Greetings folks,

With the positive movements at PAL by the "new" San Miguel Corp (SMC) management to expand and re-fleet, notwithstanding, improving customer service levels on the ground and in the air. If they do not join an alliance, what are their ultimate chances of financial survival if they do not swiftly join an alliance. They most certainly are not EK, and can't go-it-alone. Anyone betting on OW or SkyTeam (* is probably out of the question).

Keep flying, guys.

AirCrew

I have a feeling that it will be OW, with Garuda joining ST the possibility of Philippine airlines joining ST is like 0%. ST already has a strong SE Asia presence, whilst OW only has MH and CX

I think it will be OW. FWIW, PR and CX used to do codeshares out of CEB and MNL to HKG.

Not too confident on oneworld, as you can see in my signature. HKG is too close to MNL and will most likely eat market share away from CX as PR has major expansion in mind. Plus, I'm afraid that PR will be devalued in oneworld, as was the ultimate plan of CX when PR went bankrupt in 1998: if my memory serves me right, they wanted to acquire PR so it could be subsumed into CX, and were only unable to do so because of Philippine constitutional restrictions on foreign equity.

If ever, it has to be SkyTeam or Star. VN and GA are only in SkyTeam because they're important key markets which the alliance wants a piece of, and PR codeshares with both of them: the codeshare can be used to PR's advantage as it can more easily funnel Vietnamese and Indonesian passengers onto PR's trans-Pacific flights in an alliance setup.

As for Star, MNL is too far away from SIN or BKK to pose any real intra-alliance threat the way MNL and HKG could turn out if PR joins oneworld. PR also plans to open new service to FRA, YYZ and JFK/EWR in the future: important Star Alliance hubs.

(As far as I know, the previous management had favored oneworld, but I heard the new management favors SkyTeam. I can't be too sure about the latter, but the former is confirmable.)

You must really hate oneworld and I'm not sure why! Although, a PR 777 would look nice in oneworld colors ala CX's B-KPL

Anyways, I honestly feel that PR has norhing to bring to any alliance. In SEAsia, SQ, TG have it covered for Star, VN and GA for Skyteam and CX, KA, and MH for Oneworld. MNL is just not that of an important destination or hub. I would really like to see them join oneworld though.

I do not think Star would look for yet another partner in the Far East. oneWorld is the weakest alliance in Asia (plus CX may one day go to Star - who knows... with all the CA and Swire saga), so it would make sense for PR to join OW - but I am not sure what is better: be a small player is a strong alliance OR be a more significant player in a weak alliance...

Yes, GA will entry the Skyteam sometime in early 2014. PR is unlikely to join the OW or Star Alliance.

I don't hate oneworld per se: overall, the alliance has some strong members that I wouldn't mind flying again (CX, MA [RIP] and BA come into mind for me). What I don't like is an airline joining an alliance so that its role would be merely to feed the strong neighboring airline, rather than be given an incentive to induce organic growth.

The PR-CX relationship for me is contentious in this way: I'm afraid that if PR joins oneworld, CX will reap all the benefits of such a relationship to the detriment of PR (that is, if PR doesn't try to eat market share away from CX first when major expansion kicks in). If they've tried to do it before back when PR was in bankruptcy, what's there to say that they won't try it again?

Well, CX is under new management now so who knows. Besides, PR is getting back on its feet especially with mounting aircraft orders and a vision to build its own airport.

I think the reverse is true -- CX would probably block PR's entry into OW as CX would lose market share to PR. For decades now, the Philippine market has been a major feeder market for CX long-haul flights. (Over 10,000 MP Club members; more than 50% of pax on flights MNL-HKG are transit, I've been told, at least about five years ago.)

I for one would welcome a choice, after all these years with CX, sometimes because they were the only convenient link to Europe/S Africa, NYC etc. Now with new planes, new management, new routes to JFK, YYZ etc....PR is looking promising, finally!

* and ST have always strived to overlap routes/destinations almost everywhere, while OW has the less overlap. Anyway none of the three alliances would do any benefit to PR, given the size of the local market and the penetration of the neighboring airlines already in an alliance. PR would rather do better code sharing with as many as possible, or perhaps considering a tie with a Mid-East carrier acting as a local point-to-point carrier.

Would love for it to be Star, but gut feeling is that it would be OW. Doubt that SkyTeam could happen; DL would want to squash fearing it would strengthen PR as a challenger to them in the US-Philippines market. UA might view bringing PR into Star as an opportunity for code shares that could better challenge DL than through its current, sole, multi-legged offering through Guam (old CO route). Similarly, although CX could easily balk, AA might welcome PR into OW as a way for it to get codeshares directly between the US and the Philippines.

On the contrary, PR in SkyTeam could solidify DL's hold over the U.S.-Philippines market. Combined, PR and DL hold the largest share of that market. PR paired with UA or AA, which funnel their traffic to the Philippines via alliance partners, would still be no match for a PR-DL pairing.

At the same time, PR would be able to funnel more SkyTeam passengers from Southeast Asia to the U.S. DL doesn't serve Indonesia, for example, and passengers from CGK and DPS can connect to U.S. flights via MNL, followed by onward DL flights as DL continues to strengthen LAX (which I hope stays that way).

I'm not sure how many people actually bother to go to the Philippines from the U.S. via HNL and GUM, but I bet the number is minuscule. Most UA traffic to the Philippines is funneled via OZ and, more recently, NH. A PR in Star would, however, solidify Star's hold over Southeast Asia, and would cement dominance over U.S.-Southeast Asia alliance traffic.

AA already funnels U.S.-Philippines traffic via CX. Just because AA and PR have a good working relationship however does not mean that it will be a virtual free pass into oneworld: if it saw the value in codesharing it could have done that outside the alliance framework, but chose not to do so.

I don't think PR would work very well in OW given that much of the Filipino population in Canada takes CX for cheap process.
I.E. the $700 N base fare this year.
EK is also popular.
I also wonder what would happen to the beer selection in the CX lounges in a retaliation, because San Miguel is always available.

Don't you think that could lead to CX quitting OW though?
Especially since QF is also backstabbing them with 3K HK.
Not to mention competition with their partners from Europe (BA, AY)
If CX quits OW AA miles will be like SkyPesos.