Pre-COVID, I had 3 international trade shows that I did every year, come Hell or high water, and which always took place in the same cities and venues. I would always know the dates of these shows a year in advance and, because of this, I would always start looking for PZ (R previously) space at the 330 day window. I never once failed to find at least 2 PZ/R seats available at the window in the 30+ years that I've done the shows, maybe not through my preferred gateway (EWR) but always through one of the others in the Midwest and East (i.e. IAH/IAD/ORD/DEN). I've been looking since JAN for PZ for 2 international shows, that just re-started due to COVID and are scheduled for NOV and DEC, and have found only 1 PZ seat available, even though I've expanded my search criteria to include the West Coast gateways (LAX/SFO). To add insult to injury, for these trade shows, I have plus/minus 3 day windows that I can work with, and can fly on TUE/WED/THU, and still can't find anything.

The upshot of this is, with certainly, UA has decreased availability of UG space significantly. If you've got a month-long search window, OK, I get that you can find something, but predictability, which is important for business travelers, especially GSs that spend way more than me, has gone out the window. If you're a GS and spending 60K+ on UA every year, but can't reliably count on UG space to use your PPs, then what is the benefit of your status? Boarding first, riding in a limo every now and then, better IRROPS handling, etc.-are those perks worth your loyalty absent the ability to use your PPs?

My new axiom is, "Paid J/F on UA as an elite equals paid J/F on any carrier as a nobody."

Wasn’t Skip Waitlist supposed to solve at least some of these “no PZ available on any date” gripes? I’m sitting on 580 PP’s that I cannot use. (Well, 40 cleared out of a total of 220 applied.) I’d happily throw most of them at a Skip Waitlist option for LAX-JNB at the end of August/September to avoid having to pay $10K+ or sweat it out. Skip Waitlist turned out to be a promise unfulfilled for anybody not traveling to S. America. Upgrades don’t have to go the way of the dodo bird if UA would make good on this promise—especially this year when some of us have 2 or 3 years’ worth of un-redeemable PP’s.

I think Skip The Waitlist was created to solve UA's problem of having too many PPs around and upset 1Ks seeing them all expire - after all, what's the point of 1K without PPs?

Personally, I've used 860 PP for my 2022 flights: 16 Polaris flights confirmed and 2 waitlisted. Happy with the result but afraid the good times are gone (these were booked mostly on Q4 2021, when it was easier to find upgrade space).
It's been hard to find PZ space in advance lately, even being extremely flexible with travel dates.

The thread title doesn’t mention price.

No argument it’s tough to clear UGs on several routes

UA won again. I paid to move up to a Z fare. I'm not going to start the week in coach. Scott Kirby is now laughing at suckers like me.

I doubt he's "laughing at suckers", but I'm sure he's happy to see monetization efforts work - I don't think it's personal. He's also pretty happy to see F filling with more paid customers even as cheapskate F catering plumbs the depths of "acceptable". Not much incentive for him to spend more on catering too quickly...polls are cheap though. Doesn't cost much to poll customers and ask what they want to see in terms of catering and makes some think UA cares.

Kirby sees the seat as the prime motive for people right now. Maybe the easier upgrades in the past hooked us to want the seat and the seats are the heroin we need now. Looks like you got your fix lined up.... :)

Step 1: condition people to abandon upgrades in favor of $
Step 2: raise front cabin prices to $$$

It’s not a bad plan really.

AA does not do the TOD nonsense and actually still values loyalty. My signature demonstrates my current upgrade clearance rate as an Executive Platinum (1K equivalent). Is AA perfect? Nope, but I sit up front far more as an Executive Platinum than I did as a 1K. People need to vote with their wallet. Only then will UA get the hint.

Gee whiz. Walter Cronkite just said: we need to bomb Hanoi and send over more American troops. Kirby, er I mean LBJ, is celebrating.

Neither does UA. Where are you seeing literal TODs on routes where upgrades are meaningful (ie maybe more than 90 minutes?

AA 4/1 $161 buy up offered on app JFK-MIA on 777 Flagship. But I guess that wasn't real since AA doesn't do that :) Someone was sitting in back because of $161.

AA only offers the buy-ups when the amount of people on the upgrade list is less than the available F seats for sale. Otherwise the buy-up is simply the difference between the Y-fare paid and the current F-fare of sale.

As far as TOD currently offered...I couldn't say... as I've flown AA exclusively this year after sitting in the back far too often on UA. ;)

As always on FT, YMMV.

DL, UA, and AA are virtually indistinguishable. Read the AA forum and you'll find people pining for UA or DL.

TODs are a convenient scapegoat but their impact is wildly overstated. Cabins are filling up with paying F passengers weeks before any last-minute TOD would take effect. The moment somebody figured out how to use secondary fare bucket availability to allow discount F to be marketed only when discount Y is available was the day complimentary upgrade programs died -- it's just been a slow death.

I'm flying AA later this month, in F, as a non-status passenger; I happen to need a bag on this trip, and I would have paid for exit row seats anyway, so F was less than $100 in marginal cost. The airlines are learning how to price F in a way that people will be willing to pay, so they no longer have the excess capacity they once did. End of story.

TODs are only at T-24 if they happen correct?

I see full or near full F cabins 72+ out typically

I don't take it personally. Thankfully, I *finally* got a CPU on a flight later in the week with lie-flat beds!

Usage of the phrase varies widely, but I think the most common these days is to refer to any kind of "sticker-type" upgrade that is not an up-fare or change, and therefore has a different price than the actual premium fare.

I agree with jsloan that simple revenue F is the main culprit. The most interesting thing with 2Q22 so far is that almost every route I'm flying looks like Hawaii now: getting to 60 or 70% load 28 days out (including premium) but completely lacking the huge surge of bookings within 10 days. Clear that there is a huge surge in leisure demand with deep pockets, and this matches what the earnings calls are saying.