive is a me too product designed to compete with Delta Reserve and United's Club Card, and it is years late. When I handed the box to Ms mia she examined it for a few seconds, wasn't able to open it, and asked me to extract and activate the card. So much for fancy packaging.

In practice Chase will buy a United Club membership for Palladium cardholders who ask. Extensive discussion here:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/chase...dium-card.html

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...centurion.html

some dude

The circle of friends I have congregate around South Florida and NYC, both areas where Chase seems to dominate in retail banking. In both cases, people use Chase Private Client. As far as benefits -- I agree, but I don't think these people are making the decision based on a mathematical calculation of value of benefits/rewards.

I personally tried Chase Private Client, and wasn't too impressed.

GNALUZU

So, are you saying that the card itself is better than the Cent card because the box feels nicer?

How do the benefits stack up against the Cent card? That is what would be the deciding factor.

mia

Chase is actually #4 (by deposits) in South Florida, behind Wells Fargo, Bank of America and Citibank. All of these banks achieved their presence here through acquisition, Wells Fargo bought the failed Wachovia, Citi bought a failed Savings & Loan during the previous housing related banking crisis. Due to this history Wells Fargo and Bank of America (excluding Merrill Lynch) would have a different customer demographic than Citi or Chase.

Upgraded!

Exactly. There are two kinds of $500ish cards out there:

Those tied to an established, separate loyalty program (airline, hotel) and those associated with a portfolio of perks from a variety of sources and an in-house loyalty program.

The first group (DL Reserve, UA Club Card, AA Executive, RC card from JPM) are acquired, generally, as the result of a cost/benefit analysis and determination that it's more cost-effective to pay a fee up front for benefits with a specific third party (such as an airline) than to either earn those benefits through flying or purchase them piecemeal. If you want AC access and need a boost in EQM, then the Citi card is worthwhile.

The second group consist of cards which, to many, are pure "wallet candy". To others, there is the same "cost/benefit" analysis (perks >annual fee and I'd have bought those items anyways). And finally, there are those who can truly take advantage of things such as bonus hours for booking private jets and a card like this is a no-brainer (even though cost is typically no object).

The wallet candy crowd will always gravitate towards Amex due to the impressive marketing around the Centurion in particular. Also, the cost means it must be the best, right ? The Palladium probably has more cache than most of the other cards banks have attempted to issue (Visa "Black Card", Citi Chairman) because it's by invite (request, really) only and has requirements one cannot meet simply through massive spending on reimbursable expenses.

As far as customers who actually derive benefits from the rest of the perks (would fly private anyways; would stay at ultra-luxurious hotel anyways; would buy wife gift at Harry Winston anyways) and just want either a discount on those items or to be able to consolidate acquisition of those items, then cards like the Palladium make a lot of sense. So does the Platinum from Amex, but many will probably balk, on principle, at the Centurion's price. Most of the ultra-wealthy didn't get that way by spending large amounts needlessly in order to show off.

mia

Departures magazine circulation figures are as good a proxy for USA-issued Centurion and Platinum cardholder numbers as we are likely to get.

2011 - H1 - 1,040,955
2011 - H2 - 1,081,387
2012 - H1 - 1,111,423
2012 - H2 - 1,157,040
2013 - H1 - 1,194,749
2013 - H2 - 1,237,880

Unfortunately they no longer breakout Centurion separately from Platinum.

Upgraded!

Doesn't really matter; only the Platinum is really competing with the other cards on the market, since it's priced similarly. The Cent is sort of off by itself so even if these were all Plat it shows an increase year over year.

some dude

May be true, but:
1) Chase is aggressively opening new branches
2) Chase is in locations far more ideal for the 'bling' crowd that would be interested in $500+/year credit cards.
3) Chase very much understands the high end market here, and markets directly to the Brazilians, Russians, etc ... Citibank seems like a regular vanilla bank by comparison.

Citibank in S. Florida likely has a much larger number of lower value accounts.

That said, Citibank's affiliation with AA gives them some value as well since MIA is an AA hub. In any event, I stand by my original point, HNW people I know have all moved on to other cards -- they may not have cancelled their amexes yet, but they are close.

On the flipside, I know several people who spend well under $100k/year, rarely travel, and if they did would have no idea how to use their benefits. A few of them have signed up for Amex Plat this year... So, I am not terribly surprised amex cardholder counts are going up, but I'm really not sure why this demographic is willing to pay $500/year, either.