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Originally Posted by sbm12
(Post 10471934)
With the 2x (or in DLs case some higher multiple) options, which carrier really has a "nothing" option these days? In reality, most of those programs actually have better values on their points, even on those "rich" seats. Assuming a cost of acquiring the points at about a penny each (which is a commonly used number), cashing in 250K points for a J reward to Europe is a pretty reasonable $2500 spend investment. Way better than VX's $50K spend for the cheapest transcon option. Even at 2cpm that same reward for $5K in spend is probably less than the ticket would cost to buy for cash. And if the standard reward is available then you get those rewards for a much lower spend. There is a tremendous upside potential in the legacy programs if you look at it from a straight financial perspective.
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My calculations make eleVAte awards appear MUCH better value than MP awards when you are talking straight miles/$ -> award ratio. Especially when you compare the cost of flying on either airline and especially when you take into account the overall experience.
I attempted to do an apples to apples comparison, so I did not include upgrades and had to use standard awards on UA as VX do not apply blackout dates and waitlisting. To compare to a saver award, divide the UA miles required etc by 2. Also, I used a return itinerary as a one-way would disadvantage UA greatly. I also did not include elite earning bonuses as eleVAte does not have elite status levels and the cost of achieving elite status is difficult to quantify when there are so many possibilities. For these calculations I used SFO->JFK on 1/14 and JFK->SFO on 1/21. --------------------------------------------------------------------- $ cost to fly this route (return): Y (Main Cabin / Discount Economy), F (First Class) VX: $418, $1948 UA: $529, $5449 --------------------------------------------------------------------- points/miles earned: Y, F VX: 2090, 9740 UA: 5172, 7758 --------------------------------------------------------------------- points/miles required: Y, F VX: 19441, 90604 UA: 50000, 120000 --------------------------------------------------------------------- $ spend required for these points/miles (VX: 5 points per $ spent, $0.0215 redemption value): Y, F VX: $3888, $18120 UA: $5104, $84187 UA*: $4618, $57105 *adjusted values for elite earning bonus (elite statuses will be achieved whilst completing flights from 'new' member status) --------------------------------------------------------------------- # flights required to achieve this award Y, F VX: 9.3, 9.3 UA: 9.65, 15.45 UA*: 8.73, 10.48 *adjusted values for elite earning bonus (elite statuses will be achieved whilst completing flights from 'new' member status) --------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know if I have made any errors, have not been objective enough in my investigation or you believe this comparison is unfair. |
Originally Posted by nermaljcat
(Post 10472629)
My calculations make eleVAte appear MUCH better value than MP when you are talking straight miles/$ -> award ratio. Especially when you compare the cost of flying on either airline and especially when you take into account the overall experience.
I attempted to do an apples to apples comparison, so I did not include upgrades and had to use standard awards on UA as VX do not apply blackout dates and waitlisting. To compare to a saver award, divide the UA miles required etc by 2. Also, I used a return itinerary as a one-way would disadvantage UA greatly. I also did not include elite earning bonuses as eleVAte does not have elite status levels and the is a cost of achieving elite status is difficult to quantify when there are so many possibilities. For these calculations I used SFO->JFK on 1/14 and JFK->SFO on 1/21. --------------------------------------------------------------------- $ cost to fly this route (return): Y (Main Cabin / Discount Economy), C (Cabin Select / Discount Business), F (First Class) VX: $418, $929, $1948 UA: $529, $1969, $5449 --------------------------------------------------------------------- points/miles earned: Y, C, F VX: 2090, 4640, 9740 UA: 2586, 2586, 3879 NOTE: using discount economy and discount business increases UA's $/mile ratio, but discount business fares (Z) do not earn 150% miles (http://www.united.com/page/article/0,8566,3122,00.html). --------------------------------------------------------------------- points/miles required: Y, C, F VX: 19441, 43162, 90604 UA: 50000, 90000, 120000 --------------------------------------------------------------------- $ spend required for these points/miles (VX: 5 points per $ spent, $0.0215 redemption value): Y, C, F VX: $3888, $8632, $18120 UA: $10209, $68521, $168374 --------------------------------------------------------------------- # flights required to achieve this award Y, C, F VX: 9.3, 9.3, 9.3 UA: 19.3, 34.8, 30.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Let me know if I have made any errors, have not been objective enough in my investigation or you believe this comparison is unfair. First, there is no comparison between "cabin select" and UA PS C. One is coach and the other is business. Second, it only requires 45,000 miles to redeem in PS C; not 90,000. A 1P or 1K flying paid PS C earns about 12,500 RDMs per round trip (15,000 in F), so a UA flyer earns a free business class ticket every four round trips in C or $8,000 if you are buying it at a discount. A 1k or 1P flying coach will get a free ticket after five round trips, which can be had for as low as $2,000. The experience is likely to be better on VX but UA has a much better schedule for business travel. Plus, on UA, you can get a free international business or first class award (an $8,000 to $14,000 value) if you don't want to redeem domestically, something that is completely unavailable on VX. So the issue for the business traveler becomes: is the VX F experience so much better than UA PS C or F so as to justify foregoing an annual $8-$14,000 benefit? UA service is pretty bad right now so it may be, but UA isn't the only competition offering this benefit that VX has decided to ignore. |
Originally Posted by nermaljcat
(Post 10472629)
Let me know if I have made any errors, have not been objective enough in my investigation or you believe this comparison is unfair.
I did have one miscalculation in my numbers from before in that the spend for the ~50K points needed for a O/W VX F redemption is $10K, not $50K, so that clearly puts a lot of my number WAY off. Whoopsie. In my defense, I did get it right up in my initial reply on the thread (post #13). Still, the spend is a fixed $20K minimum to get the R/T F reward. To get sufficient miles on a legacy carrier can happen for much less money (50K reward = ~$5K spend). And ignoring elite bonuses doesn't make any sense just because VX doesn't offer such a benefit. Why should MP's value be diminished because of something that VX doesn't offer?? |
Originally Posted by sbm12
(Post 10473513)
And ignoring elite bonuses doesn't make any sense just because VX doesn't offer such a benefit. Why should MP's value be diminished because of something that VX doesn't offer??
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Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10473599)
Also, because VX's points expire at 18 months regardless of other activity, the only people who will have enough points to redeem an F award are those who fly enough to achieve elite status on other airlines. The 18 month expiration date combined with the $20,000 spend requirement means that VX F awards are not available to more than 99% of the flying public. At least on the legacies you can spend several years saving up for an occasional nice experience.
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
(Post 10456433)
Like has been said before, Rapid Rewards with mood lighting.
Well, eventually they'll add international carriers to it, and it'll be better- though I suspect it will never have the sweet, sweet opportunities to cash in using milage runs, like old-school legacy programs do. |
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Everyone's naturally comparing the program to the legacy FF programs that are continually being devalued, and I'm not sure that's the right idea. The VX program isn't trying to be an easy source of free first class travel, and I think people are expecting it to be. They'd rather sell those seats or the upgrades. In lieu of that, the program does make main cabin points travel competitive, however, and you have the ability to upgrade those relatively cheaply based on availability, which is something you can't do on the legacies. Keep in mind the intent of the program is to offer more than just points for flights. The 'Enjoy your Rewards' section, the possibilities of using points for on-board spend plus international parters that haven't been announced are all unknowns in this program that will make for something better still to come. |
Originally Posted by articos
(Post 10475906)
Exactly, EC and Kiwi.
Everyone's naturally comparing the program to the legacy FF programs that are continually being devalued, and I'm not sure that's the right idea. The VX program isn't trying to be an easy source of free first class travel, and I think people are expecting it to be. They'd rather sell those seats or the upgrades. In lieu of that, the program does make main cabin points travel competitive, however, and you have the ability to upgrade those relatively cheaply based on availability, which is something you can't do on the legacies. Keep in mind the intent of the program is to offer more than just points for flights. The 'Enjoy your Rewards' section, the possibilities of using points for on-board spend plus international parters that haven't been announced are all unknowns in this program that will make for something better still to come. In every loyalty scheme I've seen there is a "prime" redemption track, the one with the best value for the points. For travel programs that is inevitably travel rewards in that program. No one collects airline points for the magazine subscriptions. Even the SPG => Airline transfer is generally a devaluation of the SPG points. And betting on future partners seems like a very big gamble when deciding today how to accrue and bank credits for travel. Yes, they make Y rewards reasonably cheap to get at. The 10% yield at that level actually isn't terrible. But anyone flying with the goal of just redeeming for another cheap, short trip isn't trying hard enough. There are bigger and better things to be had. I get that VX wants to sell their F seats. I don't blame them, as they need every penny they can scrounge up (just like every other airline). But that doesn't make it a better program to earn in. As for upgrades on Y rewards, NW still does that for their elites, but I expect that will end with the DL merger. |
Thanks for your feedback, I have adjusted my numbers as follows:
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10473439)
There are many problems with your post, but here are two:
First, there is no comparison between "cabin select" and UA PS C. One is coach and the other is business.
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10473439)
Second, it only requires 45,000 miles to redeem in PS C; not 90,000. A 1P or 1K flying paid PS C earns about 12,500 RDMs per round trip (15,000 in F), so a UA flyer earns a free business class ticket every four round trips in C or $8,000 if you are buying it at a discount. A 1k or 1P flying coach will get a free ticket after five round trips, which can be had for as low as $2,000.
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10473439)
The experience is likely to be better on VX but UA has a much better schedule for business travel. Plus, on UA, you can get a free international business or first class award (an $8,000 to $14,000 value) if you don't want to redeem domestically, something that is completely unavailable on VX.
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10473439)
So the issue for the business traveler becomes: is the VX F experience so much better than UA PS C or F so as to justify foregoing an annual $8-$14,000 benefit? UA service is pretty bad right now so it may be, but UA isn't the only competition offering this benefit that VX has decided to ignore.
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Originally Posted by sbm12
(Post 10473513)
The most obvious error I see is that the "earning" you have for UA reflects a O/W earn for a R/T ticket, so your numbers are all off by a factor of 2x. Plus the assumption that one will have to redeem at the 2x level rather than the discount/standard/whatever level sets a bias against the traditional program. That is not a situation where all passengers will have to go one way or another.
Originally Posted by sbm12
(Post 10473513)
And ignoring elite bonuses doesn't make any sense just because VX doesn't offer such a benefit. Why should MP's value be diminished because of something that VX doesn't offer??
I know some ppl can game the system to earn 1K, but you would have to assume everyone had the time and spare cash to do a whole bunch of MRs. Plus there is the inconvenience and valuable time lost (expensive for those of us who charge by the hour). I had to fly a few transpacs in Y (at ~AU$3000 a hit) to earn 1P status, I would not do that just to gain a better earning ratio. I'm open to suggestions. I left it out because I could not accurately factor that into the comparison. |
VX listens
There was a bunch of press about elevate redemption today, including this little note in one of the articles:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...5%7D&dist=hppr *Coming in 2009: Members also will be able to combine points and dollars to redeem online. Members will be able to tailor the in-flight experience by loading a favorite play-list or videogame avatar. |
Originally Posted by nermaljcat
(Post 10476316)
Thanks for your feedback, I have adjusted my numbers as follows:
Removed CS and C values as no comparison has been made. I will change as soon as UA removes blackout dates on saver awards. VX awards can be redeemed on any flight (equivalent to standard award). This is something else to keep in mind, but the value of better schedules cannot be supported by numbers. Spend the same amount on VX and you will also receive an annual benefit. This will be different, but the price you pay to fly will also differ. VX just went from having no frequent flyer program to having the lowest value frequent flyer program in North America. |
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10477286)
UA/AA C is really the best comparison with VX F.
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10477286)
You may want to note that UA offers something that VX doesn't: the ability to redeem at 45,000 miles for a capacity controlled reward. That is not an insignificant benefit and similar awards are offered by every other airline competing with VX.
Originally Posted by rjque
(Post 10477286)
Wrong. 1P and 1K can be had fairly cheaply if you fly coach, and they both come with the potential benefit of a $8,000-14,000 ticket (or two) every year.
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