The end for the 747?
 

So there are reports in the media saying the end is coming for the iconic 747.

Now for those of you who are uninterested/indifferent to planes, I guess you may find the 747 no different to any other wide body jetliner out there.

But for those who do share an interest in being a plane buff, you will know the 747 is not just any other jetliner. It was the plane responsible for creating the twin aisle era for modern jetliners. It was one of the key aircrafts that brought air travel within reach of the masses. A plane that Boeing gambled it's entire future on. Had the 747 programme failed, so would Boeing. In other words, the 747 was one reason why Boeing is so dominant in commercial aviation today.

But all that is about to end. There have been no new orders for the latest (only in production) version of the 747, the 747-8. So unless there are sufficient future orders, it is likely Boeing will shut down the production of the 747. Why the lack of orders? One reason is given below:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...-line/3179657/

Part of the problem is all those seats. A 747 can seat from 380 to 560 people, depending on how an airline sets it up. A full one is a moneymaker. But an airline that can't fill all the seats has to spread the cost of 63,000 gallons of jet fuel - roughly $200,000 - among fewer passengers.

They're also too big for most markets. There aren't enough passengers who want to fly each day between Atlanta and Paris, for example, to justify several jumbo jet flights. And business travelers want more than one flight to choose from. So airlines fly smaller planes several times a day instead.


So what do you think? Is the end of the 747 inevitable in the near future? Or not? Or it won't matter either way?

It's a 45 year old plane, no surprises.

The end for the 747?
 

A good point is that domestic airlines are competing on several available flights per day now, so fewer passengers per flights. Also, hub and spoke airlines aren't as profitable as point to point airlines, in recent years anyways. I could see the combination of this may have airlines such as southwest driving demand for much smaller planes than the 747.

The end for the 747?
 

I haven't read the article, but I thought Korean Air had recently ordered some? Cathay Pacific and Air China bought some fairly recently.

747-8, punk not dead!

My thoughts exactly. This same article was posted in another thread. Boeing is going to keep trying to milk profits from the 747 air frame until the market says no.

I hope you are right, but the last firm order from an airline was in June 2011. A more recent confirmation of an order came in Sept 2012 by Air China for 5 aircraft (but that was originally first ordered in March 2011). So there hasn't been any new orders for the 747-8I version for the last 2 years.

The freighter version (747-8F) is doing slightly better with more recent orders, so chances are the freighter version have brighter prospects than the passenger version. Unless Boeing gets some new order for the passenger version soon, it looks like the endgame for the 8I.

IIRC average service time for an airliner is 30 years. So unless something extraordinary happens Air China's 747 will be flying at 2040.

A similar scenario is playing out for the A380. No new orders in that last 12 or 18 months.

I think it is the basic economics of the new generation of twin engine long haul aircraft (A35x and B77x) that will eventually kill off both the 748 and 388.

But I have always loved the 747. It is the iconic jumbo (and will be missed when it is gone).

747 is more fuel voracious than 380. As said, is a project 45 years old. Which made the history of aviation industry. 19 LH orders, plus KE and AC for the latest 748 will make us see it alive for years to come.

So? Look at the 737.....

But the jumbo jet is not the 737, it's place in aviation history is different.

I'd turn that around and say the the 737 isn't the 747. It's place in history is different.

The engineers should continue to evolve the model to modern specifications and fuel efficiency, but I guess eventually a model change due to market differentiate.

Everything remaining the same, and 45 years later, eventually the 747 imho will become obsolete unless updated to continually meet market requirements and rigors.

these days most carriers are trying to get by with A320 and B737 family, and trying to make those long-range and cheaper to operate.

how long can EK/EY/QR keep ordering, because the # of travelers each year is not magically increasing......so many businesses now stop sending people on travel, they use the online meetings and such.

They did, it's called the 777x. :) The 747-8i was an attempt to evolve the design to modern specifications but there's only so much you can do with 4 engines. The 777x will have offer a plane that carries almost as many passengers (it has a longer wingspan and fuselage than the 747) but for significantly less fuel for seat mile.

With the commoditization of air travel in the recent past, I am not surprised. I will always remember travelling in the top deck of the 747-XXX. 30 years ago, my dad would pack all of us in the family car to make the 1000 mile trip to Florida. Today, I generally purchase $299 tickets many months in advance for my family even though the car is cheaper.
Rest in peace the big Jumbo. I would rather have more frequent non-stop flights than one big giant bus once a day. The cargo industry will keep this aircraft alive for many more decades; what with China being the world's manufacturing base.

The 747 is like the equivalent of a Ford Model T. An outstanding technological feat and breakthrough for its day.

Even the past decade the cost of fuel efficient machinery is coming down. We see this in automobile mileage efficiency. The cost is coming down for fuel efficient engines for planes, so it's just a matter of time until 747 is obsolete, as it will no longer make economic sense to purchase these gas guzzlers.

The key economic indicator for successful airlines is fuel.. as fuel is the largest cost for airline operations across the aviation industry.

I think the saddest part of the whole 747 program was the development of the 8i. Boeing went to the well once too many times and it blemishes an otherwise a remarkable aircraft from development to service for this long.

This is what I think.... ALL aircraft have a finite production lifespan which is driven by the market. An analysis and "prediction" is just that. Given unknown "Black Swan effects", no one knows for sure how the market will behave. Hell, we cannot even predict exactly what the price of crude oil will be tomorrow at 12 noon, GMT.

Face it, some aircraft have short lifespans (like the Kittyhawk and the Comet), some never reach production (like the Canadian Avro Arrow) and some have a long production life (like the C-130 and the B747).

Seeing that it is Sunday, I am content sitting with a libation, listening to Aussie streaming audio, and watching others speculate about the B747 production lifespan, and how many angels can dance on a pinhead. :p

I agree with the above post. Five to ten years from now, the market can change and the 747 or derivative, with greater capacity than a 777X can be in demand again.

Boeing did contradict themselves by saying that they also anticipate the 747-8i to remain in production. They have also contradicted themselves in 2007 by designing the 787-10 and announced that the version 10 was "beyond the design limits of the airframe" thereby not advancing the design further. Now this year, Boeing retracted what they said in 2007 by offering the 787-10, as a design again....

Are three 747-8s officially on order yet for Air Force One purposes?

No. Those guys are still playing Boeing and Airbus off of each other. While many Americans will be pissed if the latter gets the contract, I support the company that can offer us (tax payers) the best value.

This is what we hope, BUT the reality of Black Swans is what political lobbies can do.... Not always in the "best interests" of the taxpayer...

My Ph.D thesis of two decades ago showed this - AND the politicians (especially the elected ones) did not like my findings ;)

If the Cargo Industry was desperate for 747-800s they would not be going direct from Boeing Seattle to The Arizona Desert.

Its very sad heard more and more 747 retiring. Hope the demand for the 747-8 can pick up in the near future

747-8 NatGeo program (currently what I'm watching to procrastinate)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iFhBNCHCIMs

I would say that they are more the equivalent of the Ford LTD and who the heck toodles about in something that absurd now days but then I think of all the single occupants I see in Yukons and Escalades on any given freeway...

America. *facepalm*

I've got some nostalgic nerves about flying ORD-SAN or DEN-SAN in one of those monsters for sure but its' the same nod to the ridiculous i have about mom's Cadillac... WHAT WERE WE THINKING??

I believe the 748i is more fuel efficient than the 388

That's what the NatGeo video I posted a few clicks above says, that fuel$/seat is less than the A380.

I think it depends on passenger load/cargo load/distance.

Regardless, neither is as efficient as the more recent twin engine long haul aircraft (777-300ER, 787-8, 330-300). And everything currently flying will be less efficient than the next generation of twin engine long haul aircraft.

Considering that the passenger loads and range of the next generation will approach the 744, it is easy to see why the era of the four engine jet airliner as coming to an end.

The 747 is NOT absurd...

From what I heard from some LH people is that they are not very happy with the 748i. LH will fly them but will switch mainly to 777x and A350 in the future. For LH Cargo they will order the 777F instead of the 748f.

I will miss it when it's gone, mainly because it's the plane I'll always associate with my younger days when I first began flying long-haul. I'll always associate the 747 (and, to a lesser extent, the L-10-11) with an era when international air travel was still kind of special. I liked the fact that to board one, you usually walked out onto the tarmac. You'd look up at it and marvel at how enormous it was...you don't get quite the same sense of awe boarding at a modern terminal with jetbridges.

That said, I don't think it's going anywhere. It'll be flying in pretty substantial numbers into the 2020's even if nobody is buying new ones today.

Why is it a blemish, other than for Boeing's business, which presumably spent a lot on developing the variant that it won't recoup?

I thought for sure I would be flying in this one any day now. ;):D


http://www.seattlepi.com/mount-raini...ng-3720456.php

http://ww3.hdnux.com/photos/14/20/56.../3/628x471.jpg

Several years ago at LHR, I had disembarked and boarded BA 747s parked far from the T5 terminal.

Watching now...

Always liked the 747.

I don't think the 8I is a blemish as far as the passengers are concerned. Still a great plane...from our perspective, I'm sure it's the best 747 ever built. It'll have the modern interior design, etc. I don't follow the stock enough to know what investors think about it.

Did you look up at it and marvel at its awesomeness? @:-) I also wonder what it must be like to have been on that original 747 design team...if you were a 30-year-old aero engineer in the late 60's, you're 75 now. I wonder if those guys ever take a flight today, look up at the plane, and think "Yeah, we did that, and it changed the world. :cool:" I'm sure every element of the plane has been reengineered and modernized multiple times, but it's still the same platform those guys put together eons ago.

Simple answer: No. Boeing has too much invested in it to stop making the 747. Some airlines may drop them in favor of newer technology and more fuel efficient planes but they will continue to show up in use for many airlines for the foreseeable future.