pinniped

3:1 feels about right to me.

I've long thought the bloggers were too pessimistic on both Marriott and Starwood valuations. I've valued my MR points at 1.25c and Starwood at 3.5-4.0. I used to value Starwood higher before the C&P changes a couple years ago - wasn't too hard to pull a 5-cent redemption, especially in places where the dollar was a little weak. My Marriott valuation simply treats FF miles as 1.5 cents. People who used to bake in the value of the Southwest Companion Pass or AA Lifetime status maybe had Marriott points higher, but now those "values" are dead anyway. Even today, the Travel Package I used in March in Hawaii and the one I'm using in 2 weeks in Rome, my total value on Marriott is conservatively in the 1.2-1.3 range.

So to me, it's about right on. If I had a pressing need to move some Marriott over to SPG to redeem an award, I wouldn't hesitate to do that.

Agree with those who recommend consuming points in 2018 in you can. I don't want to sit on a high balance when the programs actually merge and the new award chart is published. Combined the charts, there are 15 levels right now, which means they'll probably collapse it down a bit and bury a lot of Category Creep in there in the process. Good values will get much harder to find.

PHLGovFlyer

All of which tends to lead to the conclusion that 1:2.5 might have been a better all around answer (the "Goldilocks" ratio)

entropy

I don't think the ratio is out of whack. What is out of whack is the very high cost of SPG redemptions at the tier 5+ hotels, where the marriotts top out at (sometimes significantly) lower prices, and their award chart is sometimes hilarious.

For example, in NYC you can stay at a dumpy cat 8 hotel for 40k/nt (13k Star points, still cheaper than a Cat 5), or 45k at the JW on CPS (A very nice hotel), or I think 60? at the Edition, still in the Cat 5 range for starwood. I don't know about you but I'm not staying at a courtyard (or the element) for the same price as the JW.

And all of this matches the general notion that Marriott provides a better return for stays (2 vs. 10, 5x), while SPG CC spend is far more valuable (3:1 against nonbonused spend).

mdbe

I’m stating at a RC for 40k SPG for two nights. The other alternative was StR at 60k, Westin at 55k or Aloft at 45k. So i’ve yet to find a good opportunity to redeem SPG points but they’re exteemely valuable as marriott points.

vtgambler

I agree. I had about 400K SPG points at the time of the merger. I've found much better value redeeming them as 1.2M Marriott points.

pinniped

This.

SPG CC spend is still, to me, the most valuable everyday spending card in the entire market. I know there are CSR fans, cashback fans, Avios fans, and (I suppose) fans of this new blizzard of Hilton cards. But 1 SPG point is still worth more to me than any of those other cards' rewards for non-bonus categories. I do carry other cards to avoid FX fees and to hit a couple of my common bonus categories, but SPG Amex is still King of the cards IMHO. Gonna miss it when it's gone or heavily watered down in 2019.

howtofreetravel

Seeing as how marriot points will be dynamic in the future I imagine almost all value will be gone

rrgg

I don't see it. I guess it depends on the person:

• Yes, some Marriotts are a better value on the high end.
• Starwood locations are often better. Maybe it's just me. Maybe it's that MR might be more business orientated and I use awards for vacations.
• It's common knowledge SPG offers an award when a standard room is available. MR does not. Who cares if Marriott's price is slightly less if I can't get a room?
• Some MR awards are worthless. For example, I was going to stay at place near a friend's apartment, but the hotel only offers a studio double bed award, EVER. They have rooms with a queen or king but not as awards. To me that's useless.
• SPG lets me pay extra for a nicer category. MR does not. I've done this a few times, and it was worth it.

I hope they drag out the program merger as long as possible so we can get the best of both worlds. I'm disappointed in the rumor this is happening sooner rather than later.

pinniped

Marriott locations are sometimes better. Starwood locations are sometimes better. Some countries have a good Marriott presence and terrible or no Starwood presence. Others are vice versa.

SPG has better availability than Marriott, but since Marriott dropped the two-tier rewards structure I have had generally good experiences getting the awards I want. (MVCI is the exception - that requires quite a bit more flexibility than a regular award booking and even then you might not find anything. I've never attempted to use Starpoints at SVO.) I generally save my availability complaints for Hyatt and IHG. Frustrating when an HIX in East Podunk won't let me use my damn points.

I've run into Starwoods that had only one room type as an award. I've run into Marriotts that do this too. I've found some Marriotts that allow you to book upgraded rooms, and some don't. I don't think I've ever seen a Starwood allow me to book an upgraded room without phone calls or emails to find out if it's available. If I want a suite BADLY, I might call. Otherwise, Starwood awards are generally the base room for me - sometimes with a cash upgrade if the property sends me an email offer that I can one-click accept.

I too hope the merger drags on. I have a feeling we're going to lose the best parts of both programs when it's done. Dynamic pricing completely kills all aspirational connection to the brand - at that point, it's as interesting as any other simple rebate program. There will still be value in the program, but it'll be as interesting and emotionally-connecting as the annual check that Costco sends me in the mail.

DaveGT92

just joining this discussion as i believe the 1:3 ratio is a horrible devaluation of the Starpoints and i'm looking for an alternative rewards program. The ratio should be 1:5 at least. i've stayed in SPG hotels that are over $500 / night for 10,000 points.

DaveGT92

Guys/ Gals... i'm frantically trying to use my 130,000 Starpoints before this horrible conversion. I have 17 nights reserved at a value of over $4,500, this is no way you can get that with the same amount of marriott points

PHLGovFlyer

Not sure what your point is here? You're getting about 3.5 cents per point of value from your 130,000 SPG points (450000/130000). My most recent MR redemption (RC Aruba) netted me 1.5 cents per MR point at the cheapest available room rate. It was actually closer to 2.2 cpp when you consider the 3 category room upgrade we received.

So the ratio between the value you're receiving from SPG points and what I received from MR points is about 2.3:1. If you consider the upgrade I received it would be about 1.6:1, but in fairness you'll likely get some sort of upgrade that will change that ratio.

In this example, with the 3:1 conversion ratio you'd get better value converting your SPG points to MR.

DaveGT92

Hi, sorry in my note i'm not trying to give the extreme example, i'm probably not getting the best conversion right now. I've have been upgraded to rooms at the St. Regis, that list well over $1500 per night for 10,000 points. I've done Marriott, Hilton and SPG, and i'm trying to say that Marriott is general is 5x more points for the equivalent value of room.. I do typically get 4 -5% value on the money i spent to get the points. So typically room is $450 / night for 10,000 points. A nice room at Marriott and Hilton for that matter is at least 50,000 points for comparable room.. An average SPG room is 7k points, whereas Marriott and hilton are 35k points. Just saying in general from my experience it's about 5:1 ratio.

Believe me, if you have a better idea on what to do, i really want to hear it.. It looks like i'm canceling my SGP Amex card do to the program change. I also have Hilton and the Hilton Amex is going to be much better. I'm not familiar with the Marriott Chase card or how it compares to the other two.

PHLGovFlyer

The thing with upgrades (especially to suites) is that they tend to skew the cents per point equations wildly. I've been upgraded to a suite at a RC property where the retail cost versus points paid worked out to over 3 cpp, but that is fairly extreme cherry picking. Lots of folks can chime in with cherry picked examples, but that kind of misses the point. IMO you really need to look across all of your past AND future potential reservations, ignore upgrades for the future ones, and come up with some sort of average cpp redemption value. That gives you a much better basis of comparison of relative value. If the ratio really was 1 SPG point to 5 MR points, then the top end SPG properties would cost up to 175,000 MR points per night while the top RC properties would only cost 14,000 SPG points, both of which would be pretty absurd.

First, take a deep breath. Fire sale burning your SPG points right now is a bad idea. With the change in redemption structure coming in August there will be some very good deals on high end properties available to be booked between August 1 and December 31.

TravelinSperry

If you need airline miles - consider using your Starpoints and the 25% conversion bonus to transfer to them. But personally - I don't think the August award chart will hammer the valuation. My guess is a 10% haircut. Of course ymmv.