View Poll Results: My opinion of the announced AA - US merger is:
This is the best of all possible worlds; great idea!
33
3.93%
This portends a stronger airline, with some changes for all
192
22.88%
I am neutral - pros and cons for all
199
23.72%
I think this is a somewhat bad idea with some real challenges
226
26.94%
I am completely opposed to this merger; terrible idea!
189
22.53%
Voters: 839. You may not vote on this poll
AA - US Merger Agreement / Announcement / DOJ Action Discussion (consolidated)
Aug 26, 2013, 2:59 pm
#2521
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: AA LT Plat, UA 1k/1mm+, National EE, IC Plat, Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 2,605
Dougie is just saying this so that he doesn't have to pay more which makes him the darling of Wall Street...
Aug 26, 2013, 3:03 pm
#2522
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 76
If you read this thread it posts to a lot of legal analysis, the view of actual lawyers (rather than "analysts" or airline pilots) is that there is nearly zero chance this merger is approved. Parkers own statements killed the deal. You can believe the tooth fairy is real, that is about as likely to be true as parker getting his shot at running AA. 
This is interesting as this is Jeff's current strategy at UA, and that has not worked out very well...
UA's current horrible results (and AA and DL's better results) vindicate AAs focus on improving/maintaining the passengers experience for elite fliers.
I don't profess to understand the "pilot" shortage. I do know that there are about as many RJ pilots in the US at this point as mainline pilots. I do know that nearly every single RJ pilot wants a slot with a major airline. The experience/age of pilots may fall, but there will be pilots for the major airlines. The only question I have is who will fly the RJs, and will pilot shortages be helped by airlines (like DL) upgaging their RJs and having fewer of them.
Since you are an AA pilot, perhaps you can help out the community by explaining (or linking to some analysis) on how these factors will play out.
Parker has been able to make US profitable because with two flighting pilots unions he has the lowest pilot and employee pay of the majors. The US pilot pay was 13 to 35% lower than AA pay under the BKR contract. . http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...ml/#more-11561
Do you really not know this?
There is a huge amount of financial analysis which is readily available which points to the US's lower labor costs as the only reason its profitable. Here is a good example: http://beta.fool.com/adamathm/2013/0...-they-s/22495/ A quote from this article (which is indisputable correct):
"In spite of the apparently strong earnings results, US Airways is not a stock that I am interested in owning. The company faces a very unstable situation because it has a heavily unionized workforce that is significantly underpaid relative to the competition. US Airways has benefited from its labor group's militancy, because they have been unable to agree upon and ratify new labor contracts for many years. While workers at competitors like Delta (NYSE: DAL), United (NYSE: UAL), and even bankrupt AMR (OTC: AAMRQ.PK) have gotten big raises, US Airways employees are working under bankruptcy-era contracts."
This is the guy you want to control your future?????
Its hard to discuss things with someone who obviously is entirely unaware of what Parker has done with LCC, and how LCC was "profitable."
Actually DOJ is resource constrained. The "hope" of AA/USs lawyers was to blitz the DOJ with a quick trial and overwhelm them. Judge Kollar's appointment basically ends that strategy.
This is interesting as this is Jeff's current strategy at UA, and that has not worked out very well...
UA's current horrible results (and AA and DL's better results) vindicate AAs focus on improving/maintaining the passengers experience for elite fliers. I don't profess to understand the "pilot" shortage. I do know that there are about as many RJ pilots in the US at this point as mainline pilots. I do know that nearly every single RJ pilot wants a slot with a major airline. The experience/age of pilots may fall, but there will be pilots for the major airlines. The only question I have is who will fly the RJs, and will pilot shortages be helped by airlines (like DL) upgaging their RJs and having fewer of them.
Since you are an AA pilot, perhaps you can help out the community by explaining (or linking to some analysis) on how these factors will play out.
Parker has been able to make US profitable because with two flighting pilots unions he has the lowest pilot and employee pay of the majors. The US pilot pay was 13 to 35% lower than AA pay under the BKR contract. . http://aviationblog.dallasnews.com/2...ml/#more-11561
Do you really not know this?
There is a huge amount of financial analysis which is readily available which points to the US's lower labor costs as the only reason its profitable. Here is a good example: http://beta.fool.com/adamathm/2013/0...-they-s/22495/ A quote from this article (which is indisputable correct): "In spite of the apparently strong earnings results, US Airways is not a stock that I am interested in owning. The company faces a very unstable situation because it has a heavily unionized workforce that is significantly underpaid relative to the competition. US Airways has benefited from its labor group's militancy, because they have been unable to agree upon and ratify new labor contracts for many years. While workers at competitors like Delta (NYSE: DAL), United (NYSE: UAL), and even bankrupt AMR (OTC: AAMRQ.PK) have gotten big raises, US Airways employees are working under bankruptcy-era contracts."
This is the guy you want to control your future?????
Its hard to discuss things with someone who obviously is entirely unaware of what Parker has done with LCC, and how LCC was "profitable."
Actually DOJ is resource constrained. The "hope" of AA/USs lawyers was to blitz the DOJ with a quick trial and overwhelm them. Judge Kollar's appointment basically ends that strategy.
Kollar's pick makes it even more likely that this trial will come and end quickly. We'll know before thanksgiving. There is no way in hell she's going to delay it till march.
Aug 26, 2013, 3:05 pm
#2523
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
I am not sure about being open with investors/employees is all about.
To circle back though, the main reason why DOJ has chosen to move to block this merger is that with an inferior network, LCC has competed by offering cheaper connection prices when the other airlines (DL, UA, AA) had lockstep pricing. LCC was offering these prices as they had to to fill the plane, given their weak network.
LCC taking over AA would eliminate the "ugly girl" and push up prices, which is why the merger will never be approved. 
Aug 26, 2013, 3:06 pm
#2524
Moderator: Coupon Connection & S.P.A.M
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Louisville, KY
Programs: Destination Unknown, TSA Disparager Diamond (LTDD)
Posts: 57,953
Could not care less. If AA were "Baldanzaized", it would be Chapter 7, not Chapter 11, and not profitable. Different culture, different market.
Aug 26, 2013, 3:08 pm
#2525
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
I would bet you a bottle of wine of choice there is no trial before thanksgiving, but there is no way you would ever pay off.
Aug 26, 2013, 3:38 pm
#2526
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DL: Silver; AA: EX PLAT; UA: Silver; HY: DIA; HH: DIA; MR: TIT
Posts: 1,708
[/
It's not the affair. It's that it was with an intern. I treat my interns like I would want my children to be treated. That's how a CEO is expected to treat INTERNS. There is a HUGE difference between an affair with a woman, employee, and intern. The two latter are far worse And reasons for being terminated.
Laura Bush killing someone in an accident is worse than a CEO having an affair with an intern? Accident vs premeditated perversion against someone your entrusted to protect? Gross.
It's not the affair. It's that it was with an intern. I treat my interns like I would want my children to be treated. That's how a CEO is expected to treat INTERNS. There is a HUGE difference between an affair with a woman, employee, and intern. The two latter are far worse And reasons for being terminated.
Laura Bush killing someone in an accident is worse than a CEO having an affair with an intern? Accident vs premeditated perversion against someone your entrusted to protect? Gross.
Aug 26, 2013, 3:40 pm
#2527
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DL: Silver; AA: EX PLAT; UA: Silver; HY: DIA; HH: DIA; MR: TIT
Posts: 1,708
Aug 26, 2013, 4:02 pm
#2528
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AS, US, Hilton, BA, DL, SPG, AA, VS
Posts: 1,628
That means that 70% of the UCC is held by non-union people organizations. 70% is more than 30%. The non-union members of the UCC probably care more about getting their $$ than they do about who's running the airline.
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I am absolutely amazed that people (both in the FF world and in the media) don't get this.
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I am absolutely amazed that people (both in the FF world and in the media) don't get this.
Last edited by JY1024; Aug 27, 2013 at 3:08 am Reason: moderator deleted response to now-deleted post
Aug 26, 2013, 4:12 pm
#2529
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New York
Programs: AA EXP 1.0mm, not sure where I am with hotels these days
Posts: 2,795
<moderator deleted response to now-deleted post>
It appears the judge who will hear the case has a full docket, thus the DOJ may have to defend its position on AA/US timetable. The DOJ trying to push the trial beyond the merger out date speaks for what it is on their part. Power politics.
It appears the judge who will hear the case has a full docket, thus the DOJ may have to defend its position on AA/US timetable. The DOJ trying to push the trial beyond the merger out date speaks for what it is on their part. Power politics.
Last edited by JY1024; Aug 27, 2013 at 3:09 am Reason: moderator deleted response to now-deleted post
Aug 26, 2013, 4:15 pm
#2530
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DL: Silver; AA: EX PLAT; UA: Silver; HY: DIA; HH: DIA; MR: TIT
Posts: 1,708
Aug 26, 2013, 4:15 pm
#2531
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: ATL
Programs: Delta PlM, 1M
Posts: 6,365
But if by chance I am wrong, will not they have to go to trial with the proposal as presently planned? Not dropping any DC gates or routes were they would get to 100%? Seams like that would be an easy win for DoJ if so.
And if they wish to submit some proposals to fix these glaring issues, this will have to go through DoJ for review. No way that gets done by Jan.
The early trial request is a Hail Marry pass to the court of public opinion. But D. Parker already screwed up the war on that front.
[Is that a mixed metaphor when used in 2 separate sentences?]
Aug 26, 2013, 4:21 pm
#2532
Join Date: Apr 2012
Programs: AAdvantage
Posts: 108
Personally, I don't see why they'd push Horton out. He's barely had a chance and yet has worked wonders. I suspect a lot of the creditors would be interested to see what he can do given the job permanently.
Aug 26, 2013, 4:25 pm
#2533
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: in the vicinity of SFO
Programs: AA 2MM (LT-PLT, PPro for this year)
Posts: 19,781
The industry has, and continues, to evolve each year with new entrants providing new services.
In other words, AT&T is NOT a monopoly.
There are choices for consumers beyond AT&T -- how about the cable providers like Time Warner, Comcast, etc. for phone/internet service?
How about internet telephony and providers like Vonage?
Wireless, the same holds true
If I was a satellite or cable tv customer, how about going to AT&T or Verizon for my multichannel programming service via Uverse or FIOS?
Prices are up, and most of the customer-unfriendly moves have stuck (although a few haven't, more under the threat of net-neutrality regulations than under market competition.)
The fact that the RBOCs now offer TV has not been enough competition to keep prices from rising or for there to be any other changes in the consumer's favor, absent regulation. That's especially true given that virtually all the promotions available require bundling of services ("triple play" packages, etc.)
Oh, I did not even discuss new giants such as Google.
[quioAT&T one of the last players standing, that is just comical -- and not true![/QUOTE]
You call the present situation robust competition? This is exactly the opposite of what deregulation "promised."
Aug 26, 2013, 4:27 pm
#2534
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DL: Silver; AA: EX PLAT; UA: Silver; HY: DIA; HH: DIA; MR: TIT
Posts: 1,708
Aug 26, 2013, 4:30 pm
#2535
Join Date: Feb 2008
Programs: 6 year GS, now 2MM Jeff-ugee, *wood LTPlt, SkyPeso PLT
Posts: 6,526
). He did not join DOJ for a weak case, or a quick fold... he expects to win. http://about.bloomberglaw.com/legal-...siness-of-law/
). A judge with a full calendar does not have a two week hole just sitting there for Douggy, nor is Judge Kollar in a case with informal discovery concluded in May, in a major complex case filed in August, going to set a November trial date...Personally I do not see how one plans on getting this trial done before her Jan trial.
But if by chance I am wrong, will not they have to go to trial with the proposal as presently planned? Not dropping any DC gates or routes were they would get to 100%? Seams like that would be an easy win for DoJ if so.
And if they wish to submit some proposals to fix these glaring issues, this will have to go through DoJ for review. No way that gets done by Jan.
The early trial request is a Hail Marry pass to the court of public opinion. But D. Parker already screwed up the war on that front.
But if by chance I am wrong, will not they have to go to trial with the proposal as presently planned? Not dropping any DC gates or routes were they would get to 100%? Seams like that would be an easy win for DoJ if so.
And if they wish to submit some proposals to fix these glaring issues, this will have to go through DoJ for review. No way that gets done by Jan.
The early trial request is a Hail Marry pass to the court of public opinion. But D. Parker already screwed up the war on that front.
Pilots who were counting on a quick cash out, investors who were counting on higher stock values, and Jeff Smisik who was counting on consolidation leading to less competition and higher prices, are SOL...