The end for the 747?
 

So there are reports in the media saying the end is coming for the iconic 747.

Now for those of you who are uninterested/indifferent to planes, I guess you may find the 747 no different to any other wide body jetliner out there.

But for those who do share an interest in being a plane buff, you will know the 747 is not just any other jetliner. It was the plane responsible for creating the twin aisle era for modern jetliners. It was one of the key aircrafts that brought air travel within reach of the masses. A plane that Boeing gambled it's entire future on. Had the 747 programme failed, so would Boeing. In other words, the 747 was one reason why Boeing is so dominant in commercial aviation today.

But all that is about to end. There have been no new orders for the latest (only in production) version of the 747, the 747-8. So unless there are sufficient future orders, it is likely Boeing will shut down the production of the 747. Why the lack of orders? One reason is given below:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/todayi...-line/3179657/

Part of the problem is all those seats. A 747 can seat from 380 to 560 people, depending on how an airline sets it up. A full one is a moneymaker. But an airline that can't fill all the seats has to spread the cost of 63,000 gallons of jet fuel - roughly $200,000 - among fewer passengers.

They're also too big for most markets. There aren't enough passengers who want to fly each day between Atlanta and Paris, for example, to justify several jumbo jet flights. And business travelers want more than one flight to choose from. So airlines fly smaller planes several times a day instead.


So what do you think? Is the end of the 747 inevitable in the near future? Or not? Or it won't matter either way?

It's a 45 year old plane, no surprises.

The end for the 747?
 

A good point is that domestic airlines are competing on several available flights per day now, so fewer passengers per flights. Also, hub and spoke airlines aren't as profitable as point to point airlines, in recent years anyways. I could see the combination of this may have airlines such as southwest driving demand for much smaller planes than the 747.

The end for the 747?
 

I haven't read the article, but I thought Korean Air had recently ordered some? Cathay Pacific and Air China bought some fairly recently.

747-8, punk not dead!

My thoughts exactly. This same article was posted in another thread. Boeing is going to keep trying to milk profits from the 747 air frame until the market says no.

I hope you are right, but the last firm order from an airline was in June 2011. A more recent confirmation of an order came in Sept 2012 by Air China for 5 aircraft (but that was originally first ordered in March 2011). So there hasn't been any new orders for the 747-8I version for the last 2 years.

The freighter version (747-8F) is doing slightly better with more recent orders, so chances are the freighter version have brighter prospects than the passenger version. Unless Boeing gets some new order for the passenger version soon, it looks like the endgame for the 8I.

IIRC average service time for an airliner is 30 years. So unless something extraordinary happens Air China's 747 will be flying at 2040.

A similar scenario is playing out for the A380. No new orders in that last 12 or 18 months.

I think it is the basic economics of the new generation of twin engine long haul aircraft (A35x and B77x) that will eventually kill off both the 748 and 388.

But I have always loved the 747. It is the iconic jumbo (and will be missed when it is gone).

747 is more fuel voracious than 380. As said, is a project 45 years old. Which made the history of aviation industry. 19 LH orders, plus KE and AC for the latest 748 will make us see it alive for years to come.

So? Look at the 737.....

But the jumbo jet is not the 737, it's place in aviation history is different.

I'd turn that around and say the the 737 isn't the 747. It's place in history is different.

The engineers should continue to evolve the model to modern specifications and fuel efficiency, but I guess eventually a model change due to market differentiate.

Everything remaining the same, and 45 years later, eventually the 747 imho will become obsolete unless updated to continually meet market requirements and rigors.

these days most carriers are trying to get by with A320 and B737 family, and trying to make those long-range and cheaper to operate.

how long can EK/EY/QR keep ordering, because the # of travelers each year is not magically increasing......so many businesses now stop sending people on travel, they use the online meetings and such.