Time for a merger of ST & oneworld alliances?
 

With *A has twice as many partners as either ST & oneworld (27 vs 13 vs 12), it's continuing to grow (Copa, Avianca–TACA, etc) and the only alliance with more than one legacy US airline. Does this lead to an environment where it make sense for SkyTeam & oneworld to merge?

• The Continental, KLM and Northwest alliance merged into Skyteam in 2004
• Oneworld lost mexico coverage with Mexicana going away, Skyeam has Aeroméxico
• With the loss of Avianca, DL has no South American partner and ST's current only hope is woeful Aerolineas Argentinas, while oneworld has LAN (and a larger ST & oneworld may help keep LATAM)
• Both currently have just one one legacy US airline
• AA, BA & DL partner with Alaska Air

Coverage wise it makes sense & I'm sure FT'ers can come up with more reasons.

Of course the con's are AA & DL are currently duking it out in NYC & not too long ago they were battling it out for JAL & ST said that they'd go after LATAM. I'm not sure how BA-IB & AF-KL would feel about a merger alliance.

Intriguing idea. Somehow I doubt that AF/KL would mesh with BA/IB, and it would be interesting in Russia too, KE/JL would be a mess. Those all ignore the AA/DL problem.

Too bad it could not happen.

Willie Walsh said that he likes mergers, this just may not be what he had in mind..

One area of strength for both ST & oneworld over *A

DL has a NRT hub yet still pursued JL joining ST. JL & CX are in the same alliance.

Your enemy's enemy can be your friend. Is DL vs AA a bigger issue than the the new UA+CO & *A?

At first blush it sounds good from FF redemption, but it would likely cause to reduced competition and if they go with the lowest common denominator (SkyPesos).. ..on second thought..

I do not think that anyone in ST could have an interest in such a merger. ST is set to grow and expects to have 20 members in a couple of years from now. While *A will still remain slightly ahead (but not as much as the number of 27 members suggests because there are many small airlines among these 27), ST is in a very safe and comfortable second position. Actually it is only OW that is falling behind.

From the customer perspective, a merger of ST and OW would be a catastrophe as this would significantly reduce competition. (And this is why governments would try to stop it anyway.)

*A plans to add 5 members, ST 4, OW 2, not sure ST will be gaining much/any ground on *A, while the combined ST & OW just passes *A

*A has 46% of the combined Passengers per year of all three alliances.
Said another way, a combined ST & OW would only have 15% more Passengers per year than *S

ST is in a very distant second. Second may not be a bad place to be, but it's no where close to *A.

So SkyTeam can bring their ridiculous award levels and fees to One World? No thank you!

Does anyone know the market share of *A in North America?

I doubt a merger between ST and OW would ever happen. While Star Alliance is surely bigger than ST & OW, bigger does not always mean better. I'm sure time will tell, but I foresee Star Alliance's large size eventually being somewhat disadvantageous.

Imagine UA or LH having 30+ other airlines trying to book award travel on their respective metals...

That's why UA and US Airways block many award seats on partners.

I believe a complete network is much more powerful than merely having a high number of carriers (or even passengers for that matter)...and I think ST and OW should work to fill their current holes.

Although an intruiging idea, while the US has DL, AA and UA, and Europe has AF/KL/AZ, BA/IB and LH/et al, there will be three alliances.

Really?

It depends very much on individual perspective. For me, ST comes a long way behind OW in terms of earning miles, retaining miles, redemptions and network coverage. I'm a member of FB and DL schemes.

As always on FT, YMMV. Noting your location, ST/FB may well be the dominant scheme at LCY. ;)

You could probably get close with this Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) report:
Table 3. Top 10 Airlines, ranked by January-December 2009 Scheduled Domestic and International Enplanements*


Wiki has a list of List of largest airlines in North America by Number of passengers
*The Delta numbers in Wiki don't seem to align with the BTS (maybe they're not apples-to-apples?)
*With Wiki, make sure you don't double count as it seems CO has its own line and additionally is also included in the UA total.
*Also with wiki I don't know if the regionals are also double-counted (are SkyWest Airlines flights also included in DL, UA, etc)

The effectiveness of an alliance does NOT depend on what YOU (the customers) get out at the end of the day, but it depends on what THEY (the airlines) get for themselves, like profits, bottom line, shareholders' values, stock price, etc.

No alliance revolves around you!

Let's see, BRIC countries are the future of the world, let's see who win:
- Star Alliance lost in Russia (besides Aeroflot and S7 Airlines, nothing much left, other airlines are so small)
- oneworld lost in China (besides Air China, China Southern, and China Eastern, nothing much left, other airlines are so small)
- SkyTeam not yet has a member in India and Brazil, but at least, there is something left (Jet Airways and Gol Airlines - and rumour is that negotiation is on the way for these two to join SkyTeam in the future, with Jet Airways more likely, while Gol still a bit unknown).

We must also note that SkyTeam is the "absolute winner" in China - the biggest market in the world (with China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Shanghai Airlines), in addition to China Airlines in Taiwan as well.

In Russia, Aeroflot is the clear leader for international routes.
In India, Air India and Jet Airways are on par with each other; while Gol Airlines is just behind TAM Airlines in Brazil.

After BRIC, there are also "Next Eleven" countries:
- Bangladesh: (none)
- Egypt: Star Alliance wins
- Indonesia: SkyTeam wins
- Iran: (none)
- Mexico: SkyTeam (with Aeromexico)
- Nigeria: (none)
- Pakistan: (none)
- Philippines: (none)
- South Korea: SkyTeam wins
- Turkey: Star Alliance wins
- Vietnam: SkyTeam wins

There are CIVETS countries:
- Colombia: Star Alliance wins
- Indonesia: SkyTeam wins (250-million population)
- Vietnam: SkyTeam wins
- Egypt: Star Alliance wins
- Turkey: Star Alliance wins
- South Africa: Star Alliance wins

There are MAVINS countries:
- Mexico: SkyTeam wins
- Australia: oneworld wins
- Vietnam: SkyTeam wins
- Indonesia: SkyTeam wins
- Nigeria: (none)
- South Africa: Star Alliance wins

There are VISTA countries:
- Vietnam: SkyTeam wins
- Indonesia: SkyTeam wins
- South Korea: SkyTeam wins
- Turkey: Star Alliance wins
- Argentina: SkyTeam wins

Now let's see the G20 countries:
- Canada: Star Alliance wins
- USA: (3 alliances)
- Mexico: SkyTeam wins
- Brazil: (situation unknown)
- Argentina: SkyTeam wins
- South Africa: Star Alliance wins
- China: SkyTeam wins
- South Korea: SkyTeam wins
- Japan: oneworld and Star Alliance win
- Indonesia: SkyTeam wins
- India: (likely 3 alliances)
- Saudi Arabia: SkyTeam wins (likely)
- Russia: SkyTeam and oneworld win
- Turkey: Star Alliance wins
- France: SkyTeam wins
- Germany: Star Alliance wins
- Italy: SkyTeam wins
- United Kingdom: oneworld wins
- Australia: oneworld wins

Now let's count the number of markets:
- Star Alliance: 7 markets
- SkyTeam: 11 markets
- oneworld: 6 markets

Does it show you that SkyTeam has the best strategy to get the most of the most important markets in the world?

Let's see the 13 countries with the highest population in the world:
- People's Republic of China: SkyTeam wins
- India: (likely 3 alliances)
- United States: (3 alliances)
- Indonesia: SkyTeam wins
- Brazil: (situation unknown)
- Pakistan: (none)
- Nigeria: (none)
- Bangladesh: (none)
- Russia: SkyTeam and oneworld win
- Japan: oneworld and Star Alliance win
- Mexico: SkyTeam wins
- Philippines: (none)
- Vietnam: SkyTeam wins

Let's count the number:
- Star Alliance: 3 markets
- SkyTeam: 7 markets
- oneworld: 4 markets

And did you see that SkyTeam is the clear winner in 4 of the above markets? (while this statistic is NONE for oneworld and Star Alliance)

So from the 2 above statistics, you tell me who is the number one in the world?

I would tell you SkyTeam (not even Star Alliance). The ones that should "merge" together are Star Alliance and oneworld. Just do the math: 3 + 4 = 7.

Interesting way to look at it, although your assumptions are inconsistent (assuming only losses for OW & *A and assuming only gains for ST).

If we remove assumptions and focusing on current and announced members:
- Brazil: *A
- Russia: ST & OW
- India: *A & OW
- China: *A & ST(3)

"Next Eleven"
- Bangladesh: (none)
- Egypt: *A
- Indonesia: ST
- Iran: (none)
- Mexico: ST
- Nigeria: (none)
- Pakistan: (none)
- Philippines: (none)
- South Korea: *A & ST
- Turkey: *A
- Vietnam: *A

- Colombia: *A(squared)
- Indonesia: ST
- Vietnam: ST
- Egypt: *A
- Turkey: *A
- South Africa: *A

G20 countries:
- Canada: *A
- USA: *A(squared) & ST & OW
- Mexico: ST
- Brazil: *A
- Argentina: ST & OW
- South Africa: *A
- China: *A & ST
- South Korea: *A & ST
- Japan: *A & OW
- Indonesia: ST
- India: *A & OW
- Saudi Arabia: N/A yet
- Russia: ST & OW
- Turkey: *A
- France: ST
- Germany: *A & OW
- Italy: ST
- United Kingdom: OW
- Australia: OW
*A: 10 (ignoring the squared)
ST: 9
OW: 8

100 million+ population:
(rather than arbitrarily picking 13 which includes Vietnam but excludes Germany)
- China: *A & ST(3)
- India: *A & OW
- United States: *A(squared) & ST & OW
- Indonesia: ST
- Brazil: *A
- Pakistan: (none)
- Nigeria: (none)
- Bangladesh: (none)
- Russia: ST & OW
- Japan: *A & OW
- Mexico: ST

*A: 5 (ignoring the squared)
ST: 5 (ignoring the 3)
OW: 4

Looking at the country analysis above:
- ST & OW overlap in Russia, Argentina & USA
- *A & ST overlap in China, South Korea & USA
- *A & OW overlap in Japan, India, Germany & USA

What exactly does "squared" signify in your list?