New route guesses with 7M8 and 789?
Sep 26, 2018, 8:43 am
#46
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,444
The business class hubs in YVR and YYZ would not be needed if 787 flights are not operated out of there. The initial emphasis is likely to build more routes out of YYC to begin with to simplify operations until knowledge of the aircraft operation is ingrained. As more aircraft arrive and start to displace current 767 routes, then the 3 major hubs and other secondary airports will see more and more 787 routes as the fleet builds.
Sep 26, 2018, 3:04 pm
#47
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: YYC, Canada
Programs: AC 35k
Posts: 1,898
Sep 26, 2018, 3:15 pm
#48
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: YVR
Programs: AC 75K, BA Gold, Marriott Platinum, National EE, Sixt Platinum, Hertz PC, AVIS PC
Posts: 1,912
YVR-LGW is a few miles further than YVR-HND, currently offered by WestJet for $311 on quite a few days in Oct.
Also a quick look at the ANA annual report (https://www.ana.co.jp/group/en/inves...17/17_E_00.pdf), their 2017 unit cost (¥/ASK) of 9.0 equates to a CASM of 15.9c CAD at current exchange rates, compared with 13.1c for WestJet in 2017. They will have higher costs and revenues for business class tickets, but this will be more than offset by their longer stage length. Basically WestJet can make more profit going head-to-head with ANA at the same ticket price.
Ron.
Sep 26, 2018, 6:02 pm
#49
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,444
If you take out the excessive UK departure tax (APD) that is $135 compared with $30 for HND, the WestJet YVR-LGW round trip is $680 on quite a few days before adjusting for APD or $575 to compare with the YVR-HND return. With WestJet having a lower operating cost, they shouldn’t have any problem being competitive with ANA who’s cost base is more comparable to Air Canada.
Sep 26, 2018, 10:06 pm
#51
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: IAH, YYC
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 753
Therefore, I think either a YVR/YYC to NRT/HND route would be an obvious fit. They could bring the normal price down to $800-ish, and still fill the plane with a mix of O/D, and connections from all over Canada, but especially the west. YYC-NRT is only a little further than YYC-LGW, and they seem to be able to make the LGW route work just fine with $700 fares and a plane which burns ~15-20% more fuel per seat mile.
Sep 26, 2018, 11:34 pm
#52
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,444
A year or so ago I did some calculations that indicated that US$80 is the magic number for the price of oil - below that number the 262 seat 763 has the lower seat mile cost, above that number the 320 seat 789 has the lower seat mile cost, based on a 4000 mile stage length, above that stage length the 789 is more economical, below the 763 is.
Sep 27, 2018, 8:01 am
#53
Original Poster
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: YYC, Canada
Programs: AC 35k
Posts: 1,898
Therefore, I think either a YVR/YYC to NRT/HND route would be an obvious fit. They could bring the normal price down to $800-ish, and still fill the plane with a mix of O/D, and connections from all over Canada, but especially the west. YYC-NRT is only a little further than YYC-LGW, and they seem to be able to make the LGW route work just fine with $700 fares and a plane which burns ~15-20% more fuel per seat mile.
Sep 27, 2018, 11:30 am
#54
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 980
Sep 27, 2018, 1:23 pm
#55
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: YVR
Programs: AC 75K, BA Gold, Marriott Platinum, National EE, Sixt Platinum, Hertz PC, AVIS PC
Posts: 1,912
Sep 27, 2018, 2:42 pm
#56
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,444
Sep 29, 2018, 4:22 pm
#57
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: YYC
Programs: Hilton Diamond, Fairmont Plat, IHG Spire, SPG Gold, WS Gold, Hertz PC, National E Elite,
Posts: 2,768
If WS does YYC-NRT you can kiss AC 010 goodbye. Hopefully WS offers new service and doesn't just try to poach AC's routes or that of other carriers. We don't need YYC to be a fortress hub for WS. Hopefully they also stay out of AMS, FRA and PEK. Alternatives would be HND, PVG and CDG.
Oct 1, 2018, 10:12 am
#59
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: YYC
Programs: AC Basic, UA MP Gold, Marriott Gold Elite, SPG Gold, Amex Platinum
Posts: 3,008
I'm assuming you have Nexus, it took my son 30 mins to get through coming off WS2 with my wife and I in Sept, as he doesn't have a Nexus card. We went straight to the Nexus machines with only about 1/3 of them being used at that time, then straight through the middle lane without talking to an immigration officer, just handing the customs printout in as we exited the baggage hall.
This is especially important at land crossing. If one person doesn't have their nexus card, the group must use the regular lanes.
Again the context is important as inadvertent loss of Nexus cards resulting from attempting to split the family into Nexus / non-Nexus subgroups.
The other factor in pushing frequent travelers to an inefficient routing is because they desire trying out the new airline. In this case the YVR based traveler would go through YYC to try out WS new premium international service. This is especially true if the flyer has a positive experience on other WS flights or if the traveler doesn't like the incumbent airlines.
Again, the point is that in absolute number of people, the market is small. However because this group travels very frequently their impact on traffic is huge.
With the re-opening of the infield terminal through T3 for groundside operations, yes there is capacity for additional international flights.
AMS makes perfect sense if WS can do a JV with AF/KLM, and this JV is on WS program. Further, its a Canadian that is CEO of AF/KLM Group that has intimate knowledge of Western Canada to Europe market. Further this CEO needs to make a number of quick changes to improve the bottom line. Finally this same CEO of AF/KL was pilloried by YEG Airport and YEG mayor when YEG-LHR got cancelled due to unprofitable route resulting from competition. While this CEO is too professional to let personal grudge get into business dealings, if YEG-AMS has troubles there will be know hesitation to cut the route in favour better opportunities.
To sum it up; WS flying YYC-AMS daily as a joint venture with AF/KLM make perfect sense, especially if YEG traffic must connect through YYC. WS would put its code onto KL YVR-AMS. For YYZ-AMS the companies would split services each with 1 daily flight.
Oct 1, 2018, 10:27 am
#60
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Calgary
Posts: 1,444
A couple of procedural points that Aerobod probably all ready knows, but the additional context is worth repeating for the less informed readers. What Aerobod did in having wife and himself use the Nexus lanes while son used the regular lane is possible only because son is over 18 and has flown out of the family nest. It is a common way for Nexus users to lose their membership by dividing the family along Nexus vs non-Nexus paths. If the kids are living at home or are under 18, the whole family must cross the border as a group, so the Nexus holders cannot use the Nexus lanes however they can use the Nexus card if originating from the USA.
This is especially important at land crossing. If one person doesn't have their nexus card, the group must use the regular lanes.
Again the context is important as inadvertent loss of Nexus cards resulting from attempting to split the family into Nexus / non-Nexus subgroups.
This is especially important at land crossing. If one person doesn't have their nexus card, the group must use the regular lanes.
Again the context is important as inadvertent loss of Nexus cards resulting from attempting to split the family into Nexus / non-Nexus subgroups.