Go Back  FlyerTalk Forums > Miles&Points > Discontinued Programs/Partners > American Airlines | AAdvantage (Pre-Consolidation with USAir)
Reload this Page >

Patterns & predictions for DEQM / double EQM in 2013 (consolidated)

Community
Wiki Posts
Search

Patterns & predictions for DEQM / double EQM in 2013 (consolidated)

 
Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old Sep 4, 2012, 7:33 am
  #16  
In Memoriam
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: dallas texas usa
Programs: aa plt 4.9MM LTAC
Posts: 14,828
chances are 50-50.....they will either have 2x's or not....
clacko is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 7:36 am
  #17  
brp
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,533
Originally Posted by clacko
chances are 50-50.....they will either have 2x's or not....
This is not even close to true. This implies that there is an even chance of having it or not. Without further information, it is impossible to make a prediction like this. Something with a binary choice (will or won't happen) doesn't have a 50-50 chance. Consider the lottery - either I will or won't win it....but the chance of winning is hardly 50-50

Cheers.
brp is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 7:50 am
  #18  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: DFW...at the moment
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat, Hyatt Diamond, HH gold
Posts: 609
Originally Posted by brp
Consider the lottery - either I will or won't win it....but the chance of winning is hardly 50-50

Cheers.
I'd play with those odds. But I guess that I could no longer call the lottery 'a tax for those bad at math' (or an 'idiot tax')
Zomba is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 7:51 am
  #19  
brp
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,533
Originally Posted by Zomba
I'd play with those odds. But I guess that I could no longer call the lottery 'a tax for those bad at math' (or an 'idiot tax')
The other view is that it's a valid part of a balanced portfolio- it's a low investment, very high risk investment with a very high payoff. It is possible to know the math and still play.

Cheers.
brp is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 7:58 am
  #20  
Original Member
 
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Fort Lauderdale
Programs: AA-EXP (15yrs) 3+MM , exDLPlt, exCOPlt, Cruiseaholic (250+)
Posts: 335
DEQM for 2013?

Based upon recent flights, I am seeing a lot more empty seats than previously. If the economy keeps sputtering, I'd bet on it. The cruise lines are starting to discount massively (balconies for under $50 a day) and I think the airlines will be following suit.
MiamiFlyer is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 8:38 am
  #21  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
Possibly, as part of an exit from bankruptcy/rebranding there might be another month of DEQM freebies as a good will gesture to elites. Of course, if the bankruptcy leads into a USAir merger (which is looking more likely today than a few weeks back) then all bets are off. IIRC neither DL/NW or UA/CO did anything promotions when those airlines combined.
MiamiAirport Formerly NY George is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 8:40 am
  #22  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: ORD
Programs: AA PLT, UA Silver, EK Gold, Hilton Diamond, Global Entry, Clear
Posts: 1,082
Originally Posted by MiamiFlyer
Based upon recent flights, I am seeing a lot more empty seats than previously.
Really...? We must fly very different routes; I can't remember a flight that wasn't at or near full capacity this year.
wolf539 is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 8:40 am
  #23  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: MSY (finally); previously NYC, BOS, AUH
Programs: AA EXP, 6MM; BA GLD
Posts: 17,248
Anyone remember when we would turn to FlyerTalk for real information?
Me neither.
Blumie is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 9:02 am
  #24  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
Originally Posted by wolf539
Really...? We must fly very different routes; I can't remember a flight that wasn't at or near full capacity this year.
There is no real evidence that any airline is seeing a sizable drop in load factors. Load factors remain near all time highs. I would tend to think that airlines (including) would park a/c in the desert before going on a DEQM binge like we saw in 2009.
MiamiAirport Formerly NY George is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 10:15 am
  #25  
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Programs: AA EXP 3MM
Posts: 1,773
Originally Posted by TrojanHorse
it was a typo, he meant 2013-15
No. OP asked about 2013, so I asked about 2014 (then the OP subsequently changed his post to 2013-2014). You could still ask about 2015, and I don't think anyone's asked about 2016 yet.
beerup is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 10:36 am
  #26  
Original Member
 
Join Date: May 1998
Location: Fort Lauderdale
Programs: AA-EXP (15yrs) 3+MM , exDLPlt, exCOPlt, Cruiseaholic (250+)
Posts: 335
Originally Posted by wolf539
Really...? We must fly very different routes; I can't remember a flight that wasn't at or near full capacity this year.
Up until a few weeks ago, I would have agreed with you, but this is just in the last few weeks. Also, you are in a hub, and I fly out of FLL. Had 6 empty F/C out of DFW-YVR a few days ago. About 25 (F/Y) empty on the FLL-DFW segment.
MiamiFlyer is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 11:53 am
  #27  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: STL
Programs: AA 2MM, AS MVP Gold, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 12,966
Originally Posted by Blumie
Anyone remember when we would turn to FlyerTalk for real information?
Me neither.
Each evening, from December to December,
Before you drift to sleep upon your cot,
Think back on all the tales that you remember
Of FlyerTalk.
Ask ev'ry person if he's heard the story,
And tell it strong and clear if he has not,
That once there was a fleeting wisp of knowledge
Called FlyerTalk.
Yes, FlyerTalk, my boy!
Where bad info wasn't posted until sundown,
By eight a.m. the bovine poop had flown...
Don't let it be forgot
That once there was a spot
For one brief shining moment that was known
As FlyerTalk.
gemac is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 12:01 pm
  #28  
Moderator: American AAdvantage
 
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
But just perhaps... the "Speculation:" in the title means something, so those who prefer not to speculate or read speculative threads can move on without having to read them. Or is this what they mean by "reminiscence therapy"?
JDiver is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 12:34 pm
  #29  
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: MIA
Programs: AA EXP, TSA Pre, Marriott Platinum; SPG Gold
Posts: 21
Talking

Originally Posted by beerup
No. OP asked about 2013, so I asked about 2014 (then the OP subsequently changed his post to 2013-2014). You could still ask about 2015, and I don't think anyone's asked about 2016 yet.
Do you know something about 2016 ? I am thinking about qualifying for the Olympics that year and plan on doing a lot of flying. Probably in the 100 Meters if anyone is wondering, though I may look at swimming.
Cerebral is offline  
Old Sep 4, 2012, 12:43 pm
  #30  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: ORD
Posts: 654
Originally Posted by MiamiFlyer
Based upon recent flights, I am seeing a lot more empty seats than previously. If the economy keeps sputtering, I'd bet on it. The cruise lines are starting to discount massively (balconies for under $50 a day) and I think the airlines will be following suit.

How many business travelers take cruise ships to their destination?

Last edited by JNB280; Sep 4, 2012 at 12:51 pm
JNB280 is offline  


Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.