orbitmic

I wouldn't use the fact that the new service is low cost and likely to try and encroach on the segments largely targeted by SS or UU to suggest that this does not represent competition for AF as well.

First, in terms of the Caribbean, it is just a case of one additional competitor, and there is frankly not much between Corsair, Air Caraibes, and AF as yet anyway, it is not as though the COI Y product was fabulously luxurious or spacious and those routes are important to AF's bottom line.

Second, if there is any truth in the notion that the new airline would try to do a Norwegian on key North American routes, then this can also have an impact on competition and prices on some major transatlantic route. Will it be a huge impact? Certainly not, but it just continues to keep pressure on AF on yet another front at a time the airline would love to have some "safe" segments.

As for laughing off Rochet's past failures, yes, sure, the man has gone through many fiascos, but two worthwhile observations: 1) many a famously successful business(wo)man first had one or many humiliating failures on his/her cv. I'm not saying that this will be Rochet, but I always get nervous describing anyone as a serial loser as a result, 2) some of the admittedly failed experiments like AOM and Air Liberte still changed the French aviation scene for good. The airlines might have gone bankrupt, but they also cost AF a monopolistic domestic position for good. That is no small effect.

irishguy28

It should probably be noted here that AF is one of the more vocal opponents to Norwegian's Irish subsidiary, NAI (Norwegian Air International), being allowed to operate transatlantic service. They presumably fear that NAI would similarly launch transatlantic service from ORY eventually (I do not know if Norwegian has any such plans).

Quite simply, AFKL appears to like the status quo [though they would much rather return to the status-quo of several decades ago!], and they don't want ANY new entrants anywhere! Rather than compete, they would just prefer to retain "their" market, "their" customers, and not have to make any effort in order to keep things the way they are.

bodory

That is one reason why that new airline is a bad news for AF. While it is true that AF NEV4 J is better than TX's Madras and that AF M COI is better than SS Y, the Caribbean network essentially is driven by price. As AF has the highest cost structure, that is a new threat for them.

+1

The man may have his detractors, he has a deep knowledge of the business.

Goldorak

Very true.

Goldorak

A bit OT, but showing how active are the LCC's. Here's the last (crazy) idea of Norwegian : flights (on 738) between FDF/PTP to the US east coast (BOS, JFK, BWI). I say crazy, because all attempts to bring US tourists to Martinique or Guadeloupe have failed miserably because of the crappy service (and prices) in those French islands compared to neighboring islands. So likely another coming failure but...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...bean/29261013/

bodory

All is not about hotels : Airbnb, Abritel and other are working quite well in Martinique actually. And Le MArin is the largest marina in the Caribbean for boat charter.

Even Air Canada has increased its frequencies to the island.

Sorry for OT.

San Gottardo

... but it's still the same local people, isn't it? Just asking, as I don't know myself too well. Been to the islands a few times only, and was always made felt as if I bothered them. Nature is beautiful and the "French touch" (at least the positive side of it, less so the also very French Touch HLMs of Pointe-à-Pitre) makes them interesting, and knowing that I am France I don't have too much of a "the customer is king" expectation anyway. But there seemed to be a lot that was quite happy to make people unwelcome and go on living of social transfers. I found that especially in Gouadeloupe, less so in Martinique.

Question to those who know the Islands better: were my impressions complete outlyers? Because if they were not, then American tourists i) may not only be difficult to get there because the islands aren't known at all in the US tourist market ii) but once they actually are there they may certainly decide that next time it's Aruba or Barbados again.

But maybe these kind of subtleties are not as clear to some network planner sitting in a Fjord where the sun doesn't shine 3 months of the year ;-)

bodory

You have a very valid point on the cultural differences between Guadeloupe and Martinique. As an example, it is not surprising that organisations such as Liyannaj Kont Pwofitasyon were born and developed in one of the two islands only.

Back in 20+ years ago, North American and European tourists used to come there but were definitely exasperated by the not so welcoming atmosphere in hotels and the gap with British and American islands.

But things have changed both on the offer and the demand sides, not to mention the economy and habits :
- while hotels there haven't deeply improved, they nevertheless had to adapt themselves to the Santo Domingo's competition on the all inclusive market ; still, they are limited with the cost of labour ;
- as you mentioned, these islands offer some of the most beautiful landscapes in the Caribbean and are much larger than St-Marteen and St-Barth : sports such as kitesurf (non existent 20 year ago) and mountain hiking attract a significant part of travelers ;
- locals realized they were potentially sat on a gold mine and consequently did invest tons of money from mainland tax incentives in building modern and very comfortable houses they rent ; I was there recently and believe me, prices easily hit more than 5000 EUR a week for a non-catered waterfront villa ;
- smart individuals have acquired skills to properly deal with these new customers.

Also, one has to bear in mind that there is a demand from the locals to fly to North America, would it be for tourism (East and West Coast), studies (Canada) or anecdotal winter sports (Canada as well).

Actually, one of the main barrier IMO to get back the NA and European travelers is the language : hardly a few of the locals speak proper English.

Goldorak

True, but this is a completely different business case. AC flies there from Québec only (not from the other provinces) and so targets the French-speaking Canadians to travel to French-speaking islands. The U.S. market is a completely different story. As I said, several attempts have been made during the last 20 years and they all failed. This new one will have the novelty to be very cheap, so we'll see if it works, but I sincerely doubt.

brunos

Indeed.
The French Martinique and Guadeloupe have a very bad reputation in the USA, and there are so many Caribbean alternatives.

orbitmic

I would be a bit more hesitant to draw conclusions here. Sure, there is plenty wrong with Guadeloupe and Martinique. At the same time, there is plenty wrong with many other islands (including some with far more appalling reputations of physical danger) that still sustain some effective and money making airlinks.

What DY seems to me to be doing here, is to target a niche market where others do not fly and which will get them some unique Caribbean links. They also do it at a time when the French Antilles are acutely aware of their wasted touristic potential notably with regards to their wealthy neighbour.

Is the idea to have PTP replace Barbados? Undoubtedly not. Could the route attract enough customers to be profitable and help both the airline and the local tourism industry? I would not exclude that it may.

Mokshu

Regarding Norwegian's move, it's a bold one but it makes sense.

Instead of having to ground aircraft in the winter, they put it there to bring some trafic between MQ/GP and the US. Operating costs are relatively cheap and many people from the French Antilles are interested in going to the US, especially with low fares such as ~80usd per leg. Earning money on that route during winter should not be that difficult. Maybe I'm optimistic but who knows

bodory

French newspaper La Tribune announced that EasyJet is likely to move its operations from Orly Sud to Orly Ouest in 2016.

Goldorak

Surprising. I don't know where they'll find the space for U2 ops. ORY W is completely overcrowded. They'd better move TO to W to free-up some space in S for U2. It would make much more sense.

HasteFlier

I agree - unless AF/Hop gives up some slots (which would also be surprising), there's not much space in W...
I also remember reading that a connecting building between W and S is being built - this might create some additional space, maybe this is related ? I don't remember the target opening date, but I doubt it would be 2016.