Xero

I complemented the data and her hard work.

What I'm saying is that the data is not representative of the average AA EXP.

mingw

I agree. MRers buy cheap tickets, even if they buy close to travel date it must be a light load flight. while EXPs travelling for business may buy more expensive fare close to travel -- that is, heavier load flight, thus lower upgrade chance.

2millionquest

Especially when the data collection is still ongoing. I can't devote my every waking minute to this not-so-little project and I've been exceedingly busy the last 10 days or so. There is still quite a bit of data waiting to be input into the spreadsheet (currently 12 PMs in my inbox) and more still to be collected from people who haven't yet finished sending it in.

I'm sorry so many are so dismissive of this data, but I've come to the conclusion that if the data doesn't support the view of whatever someone is trying to assert, then, obviously, the data is "flawed." Real data doesn't matter here on FT -- what matters is that an individual poster can whine, rant, kvetch, and be righteously indignant over a perceived disservice. No amount of hard data will ever change that!

mathlete

I absolutely disagree with this statement. It's not a given that the cheap fares always sell out, or even that those buying them are inherently unprofitable.

Gary Leff has made a strong argument in the past for why a pure rewards:revenue model isn't necessarily ideal: http://boardingarea.com/blogs/viewfr...sies-and-fact/

Ultimately, as Liza pointed out, and as I have stated many times, AA has significantly more data to base these decisions on than we do. At some point we should assume they aren't complete morons.

2millionquest

How do you know that? How do you that the "average" AA EXP isn't someone who takes advantage of as many promos as possible, flies on his/her own dime, and always pays the cheapest possible fare? Where is your hard data to support your assertion?

Really? You think the people who contributed their data aren't "real customers" of AA? Seriously? What the heck are they, then? Phantoms? Ghosts? Flying Wallendas?

And why don't "real customers" contribute to a statistics-gathering experiment? Too important? Too busy? Just above all that nonsense?

Or is it because if you did contribute your data, you might find that the resulting stats don't support your assertion that you -- a self-defined "real customer" -- are somehow being cheated out of your God-given right to an upgrade by the bazillions of "fake customers" AA flies around the world every day?

Actually, you didn't; you complimented mingw. But thanks anyway

AAExPlat

What I appreciate most about your posts is their even, thoughtful tone. Clearly you are an emotionally stable person who is able to think through and consider other people's viewpoints.

Ambraciot

The post you are responding to is not remarkable for this board, neither notably hyperbolic, nor grounded and dispassionate. As such your response should probably be saved for a different post, since there have been at least half a dozen more appropriate ones in the last few hours.

Science Goy

Ok, but there are some here making the argument that MRers crowd out other EXPs for upgrades. MRers are reporting an upgrade success rate of 86% on flights that are by definition heavy with mileage runners. Is the conclusion then that MRers are actually crowding out other customers on flights that MRers don't take? Because that seems like an odd twist of logic.

mingw

say, 16 EXP MRers book one flight 4-6 weeks out. now they get all first seats and report 100% success rate.

other travelers (business trip buy ticket 1-2 weeks out), get 0%...

extreme case, but this shows that those reported success rate, may not reflect non-MRers'.

AAExPlat

Ding ding ding! That is exactly what I have been (apparently less successfully) trying to say in this thread.

Science Goy

So you're deeply concerned about success rates for non-mileage runners on DFW/ORD to SFO/LAX routes in January? Because January's been over for more than a week. If you're really suggesting that mileage runners make up a significant fraction of AA passengers outside of those dates/routes, I think it might be time to take a little break from Flyertalk.

Stripy

Again, there is this continuous assertion that "high revenue EXPs" are not getting upgrades thanks to other EXPs and this, IMO, is simply not true.

As I've said before, if you're a genuine "high revenue" customer you're already buying F or full fare Y and in both those cases no "EXP lite" can impinge on which cabin they sit in. Also, I don't believe for a single second that all bookings done close to departure are "high revenue" bookings so just because you book a week out does not make you "high revenue".
There have been comments on other threads along the lines of "I booked my RT, for my flight tomorrow, last week for $200 and I'm hoping for the upgrade"....that comment, paraphrased as it is, was referring to LAX-ORD in January...supposedly a packed out route....and yet the ticket was $100 EW. Hardly high revenue is it?

All this noise about so-called high revenue PAX being done out of upgrades is just that....noise.

mingw

since no MRers would buy Y/B fare, who buy those tickets are not affected by any of them. but many business travelers are not "high-revenue", they buy M or L etc. discount coach several days out, they will get affected.

Stripy

No argument here. It goes without saying that if there are more EXPs then competition for upgrades will be greater...all I'm trying to put to rest is this idea that it's the poor, hard done by but highly desirable "high revenue" traveler that will "suffer" leading to some sort of mass exodus to a competitor. The fact is that someone travels in anything lower than full fare Y they're unlikely to be in the "high revenue" bracket of AA PAX....and if they're not high revenue, then they're just like the rest of us so I don't see why anyone should worry about their upgrade chances.

makfan

I did have a stretch where I was buying L, W and V fares quite a bit. Those certainly are more than Q and O, but not nearly as much as Y. This is the kind of passenger who might get hurt by the increasing elite ranks.

I do think we'll never really know what impact these promos have on the upgrade experience down the line. If somebody is earning their 100K EQMs by Feb. 28, are they going to fly regularly after that, or are they going to fly 2 or 3 int'l RTs spread over the year? If the latter, then they don't really affect me very much on my usual twice monthly domestic transcon RTs. I haven't really figured out the reason to fly 100K EQMs in two months and then effectively stop flying, but I know some will do just that.

I never really got upset by the people earning lifetime status largely on non-flying activity. If they want to achieve lifetime PLT to enjoy a few perks for their 2 round trips a year, it's no skin off my nose.