PN vs PZ -- Why such a difference?
Jul 3, 2019, 4:11 pm
#61
Join Date: Aug 2001
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These threads are always fascinating. The basic premise for most of us, myself included, is that "UA should set up their systems so as to maximize my ability to fly up front for as little cost as possible." We all comment on threads, whether it's fares, upgrades, cabin layouts, or anything else, with that filter switched on. And on occasion, we'll grudgingly concede that maybe UA is actually a business that needs to function, or that perhaps we are not actually the ideal UA customer that we believe ourselves to be. And then a few weeks later, another such thread emerges and we start again.
Now if only I could find a way to use my 6 remaining 2019 GPU's....
Now if only I could find a way to use my 6 remaining 2019 GPU's....
Jul 3, 2019, 4:43 pm
#62
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But they are 100x better than AA and DL is not much of an option living in SF.
Jul 3, 2019, 5:10 pm
#63
Join Date: Sep 2006
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It may have worked in some short term sense, but the more likely result is that a bunch of non-GS elites say upgrade certificates are worthless these days.
United wants to sell the premium cabin seats. Sometimes they can't. Since this resource "spoils" as soon as the plane takes off, United has decided that it is better to give it away to their best customers (first GS, then 1K, the Plats, down the line) than letting it spoil. But don't ever think they are doing this "to be nice to our best customers" - they are salvaging what is, to their mind, a bad situation.
If UA had its way, they would sell every single premium cabin seat and upgrade zero elites.
Jul 3, 2019, 5:17 pm
#64
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Enough negativity. Let's think happy thoughts. Tell me if this analysis is directionally correct?
In 2019, there are roughly 1,060,000 RPUs in circulation. In 2020 that number will decrease to roughly 368,000. That's a massive reduction in demand.
What's even more interesting is GS will lose roughly 87% of their RPUs in 2020 vs 2019. That's huge. Today, if there's a GS on your flight, they're guaranteed to have an RPU. Next year, there will be lots of GS on flights, who simply don't have any RPUs left. All else being equal, RPUs should become much easier for 1Ks in 2020!
The assumptions I used are:
1K members - 100K in '19, 90K in '20
GS members - 3K in '19, 3K in '20
1K RPUs - 10 in '19, 4 in '20
GS RPUs - 30 in' 19, 4 in '20
In 2019, there are roughly 1,060,000 RPUs in circulation. In 2020 that number will decrease to roughly 368,000. That's a massive reduction in demand.
What's even more interesting is GS will lose roughly 87% of their RPUs in 2020 vs 2019. That's huge. Today, if there's a GS on your flight, they're guaranteed to have an RPU. Next year, there will be lots of GS on flights, who simply don't have any RPUs left. All else being equal, RPUs should become much easier for 1Ks in 2020!
The assumptions I used are:
1K members - 100K in '19, 90K in '20
GS members - 3K in '19, 3K in '20
1K RPUs - 10 in '19, 4 in '20
GS RPUs - 30 in' 19, 4 in '20
Jul 3, 2019, 5:37 pm
#66
Join Date: Jul 2016
Programs: UA1K | *A Gold
Posts: 767
...
In 2019, there are roughly 1,060,000 RPUs in circulation. In 2020 that number will decrease to roughly 368,000. That's a massive reduction in demand.
What's even more interesting is GS will lose roughly 87% of their RPUs in 2020 vs 2019. That's huge. Today, if there's a GS on your flight, they're guaranteed to have an RPU. Next year, there will be lots of GS on flights, who simply don't have any RPUs left. All else being equal, RPUs should become much easier for 1Ks in 2020!
...
In 2019, there are roughly 1,060,000 RPUs in circulation. In 2020 that number will decrease to roughly 368,000. That's a massive reduction in demand.
What's even more interesting is GS will lose roughly 87% of their RPUs in 2020 vs 2019. That's huge. Today, if there's a GS on your flight, they're guaranteed to have an RPU. Next year, there will be lots of GS on flights, who simply don't have any RPUs left. All else being equal, RPUs should become much easier for 1Ks in 2020!
...
The decrease of the number of RPUs in circulation will only mean that more F seats will be available for sale longer until the CPU clock kicks in. Besides, most RPU flights are also CPU, so the GS's will still outrank 1Ks for the CPU...?
Jul 3, 2019, 5:44 pm
#67
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Even ignoring that, your analysis is wildly optimistic, because you’re assuming that all of those RPUs are actually getting used. Read the threads about how few of them clear. The reason isn’t that somebody else gobbled up the RPU space. The reason, in most cases, is that they’re able to sell those seats. On popular flights, like the p.s. flights, they’re often selling every single business class seat.
Sure, you might be able to upgrade the occasional BOI-LAX flight on an E175 — a flight that you might have cleared with a CPU anyway. But, overall, the premise is just flawed.
Jul 3, 2019, 7:56 pm
#68
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Wow. I didn’t know that. That’s a gut punch
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jul 3, 2019 at 9:41 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
Jul 4, 2019, 8:20 am
#69
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It is a fairly effective indication of how UA ranks its customers. But, yes, it’s yet another reason that a flight like IAD-SFO is impossible for a 1K to clear even with an instrument.
On the flights that people want to use them on? (e.g., non-CPU-eligible flights like LAX-EWR and IAH-HNL?) Absolutely not. There might not be ten.
Across the entire ecosystem? Yes; it’s easy to find PZ space if you know where to look. The Caribbean (especially during off season), mid-continent short-hauls, and E175 flights, for example.
I’ve had some success with RPUs clearing at booking, on flights like PAE-SFO, AUS-IAH, AUS-ORD, SEA-IAH on a red-eye, and a couple others. In nearly every case, I would have gotten a CPU easily if I had been willing to wait and take my chances.
Limiting the number of RPUs just means I’ll get CPUs instead.
The only real value of an RPU is finding the unicorn — for example, I was able to find PZ on a Saturday mid-morning SFO-EWR flight once — or in giving them to friends and family who don’t have status.
Across the entire ecosystem? Yes; it’s easy to find PZ space if you know where to look. The Caribbean (especially during off season), mid-continent short-hauls, and E175 flights, for example.
I’ve had some success with RPUs clearing at booking, on flights like PAE-SFO, AUS-IAH, AUS-ORD, SEA-IAH on a red-eye, and a couple others. In nearly every case, I would have gotten a CPU easily if I had been willing to wait and take my chances.
Limiting the number of RPUs just means I’ll get CPUs instead.
The only real value of an RPU is finding the unicorn — for example, I was able to find PZ on a Saturday mid-morning SFO-EWR flight once — or in giving them to friends and family who don’t have status.
Jul 4, 2019, 9:19 am
#70
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Jul 4, 2019, 11:29 am
#72
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Before the merger, I would guess the lowest F cabin fare on this route was 2-3x higher than it is today, even without the one-way hidden city options that a growing number of savvy customers are using, and now we have a combination of cheap F fares with the rest of the F seats getting bought up by Kettles for pennies on the dollar at check-in.
At least Larry K at Continental communicated a goal that each elite tier should expect to be upgraded a minimum of "x%" of the time (I forget the actual targets from back then) even with better fares and buy-ups, but at United, Kirby is perfectly happy with everyone from GS to Silver never getting a free upgrade provided that F seat is sold for any amount of money from $10 on up.
At least Larry K at Continental communicated a goal that each elite tier should expect to be upgraded a minimum of "x%" of the time (I forget the actual targets from back then) even with better fares and buy-ups, but at United, Kirby is perfectly happy with everyone from GS to Silver never getting a free upgrade provided that F seat is sold for any amount of money from $10 on up.
Jul 4, 2019, 11:29 am
#73
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Am I the only one here that recognizes UA is a business? I dont know many businesses that make money by creating a better product and constantly giving it away. The PN7 PZ0 makes a ton of sense. Most GS members are PAYING for F anyway (Im in paid F at least 75% of the time). GS members give 4-40x the revenue of 1k and are FAR more profitable. on a $ comparison - my $15k in flights to a 1k's $15k in flights (to compare equally) are probably worth 2x or more because mine are high value lower costs to UA. They WANT people with those flying patterns to be very happy. Last year I flew 88k actual BIS miles on around $50k in spend. That is far more valuable to them than the 1k flying 100k BIS for $15k. They WANT me to get an upgrade the few times I am stuck in coach then they want you to get it. I am not trying to be "Im better than you" here, but its a great business decision to keeping their money. Most 1k fliers are not necessary loyal, but are more likely hub-stuck to UA. Sure, an ORD person can go to AA, but there really isnt that big of a differentiation at this point to bother changing since you already spent the time building to 1k, have a bunch of banked miles, branded CCs, etc. You ARENT leaving unless your company makes you leave OR the competitors offer something awesome (which, they arent). I, on the other hand, could leave. I am buying international business class tickets. I could have bought my ticket on singapore airlines in their superior product, but I chose to consolidate with UA because I also fly to the EU (where I could fly LH F). They KNOW I would leave them because the GS benefits are not that much more above what I could get paying for F/C with top tier international fliers. This is the reality of the world. 1K and below are not getting something for free unless UA is 100% sure they wont sell it.
<NOTE: This post was not meant to piss anyone off but rather be a frank assessment of how I believe UA is looking at the difference between a GS and a 1K.>
<NOTE: This post was not meant to piss anyone off but rather be a frank assessment of how I believe UA is looking at the difference between a GS and a 1K.>
Last edited by ekwang; Jul 4, 2019 at 11:30 am Reason: Grammar
Jul 4, 2019, 12:21 pm
#74
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Jul 4, 2019, 12:32 pm
#75
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There are an ample number of cheap Kettle upgrade examples in the TOD thread going back many years, including specific examples of an Elite member being offered an upgrade at a cost significantly higher than a non-elite travel companion, and that's not including the sub-$100 upgrade offers hawked at the DEN gates.