How to Increase Cleared GPU Probability?
 

What can be done to increase the chances of a GPU clearing when waitlisting is the only way? I am hoping to clear a GPU for the notoriously hard to clear SFO-SIN route.

Is there any way I can increase my odds if I am flexible with scheduling? Like flying off on a Tuesday? Or selecting flights that have more unassigned business class seats available? Choosing a day where more discount business class seats are available in fares D or Z etc? Any anecdotal experience or evidence would be greatly appreciated.

I know I could try flying through ORD-HKG-SIN and have a much higher chance of clearing a GPU. Would be a great chance to try the new Polaris Lounge as well. But I would rather avoid having to sit in the pmUA 2-4-2 configuration.

Thanks in advance for any input!

To increase your chances, don't just buy a W fare, buy a Y,B,M, etc. As high as your company will allow, it's still an 'economy' ticket.

If you have to buy the cheapest economy ticket and you're doing the upfare to W yourself, and have flexibility, then try and secure R space at the time of booking.

Other than that, this thread might be one to assist you with anecdotal experience/evidence.
http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...ne-2016-a.html

I'd second this. My anecdotal experience is W stands for worthless (but expensive). This might have been due to United's f'up, who knows, but:

Last year I booked 2 W tickets (myself and my partner) ORD-AMS. I used 2 GPU's. Bought the tickets 6 months prior to departure. I'm 1k, partner is MP member only. At the gate, my partner is #1 spot (United can't tell me why other than, whoops) and I'm #2. I checked with the GA 1 minute before boarding and was told that someone just bought full fare business in the last open seat.

On return flight, united had previously split our tickets without me knowing. Now my partner is 500 down the list on return flight, and I'm #1. Had the ticket not been split, he would have been #2, but I digress.

Anyway, I rarely clear GPU's flying domestically, never worth betting an upgrade on an international. I've written them off as worthless. If I want business I'll buy it or use miles.

I wouldn't go higher than a V or a Q for that purpose. Odds are you're just throwing even more money away if you go higher.

Going one fare class above a W definitely gives you a potential advantage on a flight that's heavily waitlisted with 1Ks though.

Y,B,M and you might was well buy Premium Economy and any of the other airlines. LH works to help keep status- but if GPUs aren't going to clear anymore, why am I even a 1K?

True. I just brought up the higher fare because the OP asked about increasing chances and if the OP isn't paying for his/her ticket, then it would def increase your chances.

Whether it's 'worth' it is another discussion.

Similar comment on the wiki about why GPU/RPU's are worthless. Sadly similar experience as yours last year going SFO-FRA and SFO-MUN. Booked months in advance, used GPU's for myself and partner (and on returns). Never got taken. Long TATL flights in UA E+ both ways and both trips, not pretty. Will NEVER buy up and play that game again. I like your W stands for worthless line, very appropriate.

Which is the exact reason I stopped flying UA. I made my 1 million and then flew on whoever was the cheapest.
Example UA Economy to Atlanta $800.
AA 1st class to Atlanta $450

All those upsells to 1st and boom there goes seats that used to be earmarked for upgrades.

The best part :rolleyes: is they just don't care about loyalty.

Holding out for an upgrade these days is not a winning proposition. The seat will be offered for an upgrade $ale to other passengers as they check in for the flight even if they have no status.

My inability to use GPUs out of SFO to Europe was the main reason I left, even after 2.7 MM. I'm one of those people who can't really afford $4500+ for RT business to Europe, so full boat is not an option.

Now, for the price of a UA Q fare for example, I can usually buy an actual premium economy seat on a European airline, which is wider and has more legroom. Often I can upgrade for money or miles to business, as neither of my current airlines (BA and VS) wait-lists for upgrades, and by keeping a sharp eye I can grab one if they appear.

But, in any case, I hope to never again fly in an economy seat for 10 hours! It's worth the extra money.

Wow, that is a sad indictment on customer loyalty. You obviously are a frequent traveler. I understand airlines need to make money but since you are able to travel on other airlines for lower prices and they continue to operate UA has lost your revenue.

I do wonder why UA does not make a better E+ hard product for TATL and TPAC flights. Other airlines like TK and SQ do this well and appear to make money from them as people are willing to pay for the privilege.

I too am struggling to find available R inventory for flights and looking at *A alternatives as I have met my minimum 4 flights for the year. I do like 1K for IRROPS but the GPUs are the real incentive for me to strive for 1K. I already have *G through my 1MM. I do a mixture of paid J flights and E (hoping for upgrades) both TATL and TPAC. I am starting the switch to *A for these flights.

Personally I wouldn't go higher than the bare minimum at all, unless you really hate your employer. In which case perhaps looking for a new job should be the top priority.

Whilst GPUs are far less certain now that they were a few years ago (and let's not forget that the economy is in far better shape which has quite a lot to do with it), I think some people here are being over-dramatic. None of last year's will have expired worthless and I'm reasonably confident I will be able to say the same this year. So far, through the end of March which is how far I am booked, I'm three out of three, two of which had R on booking and one didn't.

The problem I have is that my travel is mainly domestic, and the few international personal trips I take a year, I'm not willing to gamble with a GPU.

I'm not complaining that I clear my GPUs, I'm complaining that I've never cleared a GPU on a "global" flight, and I "waste" them all on domestic work trips.

edit: I also just love getting worked up on here :)

+1

It's unfortunate that OP has asked a legitimate question, only to have the thread hijacked by the same complaints that are already being aired in multiple other threads.

Can we just say, "yes, TATL GPUs can be difficult to clear, particularly ex-SFO," and move on with the question that OP asked?

I'd point out that OP's question was answered in the first reply:

OP also asked for anecdotal experiences:

So, what are you on about?

Getting back on track, OP asked if he/she could book other times to increase chances.

edit:
Kacee pointed out that my anecdotal experience is wrong and provided this useful tip:
end edit

I'd anecdotally, from personal experience, say that this doesn't increase odds and it would probably be very difficult to get any sort of stat on this outside of tapping in to United's stats directly. I think when you're traveling to a vacation destination, non-business related type destination, odds of upgrade increase quite a bit but OP is asking about SIN so I'd say that's out the window.

You're wrong.

If you have flexibility in your schedule and are willing to put in the effort to find the right flights,* GPU upgrades can absolutely be confirmed. That's my experience and that of many others in this forum. There's an entire thread on that point. GPU Upgrade Success 2017.

I feel for the business travelers who have to fly specific flights on specific days, because that's where GPU become a low odds proposition.

This "GPUs are worthless" debate has been done to death and it's just really old hearing the same old complaints over and over.

*And so to further answer OP's question, you need to spend time searching, check the loads on specific flights (United Flight Status Tool), identify your candidates, watch them and see how the loads change, try to book into open R, but go ahead and waitlist if the inventory movement suggests R is going to open.

That's great information, thanks! I'll update my previous post with this - Not sure why you didn't reply with this in the first place? (also being pedantic but, my anecdote is not wrong).

OP Asked specifically for anecdotal experiences. To me that reads: "Story Time!". Possibly, OP didn't want to read through hundreds of pages of posts that might also tangentially wander to gather his information.

In the end, I'm just not sure I understand your complaint on this thread. This is a forum where discussions occur, not a static users manual, you can read United's pages for that information. Airline rules, regs, successes, failures, they're a living thing. Their policies change regularly (and by agent and airport and hundreds of other factors) and an experience from 6 months ago might not even be relevant today. The number of times I search for FT threads on a topic and end up with hundreds of pages from years ago frequent. It can be hard to know if that information is still relevant or worth even wading through. I'd hate continually discouraging people from asking questions just because something similar has been discussed somewhere else.

Now that this is sufficiently off topic, I'll refrain from further commentary.

The first reply mentions buying a higher fare. I would focus #1 on just finding R availability. If R is available, there is no need to go above W. This means considering different routing and times.

If you are forced to waitlist, ofcourse you can buy the highest fare you can but that isnt always an option. If you are close in, its worth checking the inventory (or even seat maps). If the C looks empty, you should have a better chance than if its completely full.

If you aren't flexible at all, then there is nothing you can do to increase your chances. The only think you can do is monitor R like a hawk and call in if it opens up.

As far as buying a higher fare, I think one step above minimum (usually V over W) is all that has a value proposition. The 98% of 1Ks who don't read FT are not going to be buying V fares just to bump their GPU chances.

Thank everyone for posting their tips or anecdotal evidence. I understand there must be a lot of people who are frustrated with their experiences of not getting their GPU's cleared. It's a system that isn't very transparent and involves putting in more money and sometimes not getting anything in return. So the complaints are warranted.

In the meantime, I have gone with the confirmed ORD-SIN flight upgrade on the pmUA 777 2-4-2. But will gamble with my chances from SIN-SFO. And taking the tips of looking for open R space periodically, looking at flight load changes for similar departure days, and praying to the GPU gods but keeping expectations low. And maybe in the future buy up to a higher fare than W like V or Q.

Currently the return flight has many unassigned businessfirst seats, more than half empty. But expect them to fill up as the date gets closer.

Any more anecdotal evidence, tips, or strategies would be appreciated and helpful for future GPU waitlist gamblers.

Fly LH.
Pray.
UA keyboards don't contain the letter 'R'.

P fare class
 

OK, I've tried to search this but came up with nothing. What exactly is a P class fare? Is it a new fare class below Z? Supposedly the lowest fare type for Biz. I'm asking cos I don't recall seeing it before.

Not new. P is the lowest discount, non-refundable Business fare (if available).

So "pray" becomes "pay"?

Well played.

Badum tss...

David

THIS. For our private trips, we try to look for days/routes where confirmed GPUs are available. If they aren't, then we use miles to just "buy" a business class ticket on the long international flights.

There are a lot of times that I would be tempted to 'buy' and upgrade with miles for the delta in miles between economy and business- especially when there is biz saver or even standard offers. Just to not have to do the W Hail Mary and waitlist. If they are willing to exchange a biz seat for all the miles, why not offer this? You can upgrade for cash+miles, for a much lower mile total, but that is just like a GPU, correct?

This is one of the primary reasons I abandoned my former annual quest for 1K. GPUs are becoming increasingly worthless.

Can you elaborate slightly on what you watch for in the inventory movement that would suggest R is going to open or for that matter would suggest that R is unlikely to open. Thanks in advance.

If P=9 and PN=9, then that would be a strong indication that R is going to open.

If P=9 and PN=0, I would think twice about waitlisting as a 1K as this could be an indicator that GS are waitlisted for upgrades and not receiving them (GS clear into the PN bucket).

If I read it (fare chart) correctly then GS and ONLY GS clear into the PN bucket. Elites track into the P bucket but only after GS's have cleared, right?

There is a few exceptions, but that is mainly true.

R (not P -- which is a paid discount business/domestic first fare class) is for non-GS elites.

Better explanation in wiki of http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unite...uckets-ua.html

You're correct. Only GS clear into the PN bucket.
You're incorrect with your next statement. Elites track into the R bucket. Ideally, yes it would be after GS have cleared (since an R bucket being open should mean that the PN bucket should be open) but I don't run United's IT so I can't say for 100%

There is also a sense of momentum to it. If the flight has gone from P9 PN0 to P9 PN9, the chances of R opening soon go up for each subsequent day in which no seats are sold.