My guess is that if this going to be a route that starts in winter, it'll be one or more of Cordoba (would almost certainly be from MIA), Cape Town (would probably be from either MIA or JFK), or Melbourne (likely from LAX). The mention of PR joining OW in this article is notable... so maybe AA will add LAX-MNL?
https://www.flightglobal.com/strateg...ter-doha-exit/

If I had a vote I would certainly cast it for COR. All of Americans EZE bound flights have been doing quite well as of late, and US bound travel from Argentina has never been stronger and will probably stay that way given the (relative) strength of the Argentine Peso. MIA would be the natural hub for the COR flight, although if I had to choose I would rather they serve COR from DFW... alas, given the infatuation that most of my countrymen/women have with Miami, I think that if COR gets added to the American network, all bets are on Miami getting that flight.

Do you know when American will announce the new routes that will replace the axed middle east flights.....?

Thanks !!

PS: now, if UA would start service to EZE from SFO or LAX to add more capacity, that would make be a really happy camper !!! (sadly, it doesnt seem like UA has much interest in competing with AA on Buenos Aires service - I really miss the ORD flights back in the days when United had a proper F.... sigh)

Based on other airlines it will take 12-18-24 months for Philippines Airlines to become a full OW member.
PH fly to HNL, LAX, JFK, SFO, SEA, YVR, YYZ. So less need for a full ff partner to compete head to head on the same route.
AA codeshare on PR operated flights for some routes.

Given the a couple of 787's that are most likely "free airframes" with the removal of the PHL-DOH flight, MIA-JHB would be at the edge of the range of a 787-8 with JFK-JHB well beyond the advertised range. CPT would be perhaps 200 miles closer, but doesn't have the connections Johannesburg has. Going to Jo-berg allows potential connections to sub-Saharan Africa via Rwandair, who just happens to be 49% owned by Qatar (plus Kigali's redeveloped airport is 60% owned by Qatar).

LAX to MNL is well in range...LAX to MEL is like CPT or JHB. Cordoba seems likely to be an XLR route. The question I would have about MNL surround the airport's troubled reputation. Does AA want to play in that pond? With that being PR's hub, I could see AA taking the Doha route and not flying directly themselves.

Something else worth noting is that MIA-EZE is up to 4x daily during U.S. Winter. That's DFW-LHR's frequency on a peak day during the year. Shows that there is demand for more U.S.-Argentina flying during the winter.

I mention CPT as a possible destination because AA threw that out as a possible route during an event earlier this year (COR was mentioned too) and I believe the South Africa routes are cash cows for DL/UA.

While MEL wasn't mentioned at this event, I threw that out as a possibility because JV partner QF used to have a 2nd subdaily flight on LAX-MEL and DL is ramping theirs up to daily later this year.

There�s more to range than just distance, but JFK is of course slightly closer to JNB than MIA is, by great circle distance.

I doubt double connections via KGL are a factor in any potential choice between CPT and JNB.

PAL also serves ORD starting in November.

I flew to the 2019 total solar eclipse with my 2 friends using the MIA-COR flights. I think I used 50-60K miles each way in business. What I really liked was the 9 am departure to the USA.

As the economics of flying changes dramatically, I'm not sure I'd expect any new routes.

I think it's very unlikely this is JFK to South Africa. Not only does AA seem to dislike very long flights, AA does not get enough feed into JFK vs what UA can get from EWR/IAD and DL ATL.

The Philippine Airlines angle could be interesting, not now but in the next 1-2 years. AA has no good way to get passengers to Southeast Asia on its own metal. JL obviously gives comfortable service out of TYO but that is quite out of the way and a route where it's probably better to keep passengers staying in Japan vs connecting with demand strong. AA seems disinterested in flying to HKG anymore (which is sad). A flight from LAX could be something.

ELP-LHR

did you read the article

I didn't read the article prior to my previous comment, but I now have, and I still stand by my comment. I think AA is going to need to cut flights and routes, not start new ones. I think they are in for a really bad year financially.

AA is gonna do whatever they think is best, but personally I would absolutely LOVE to see MIA-CPT. The current routing via DOH is cumbersome and LHR on BA is often unpalatable due to exorbitant fees. Fingers crossed.

Also agree with others that the whole point of PR joining oneworld is that AA does NOT need to fly there.

HKG and MEL are well served by oneworld partners as well. CPT would open up a whole new corner of the globe that's really hard to reach currently.