Yes, but thankfully for me the NZ auction allocation occurs after all upgrades have been processed.

A lot of people have brought up the issue of a recession. I think the issue is that recessions are short and expansions are long. United should plan to maximize profits when times are good. Recessions should be weathered and not embedded in strategic planning.

Well, it's clear United doesn't value most of its frequent flyers. That's their choice. I'm pretty surprised they took it this far (but not shocked by anything they do nowadays). And I realize they don't care, but I know a lot of people who fly mostly internationally who currently only choose United most of the time because the high level status they earn and its benefits. Pretty much all of them prefer to fly their home country airlines if the benefits are similar. It's a slam dunk certainty that nearly all of them are going to fly United a lot less after 2020. But it's clear that United must have decided they don't want these customers because these changes are designed to disincentivize them to fly on United the most.

Personally, even though I stopped chasing status a couple of years ago, these changes definitely seal the deal. My business trips are at low negotiated fares often cheaper than I can get on personal trips. And they are all in economy, by employer mandate. So it would be absurd for me to artificially spend much more than I need to and fly extra segments unnecessarily to maintain premier status going forward. My only regret is that I chose United miles to convert my boatload of Marriott points a year or two ago. I should have known better. It's unlikely now that I am going to find a very good use for them.

Before bolting for Delta, I last made 1K in 2017 with 12,840 PQP ($14,798 gross) and 30 PQF (123,120 PQM). I've been contemplating a return to United, but this wouldn't even qualify me for Platinum. And I already have Gold for life, so why be loyal?

That’s a change that I could see happening. I don’t for a moment agree with those that believe that there will be any major change in the MM program. The entry requirements could change in the future, but not the program itself. What I could see happening is what you suggest, prioritization of upgrades, most likely within elite levels, of PQPs or just spending. That’s a change that would impact everyone.

I don’t recall any major rollbacks, but, as you said, they could temporarily tweak things: add a multiplier to segments or spend something like that. I don’t see a wholesale reversal on the cards.

I'm actually surprised that they are making it this blatantly obvious what they want. If they had gotten rid of PQD but reduced earnings on S and lower fares to 10-30%, H fares to 50%, etc., and made buy-ups earn some bonus amount of PQM, increased PQM earnings for paid F and J to be some multiple of fare class, and made partner PQM earned depend on whether they were a "preferred" partner or not if not flying on a 016 ticket, they probably could have accomplished the same thing but we wouldn't be talking about it the same way. It probably would have taken FT collectively about a week to process the new changes and even then, it's not as obvious because you don't know how many cpm you're paying for a G fare, etc.

Didn't Marriott devalue their points big time not too long ago? The only way to not "lose" the points game is to not keep large amounts of points in your account in the first place. Points are a currency and a single company has the power to unilaterally devalue them, and often, these companies do.

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I think UA knows what will happen. They have all the booking and money data of current frequent flyers in front of them. I think some 1Ks will go down due to $ or flights, but they'll be replaced by some $-only qualifiers who are currently Plat. I think they have an error bar in their predictions at each level that narrows from Silver to 1K - and error at the lowest level is less important.

I think it's clear that United doesn't value those who fly long distances; they value those who spend a lot of money. Those are two different groups with a Venn overlap in the middle. I have traditionally flown long international flights a couple of times a year in paid, low-fare business, and maintained my status as Platinum or 1K. Not surprisingly they don't want to continue to reward me for that; they want to reward the road warrior who gets on their airplanes every week and spends a lot more cumulatively than I ever have.

People are still stuck on the concept of "miles" counting for anything - they don't any more. Nada. Zilch. Money counts, and number of flights can also help if you're spending a lot already.

Will BE TATL Flights accrue for MM Status
 

I recently took a flight to BCN and while I only received 50% Flight mileage accrual I did receive 100% towards MM accrual ( I m working on 2MM)

With that said I believe dollars will no longer be accrued on BE TATL fares but I’m unsure about MM status. I’ve been reading most of this thread but I just can’t recall seeing this addressed.

No change in miles towards lifetime miles. 100% for BE.

Good Advice! Spending them as soon as it's feasible is a wise plan of action

What's interesting is that Hilton keeps devaluing their points but then, in mitigation, adds promos and milestone bonuses that allow people such as myself, who spend a ton of nights in hotels every year (I'm currently around 200), to earn enough extra points to offset most of the devaluation. UA has made earning RDM harder and is going to cut their value massively in November in a knock-on devaluation.

I agree, they should be able to handle with targeted bonuses to get the result they want. A few years back, after they'd switched the PS service from JFK to EWR they were apparently having difficulty selling those tickets. So they sent out a targeted bonus of 5,000 PQM for flying PS roundtrip to EWR. I hopped on it by moving around some of my travel and I"m sure so did many others. They could do something similar to help boost up 1K and Platinum ranks and get their loads back up if they sag.

HKG is great. When I’m determining the cpm, I include the hotel and MTA to/from the airport. The overall cost is still excellent.

SNA is a good place to be. In June, using ITA matrix, I found UA flights LAX/MEL for $600. If I left from ONT or SNA (I forget which, I think ONT) the fare jumped up by $30/$40, but added 2,000 miles: ONT/SFO/LAX/MEL/LAX/SFO/ONT.

The problem with that approach is it still ties earnings to fare class. As we all know it's possible to get dirt cheap J fares from time to time on UA and others. The challenge for UA was how do they insist on an all PQD approach when their partners (and themselves) won't share PQD data with them. The last thing UA wanted to do was penalize the international traveller who resides outside the US from choosing LH over say UA. However, ironically this is precisely what the system is doing. You can get far more PQP on an AC PY fare than a comparable PP fare.

At the end of the day UA needs to go back to the drawing board and ask them who does this status attract? It's clearly not those flying in Premium cabins since they get the benefits already and all the airlines are fighting tooth and nail for that profitable segment of the market. If I'm spending $3K-$4K flying SFO > HKG in J, do you honestly think for one moment that I'd want to fly UA when there are several other airlines offering superior service (i.e. CX and SQ to name but a few). Instead, it is people like me who have limited discretionary spend on travel, who is willing to stick with one airline if they know their K fare nabs them some of the bennies found in Premium Cabin (i.e. extra baggage allowance and lounge access).

If I was them, I would've kept the program as is, but changed the PQM accruals across partners and UA so that UA always had the most preferable earnings. Loyal customers like me have no qualms flying through the US and dealing with the hassles it entails (i.e. learning immigration and customs, re-checking bags) if we're earning significantly towards a program that values us.



They did, although some people won in that transaction (i.e. holders of SPG points) whilst others clearly lost (i.e. loyal Marriott members). Your analysis here is spot on, the only people winning in the points game are those who spend those points on premium awards and blog about it on their Instagram profile or website such as One Referral at a Time (ORAAT). The fact that these influencers are soaking in all the bennies whilst I am sitting in cattle class is one of the reasons why I resolved to burn through most of my points in 2020. However, I won't even call the points a currency since aside from a couple of notable currencies (i.e. Reichsmarks and Zimbabwean Dollar) they tend to be relatively stable over time.

Safe Travels,

James