Help with Winter and Avoiding ORD
 

I'm taking an important exam that is only offered in a limited number of cities once a year (the JLPT, for the curious) this December 2. When I have taken other levels of the exam in years past, I have always done so in Chicago, but have had narrow misses with ORD weather and missing the exam both times.

This year, for various reasons, I need to make absolutely sure that I actually take the test. In addition, while in the past I have always allowed myself a buffer day (leaving myself an extra day before I need to be there), that isn't going to be an option this time.

I'm in CLE, and I need to get to leave in the afternoon/evening on Dec 1 to arrive in either ATL, DCA, HNL, SFO, LAX, or NYC in time for an exam in the early afternoon on Dec 2. Using UA or US, if possible.

I don't have nearly as much experience with this sort of thing as many on here, so I figure I would ask for some advice for what the best way to do this is without getting grounded due to bad weather.

Thanks in advance!

On UA, I would say your best best is a non-stop to IAD.

Were your narrow-misses around the first of December too? That's really pre-snow season, and IAD is far more of a wreck if they get snow than ORD. If you stick with mainline flights, you greatly reduce your risk of getting cancelled/severely delayed (not that it's not possible).

If this trip is as important as you describe and if you can afford changeable tickets. I suggest you make two comletely refundable flight reservations - preferably morning flights. One to DC and one to ATL. Take the one that is on time and if both are late, start driving to NYC.

It's kind of a mixed bag.

For example, we did get snow on December 1 in 2006, 2005, 2004... but not much of the same in previous years dating back to 1997.

December 1 dates in past 10 years:

2006 - Snow (low: 19, high: 36)
2005 - Snow (low: 19, high: 28)
2004 - Snow (low: 27, high: 33)
2003 - No snow or rain (low: 30, high: 41)
2002 - No snow or rain (low: 14, high: 36)
2001 - Rain (low: 35, high: 42)
2000 - Rain and snow (low: 34, high: 37)
1999 - No snow or rain (low: 30, high: 45)
1998 - No snow or rain (low: 36, high: 57)
1997 - Rain (low: 37, high: 41)

DC is a 6 hour drive from Cleveland.. I would book a flight and keep this as a backup.. Better yet, just drive..

Unfortunately, I can only register for the exam in one city, or I would do just that. :(

Hmm, it'd be interesting to see a similar analysis for IAD.

IAD weather history on December 1 dates in past 10 years:

2006 - Rain (low: 43, high: 75)
2005 - Rain (low: 28, high: 42)
2004 - Rain (low: 35, high: 56)
2003 - No snow or rain (low: 35, high: 54)
2002 - No snow or rain (low: 21, high: 36)
2001 - Fog (low: 48, high: 72)
2000 - No snow or rain (low: 27, high: 46)
1999 - No snow or rain (low: 23, high: 37)
1998 - No snow or rain (low: 37, high: 64)
1997 - No snow or rain (low: 34, high: 48)

Definitely do DC. Worse comes to worst, you can just drive.

you're in CLE and can take the test in DCA? Why not take Amtrak or Greyhound? If it's that important to you I wouldn't chance it to the airlines - too many factors out of your control. You probably don't want to drive due to the time and using Amtrak or Greyhound gives you additional time to study/sleep on your way to the test.

Hate to say this, if the exam is this important to you I would look into a non-stop option. You never know what the airports will be like in Dec, and even if you avoid ORD and fly to IAD the aircraft or crew could be affected as the weather causes problems elsewhere in the system.

Concur with UA959. However, IAD-CLE is an express route. So, if there are any delays or issues at IAD, you can bet your dollar that the UX flights are going to be delayed/held/canceled to make room for the mainline flights.

I'd book the 10.25 if you can. Otherwise, the 2.26 flight, but then you might hit some rush-hour traffic getting from IAD to DCA. Don't book the 7.05, that'd be too late to drive there (from CLE) if something goes wrong.

Trying to predict the weather 24 hours out is a leap. 5 Months out? Why are you wasting your effort and sanity trying to do that?

Buy a ticket, mainline if possible, as the prior post was correct about cancellations. Then the week before start checking 7 to 10 day weather forecasts. If it looks bad THEN you can start looking for alternatives. Buy a train ticket, maybe even your plans will allow for driving the day before. But trying to predict flights and weather delays now? Weather at both ORD and IAD could be perfect, and your flight still delayed because of bad weather in DEN. WAY too many possible scenarios to try. Buy a ticket and have a little faith. :)

I'd love to: but unfortunately, the Amtrak trains all leave at ungodly hours of the morning and don't arrive until afternoon. In my case, I have another exam in the morning on December 1 and the exam in DC on the 2nd starts in the early afternoon. Amtrak just isn't practical due to their odd scheduling, unfortunately.

As to Greyhound, I'm just not too keen on bus travel.

But I definitely appreciate the suggestions! :)