Preparing for the oil bust: electric planes?
 

I've been reading "Transport Revolutions" by Richard Gilbert and Anthony Perl. The authors (who are certainly reputable) are convinced that oil production will drop significantly in the next few decades, requiring that transportation shift away from oil-based fuel and towards electric grid-based power (e.g., railroads, not aviation).

What are airlines doing to be ready for this, if it happens?

Plenty of progress is being made towards electric cars, and electric trains (and buses) have been around for decades. Are airplane manufacturers doing anything to move in the same direction? Do airlines care?

Given how fuel price spikes wrecked airlines' financials in the mid-2000s, I'd expect that they would be trying to move past using jet fuel, but I see no signs.

Thanks.

Is this the oil bust story as of 1973? 1979? 1990? Or is it a new one? If so, how does it differ from any of the previous oil bust stories? Are the authors as reputable as the Club of Rome?

You have as much info as I do about them thanks to the Internet.

Back on topic: when cars and trains are moving towards electrification, what is the aviation industry doing?

Running really high power transmission lines.

Couldn't fuel cells be developed for planes? I assume that they could add only a portion of the energy that planes need, but is that an option?

Why would anyone bother? Oil isn't going to disappear even with a "oil bust".

But let's assume that the availability does spike down. What is most likely to happen is that transport that can move to other sources of motive fuel will do so first: cars and buses will move to LPG and CNG in the US. It's a cheap switch as the tech has been around and in widespread global use (except the US) for ~40 years now.

Cars can be converted for ~$1500 or produced OEM for under $500. Trucks are a little more tricky depending on the engine. With all those cars and trucks converting there should be enough oil left for airplanes to keep on chugging the way they do. And other forms of mass transit will also suddenly become viable economically. In the US, expect trains to suddenly be "discovered" for long distance travel.

Option B: bio-diesel. Planes run fine on it. Or can do, at least. Why mess around with new tech in new applications and all the associated costs. Watch instead the rapid and widespread adoption of an existing technology that avoids a major shift like "fuel cells" in planes.

Air transport is probably stuck with liquid fuels for the foreseeable future. The energy density of batteries is way too low, and fuel cells probably don't have enough efficiency over turboprop engines to make up for hauling the weight of the fuel cell around (nevermind the extra capital cost of a fuel-cell equipped plane). You're obviously stuck with a prop plane in either case, so flight times would increase--which means crew costs also increase and flights are that much less competitive with ground transportation.

As SeriouslyLost said, a jet biofuel is a likely long-term option. Shorter term, we would probably see more synthetic Jet-A made from natural gas (aka gas-to-liquid, or GTL) if oil prices rose substantially. Numerous airlines have trialed biofuels or GTL fuels. I assume they're crossing their fingers that the prices for such fuels comes down over the next few decades.

Nope. Read about what 'energy density' means and what is energy density of the most advanced batteries/fuel cells comparing to fuel (gas/kerosene/diesel).

In short: when energy density of batteries increases appx 40 times - (as a comparison - when Tesla on a single charge can drive 8000 miles) you have alternative of liquid fuel.

Really doubt it will happen in next couple hundred years.

I assume that they could add only a portion of the energy that planes needhttp://digitalso.com/9f.jpg

Am I misreading this? I don't think a Tesla (assuming you mean Model S) gets 2,000 miles per charge right now. Still, even with a 300 mile range (for the top end versions), your point is taken.

Sorry, one extra zero in the original post.

And really long extension cords...;)

Or wait till Musk builds his Hyperloop.

You'll know electric vehicles have made it when you're quite happy that the ambulance/fire truck/police car/rescue helicopter coming to save you or your family is one ... otherwise they're probably gonna run out of smartphone materials before we run out of oil.

This !!

Actually, this. In no way is it yet practical for airline usage, but I've seen electric aircraft demos underway since at least AirVenture 2006.