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-   -   The (Bleak?) Future of Miles and Points (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/travelbuzz/1901882-bleak-future-miles-points.html)

Super Mario Apr 25, 2018 9:48 pm


Originally Posted by BearX220 (Post 29618108)
The programs didn't dry up because of gamers, churners, mileage runners, etc.; there were never enough of them to matter. They turned to dust because there are only three network carriers left in the US, so less competition, fewer options, less of a role for loyalty. When AA invented the modern FF program in the early '80s it was competing against PA, TW, BN, WA, US, CO, UA, DL, EA, PE, and I don't know who else -- all robust network carriers. Today AA competes with UA, DL, and Southwest. There's no need to reward customers for their business when they have no choice but to keep giving it to you.

I strongly strongly disagree that there were ever enough gamers to matter. How many companies out there give away $500-$1500 to customers who have no interest in doing business with them, and it's no big deal? It's also not accurate that this activity is somehow affiliated with FT. Anywhere you see credit card discussion online, it's being discussed. If it wasn't a big deal, why would Chase institute rules such as 5/24, one Sapphire card, etc? American Express gives one bonus per lifetime. To name a few. If I was a betting man, I'd wager we have only scraped the surface on restrictions credit card companies will place to prevent gaming the system.

As far as your other statement, I definitely agree. Too many people feel entitled to loyalty perks. No business is required to give anything away. They do it for marketing. Period. What happens when the business evolves? When your competition stops doing it? When you no longer have competition? When demand is already high? As a smart business owner, you have to look at all of your investments (just like customers taking $1000 sign up bonuses and leaving). Money isn't well-spent just because "that's the way it always was." If an investment isn't giving a return, you start to invest in other areas that will get you a better return, or you bank the money. You wouldn't give away free dessert at your restaurant if you were packed every night.

There is a clear difference between hotel and airline loyalty programs too. I believe the airline business is feeling the hurt around the margin compression way more. The low-cost carriers hurt the business of the big guys more than a new cheap hotel/motel chain would hurt Mariott, Hilton, or IHG. You can say what you want about your favorite airline, but to the average person, there is a far smaller importance in airline choice vs hotel/resort choice.

BearX220 Apr 26, 2018 6:21 am


Originally Posted by pinniped (Post 29652538)
I have abandoned all airline credit cards.

The only airline CC I still keep is Southwest / Chase. Rapid Rewards is of limited utility but operates transparently. I maintain a modest stash of RR points to send my wife off to see her mom a few times per year. That card / program defends its value. I've given up on the others.


Originally Posted by Amelorn (Post 29640320)
I recently upgraded my Hilton Amex from the silver status no-fee to the gold status $95/annum. Why turn down an upgrade + free breakfast elite status that would otherwise require 20 stays (20 Hamptons is a solid $2000-2300 minimum spend) + 10 free priority pass lounge visits per year all for $95?

The Amex / Hilton cards are a virtual disloyalty pass. They free you to stay at whatever chain you want, for reasons of economy or location, because you'll always be Gold or DIamond at Hilton. No more need to alter spending behavior to amass 20 or 30 stays -- although altering your behavior is the whole raison d'etre of loyalty programs in the first place. (I had to attend RSA -- cybersecurity conference -- in San Francisco last week. In olden days I would have sought out a Hilton property at whatever cruel cost; this year I stayed at a quaint independent property over in Berkeley, saved $1,000 to $1,500, and risked nothing, Hilton status-wise.) So I am not sure that situation will last forever.


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