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YUL - FRA - chances of e-upgrade with no economy seats?

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YUL - FRA - chances of e-upgrade with no economy seats?

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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 5:39 pm
  #1  
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YUL - FRA - chances of e-upgrade with no economy seats?

So learning this whole eupgrade thing and game...

AC874 from YUL-FRA on 6/21/13 currently shows the following:

J7 C1 D0 Z0 Y2 B2 M0 U0 H0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 R0

What are the chances that R seats would be opened for e-upgrade in this scenario? Or would everyone be waitlisted?

Also for the waitlist, is it first come first served? Or do they put E75K and E100K above the E50Ks for the waitlist. (I am aware of the fact that E75K and E100K would probably be able to get on the waitlist first given they have a bigger window for e-upgrades).

Last edited by cooleddie; Jun 15, 2013 at 5:56 pm
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 6:49 pm
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My understanding (and we have no evidence of any of this) is that before the flight enters airport control (T-24), the waitlist has everyone in the order they requested an upgrade. So a P25K requesting when their window opens would be above a S100K requesting an hour after that.

However, once it enters airport control, the order resets, and is SOMETHING like status, then fare class, then check-in time. But previous (upgraded?) flying time on the trip may bump you up, and being nominated may bump you down.

As for your flight, they're either sold out in Y, or oversold. Y only reaches 0 when they are so oversold they know they're screwed. And I usually see that combined with a drastic decrease in J, since they know they're going to have to upgrade people.

You will almost certainly not get the upgrade in advance. You will be put on the waitlist, and you may get it at the gate. J7 doesn't look too bad, and it's possible they've lowered J availability because Y might be oversold.

Just keep checking the availability.
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 6:51 pm
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At the gate SE's will get first crack at any seats that come available. Once they're all accommodated, the E75's come next. If there are any seats left after all E75s have been accommodated, they will look to E50's.

This is a fair system. If someone flies 100k a year (or moreso, 95+ segments) they deserve all the breaks they can get.

Not sure about YUL-FRA ....... on the YYZ-FRA flights I've done, it was usually a case of 10 SEs fighting it out for 2 or maybe 3 available seats. Of course, your mileage will vary.
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 7:08 pm
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Originally Posted by Symmetre
This is a fair system. If someone flies 100k a year (or moreso, 95+ segments) they deserve all the breaks they can get.
- Haha agreed with you on that one. I got E50K through 56 segments through CRJs and related cousins - hated it. I cant imagine doing 95 segments to get E100K.

Originally Posted by Symmetre
Not sure about YUL-FRA ....... on the YYZ-FRA flights I've done, it was usually a case of 10 SEs fighting it out for 2 or maybe 3 available seats. Of course, your mileage will vary.

My flight plan is as follows: YTZ - YUL - FRA - FCO. Then return is VCE - FRA - YUL - YTZ.

This is a personal vacation trip and I purposely routed myself through Montreal/YUL for the following reasons

1. To avoid the FRA rush of superelites at YYZ (I've seen those before - been on that YYZ-FRA flight :P). Hopefully less business superelites flying between YUL to FRA

2. Flying out of YTZ and connecting via YUL was actually $150 cheaper than flying direct out of YYZ (thank goodness for ITA Matrix!). The direct to FCO was even worse.

3. Benefits of saving the $55 cab fare to Pearson airport for a personal trip is also good (I live downtown TO) - and avoiding evening traffic rush on the gardiner. I could literally bike to Billy Bishop airport and take the flight out from there if I knew how to dangle my carry on roller behind me on my bike! However, I'll settle for a $3 TTC fare.

4. Arrive at Billy Bishop airport 30 min before the flight and I would still be good!
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 7:13 pm
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Originally Posted by Symmetre
This is a fair system. If someone flies 100k a year (or moreso, 95+ segments) they deserve all the breaks they can get.
I disagree. If someone flies that much on lowest Flex, why should they get more than someone who spends twice as much but flies a fraction of the miles in Y? It's actually a disincentive to buy higher fares.

I can buy Y and get nothing, or I can buy ten S fares for the same price, cost AC more money transporting me around, and get more benefits.
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 7:16 pm
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Expert flyer shows 16 unassigned seats in J, which is a lot, and makes me wonder who are those 9 people who bought seats but didn't get seat assignments.

The AC web site says you'll be wait listed. Look up a one-way trip YUL-FRA on that date, even if you say you're E100 and pay a Latitude fare, they'll still wait list you. So bring that pillow for your Y seat.
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 7:35 pm
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Originally Posted by jrlevine
Expert flyer shows 16 unassigned seats in J, which is a lot, and makes me wonder who are those 9 people who bought seats but didn't get seat assignments.

The AC web site says you'll be wait listed. Look up a one-way trip YUL-FRA on that date, even if you say you're E100 and pay a Latitude fare, they'll still wait list you. So bring that pillow for your Y seat.
Does that happen often? 9 peeps with no seat assignments? Unless they bought under codeshare through another airline (e.g. Lufthansa?) and didnt bother calling AC to get seats assigned?
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Old Jun 15, 2013 | 8:46 pm
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YUL - FRA - chances of e-upgrade with no economy seats?

Does AC do blanket J blocking? I feel that when I do a dummy booking sometimes, AC zeroes out J. To go from J9 to J0 in less than 72 hours is strange. It's possible, or is it a case of a blanket block?
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 1:40 am
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Originally Posted by hydrogen
Does AC do blanket J blocking? I feel that when I do a dummy booking sometimes, AC zeroes out J. To go from J9 to J0 in less than 72 hours is strange. It's possible, or is it a case of a blanket block?
I've seen J go way down when Y is oversold (i.e. Y0).
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 7:09 am
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Indeed the flights changed again today. Zero econ class now. No more Y class.

J7 C1 D0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 U0 H0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 R0
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 12:16 pm
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Originally Posted by cooleddie
Indeed the flights changed again today. Zero econ class now. No more Y class.

J7 C1 D0 Z0 Y0 B0 M0 U0 H0 Q0 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 R0
It's oversold then. If Y is 0, I'd bet the flight is oversold by at least 2-3%.
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 12:33 pm
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Originally Posted by canadiancow
I've seen J go way down when Y is oversold (i.e. Y0).
What does this suggest:

J0 C0 D0 Z0 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V7 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 R0

Blocking, or could J really be sold out?
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 12:50 pm
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Originally Posted by hydrogen
What does this suggest:

J0 C0 D0 Z0 Y9 B9 M9 U9 H9 Q9 V7 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 R0

Blocking, or could J really be sold out?
There's no reason to block J if they're still at Q9.

Looks like J is sold out.
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 12:55 pm
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Originally Posted by canadiancow
There's no reason to block J if they're still at Q9.

Looks like J is sold out.
Don't you think ~20 unassigned J seats seems a bit high? That is, unless one guy bought 10 J seats and didn't want to assign bums to seats.
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Old Jun 16, 2013 | 1:33 pm
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Originally Posted by hydrogen
Don't you think ~20 unassigned J seats seems a bit high? That is, unless one guy bought 10 J seats and didn't want to assign bums to seats.
Rule #1 - Don't trust the seat map
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