VTHokieFlyer

I'm planning on booking a trip to NRT to visit my brother for my dad, my other brother and myself... prices have finally dropped from $2000 to $1500 for SWU'able fair and I would like to buy the tickets. Which route, IAD-NRT or ORD-NRT on 12/26, do you guys think I would have better luck using SWU's on?

gijoe24jp

Honestly, I would not use SWU and bet on op-up instead. Op-up occurs very frequently (at least to me) during winter vacation especially on TPAC routes since Y tends to be overbooked and C tends to be empty due to lack of business travelers. As a result, they will move elites to C when Y is overbooked and as a 1K, you should be on top of the list.

But then again, like most upgrade, there's no guarantee. Roll your dice and hope for the best. As for ORD or IAD, I think they are about the same during the holiday season.

goingbananas

My crystal ball says:
As of today, I would do the ORD-NRT both directions. With it being 4 weeks away, it could change.

VTHokieFlyer

.bomb shows y0 and b0 for the ORD-NRT while seatcounter shows y9 and b9... does IAD-NRT have more elites on it than ORD-NRT?

I have 4 SWU's that expire in Jan. and 2 I got in Oct. for going over 150k so I don't mind using them for this trip...

goingbananas

ORD would have more elites than IAD, that week between XMAS and New Years would have less elites flying (except for MR people). Honestly though, I would be shocked, if you don't get the upgrade out of either IAD or ORD both directions to NRT for those days.

wharvey

I personally would think that the upgrade would be tougher out of ORD. It is a hub and will have lots more elites than DC. But I have not flown to Japan on either route in years.

I agree with you, I would use the SWUs and confirm vs "hoping" for an upgrade. I am sure that your father and brother would not get op-ups... that would be TOO lucky!

mh3265a

I fly frequently through NRT to GUM on government travel. Typically I find better upgrade opportunities on the ORD-NRT route. But, given the dates and the seat availabilities I think you'll eventually be able to upgrade on the IAD-NRT route. As you've seen right now both legs show NC0 but that sometimes changes based off loads in Y and C.

Also, as a side note, although there are more elites, 1K and GS to be specific, in ORD the IAD-NRT route fills up in C quickly because of government and business travellers. Upgrades are very hard on the IAD route. And, with only one flight per day from ORD and SFO the upgrade chances to NRT are more difficult. Hopefully this will change when UA brings back the second flight to SFO in the spring.

Finally, I would recommend NEVER banking on an op-up...that is risky business!

VTHokieFlyer

IAD-NRT is about $200 cheaper right now than ORD-NRT... but ORD-NRT has more open E+ seats

schley

I'm on the IAD-NRT tomorrow. I will report back what is up. I'm doing a MR on an K fare thus no SWU's for me (officially, although I will still ask to use one).

I will be continuing on to SIN from there. I'm hoping for at least 1-2 op ups for these 4 legs as I will be in E+ the entire trip.

denverhockeyguy

I flew ORD-NRT on 11/25. I know at least 4 ppl that got opped-up, both on fares < W. I think they may have op-uped at least 10-15 ppl in total. A fellow flyertalker (MobileBuckey) was a recipient on a S-fare.

VTHokieFlyer

B/c I want to upgrade I should buy these tickets separately instead of the same PNR right?

well I went LGA-ORD-NRT on 12/26 and NRT-IAD-LGA on 1/1... now it's time to cross the fingers!

goingbananas

my crystal ball says...99.83% chance of it clearing all segments.

mobilebucky

Yes, I was one of the lucky op-up recipient on the ORD-NRT flight (actually L fare outbound S fare return) to C after denied by agent at check-in and RCC offering to use SWU. Apparently 11/24 ORD-NRT flight had to turn around after an hour and cancelled with some sort of electrical problem. So Y was packed, the same flight on 11/25 had problem with UHF satellite and after 3 hrs delay they have to change the flight plan and fly over AK instead of the polar route.

I am still waiting for my NRT-ORD flight to clear on 1/4 (H fare). My ORD-HKG (W fare) flight on 12/15 just clear today.

schley

Was on the IAD-NRT flight yesterday. 2 people didn't clear their SWU's according to the anecdotal evidence and board info.

eightblack

If it was me, I'd go out of IAD and with regards to booking process, put you and your Dad on the one PNR and your brother on a separate PNR. The challenge is that you'll have to roll the dice and probably wait up until day of departure and DM takes over.

If by chance, you and your Dad clear prior to DOD, get to the airport with plenty of time to try and do what you can at the RCC or even at the gate for your brothers upgrade (I can promise you he wont clear prior to DOD).

If you can, gift your brother Premier Associate prior to making the booking (should have received this as one of the elite options this year). It wont help much, but it will go some ways towards getting him off the bottom of the upgrade ladder.

Keep calling the 1K desk and try and find and friendly agent - to see what the load looks like.

And never depend on an op-up. The flight loads are way too erratic (as well as United's IM system) and the distance too far without you doing all you can. And as you said, the SWU's wont be any good to you in the new year - so you may as well burn them.

Good luck.