*A update Dec 2011
 

http://www.centreforaviation.com/ana...n-of-eva-64664

Above article is a good summary of what to expect next year coming from ADD this week with the possible addition of BR.

• BR *A announcement expected in coming months in Taipei
• BR to be sponsored by CA
• More Chinese members expected mostly CA subsidiaries
• 3 top priorities for new CEO, namely China, India and Russia

Not mentioned in article:

• No mention of Australia as white spot
• Likely multiple current member exits

Likely according to whom?

JJ, TP, BD, JK are all possible, and I wouldn't be surprised by more than 2 of that group going.

I would be a seriously happy chappy if they got an Aussie partner but who? VB is clearly aligned with VX, Tiger is a small cheap (sometimes grounded!) carrier...

DJ is also aligned with NZ and SQ. They are *A best and only hope for an Australian carrier.

DJ/VA would indeed be a good match and would fill the *A Australia 'hole'. Virgin Australia being in *A would offer more global options to Velocity members than the current ad hoc arrangements.

In fact the various Virgin airlines globally would collectively be a good match for *A - while they all have their own separate FFPs, they already reciprocate between them.

I doubt UA/CO or US would be too happy with VX joining *A....

JJ just joined but their merger with LA can make this a reality in the near future :(.

TP will first be privatized, and the new alliance will be determined, based on who buys it. There's been interest both from IAG (BA-IB), LATAM (what would the new carrier be called then TAPLATAM or LATAMAP?) and one of the gulf airlines.


JK has a lot of codesharing with LH, but that can end quickly. They are in a bad financial state and just had a big illegal inflow of cash from the Catalan gov't.

If US merges with AA and leaves *A, then you'd have a hole to fill. B6 is also partly owned by LH so there's a possibility there too. However LH partly owns other LCCs who are not in *A

I thought LH already sold its stakes in B6. With or without US, VX won't add much to *A in NA because it's in direct competition with UA/CO on most, if not all, routes.

LAX

COUA is the biggest airline in the world. Bigger than AA, bigger than DL. They've got the USA more than covered. US is called the "ugly girl" for a reason... (for the record, US is my airline of choice when I'm in America)

US needs to go on a merger spree and get bigger, or they're going to get left behind. AS, F9, HA, all are good targets. AA, not so much..

No hole at all.