Interesting website
 

www.amigoingdown.com

Interesting website that calculates the chance of your plane going down after you input airline, plane and route. Don't enter your name and email on the first page so they won't be sending you junk mail.

Hmmm wonder what their risk criteria is . . . My flight in Mexica for the "MHD" is 1 in 1,000,000 of going down, but my flight from YYZ - YWG in January is 1 in 4,000,000.

Now this machine says that my chances of dying on an Air Afrique aircraft between HKG and SFO in the month of February were about 1 in 3-million or so.

Now I would have figured it would be 0--but hey, who am I to argue with the computer.

I have a 1 in 185million+ chance on my next flight (YVR-HNL on a QF 763 but it didn;t vary for a CP 763).

I see the A-330 isn't available as a choice.

Playing around with it, it would seem that it has multipliers for origin and destination airports, month of year, airline and aircraft type. As AC*SE points out, it doesn't matter if the airline doesn't operate on that route or the particular aircraft model doesn't operate on the route.

The airline risk depends on whether the airline has has a fatal crash under its current incarnation. For my example above (keeping everything except airline constant), CP, QF, WN and BR were the safest at 1 in 185.3 m (all identical) with CI in the rear guard (1 in 2.3 m). Others I looked at were AC (36.2), CX (15.7), US (40.7), AA (43.0), SQ (22.8), BA (71.2), CA (6.2) and UA (45.6).

I changed the a/c type to a 737-300/400/500 and used SQ and CP (28.3 & 230.3 respectively). The ratio remained static at 8.12 so I would assume an airline and an aircraft type multiplier are being used.

[This message has been edited by terenz (edited 11-23-2000).]

[This message has been edited by terenz (edited 11-23-2000).]

On my most frequented route.. ZRH-YYZ my chances were:

1 in 47 million on AC
1 in 23 million on Swissair

Dorian

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Dorian's Star Alliance RTW Price Chart: http://www.informationlab.com/rtw.htm
Blondebomber's Star Alliance Comparison Chart: http://members.home.net/deercroft/starall00.html

Man do they have it wrong.

The odds are 50 / 50.

How do I figure?

The plane either goes down or it doesn't.

Dan

After you have caught a flight that went down, you won't care about the 45+ million good ones.

Now lets see them factor in the chances of dying in a car crash on the way to the airport!

Yes, there are two possible outcomes (crash or not crash), but that doesn't make the probability of an airplane crash 50%. It's obviously far less than that.