Some maths on QF vs. Generic US based FF program
 

In the recent thread on the QF changes a.. well let's call it "lively debate" ensured regarding QF's FF and changes Vs. the Generosity of a FF program from a certain non-affiliated US airline.

Not wanting to jump into the debate side I decided to sit down and crunch some figures and share them with the forum.

The original assertion was that the average punter couldn't get 100,000 QF FF points in a year to secure the highest upgrade award of 90,000 points for a one way upgrade in zone 5.

I will extend this assertion somewhat to include equivalent status, status credits and SC/UC earning on QF and the equivalent (if any) in a generic US program (they are all fairly similar although I shall base it on the one I obviously know best).

Assumptions I shall make:

1. An average punter will fly discounted economy fares (we all know full fare/C/F is a different kettle of fish)
2. We won't include bonus points earning potential from cards, hotels etc. I will just compare paid flying.
3. Because the various programs are different one has to approximate various equivalencies.
4. I will assume a base member starting with 0 status/miles and try and adjust for status bonuses.
5. The QF program we know well:
Silver @ 350 SC's - 25% bonus miles
Gold @ 700 SC's - 50% bonus miles
Plat @ 1400 SC's - 100% bonus miles

Upgrade Credits (UC) - 1/450 SC's earned(using 1/1/04 rules as that was the base of the assertion)

6. Our "generic" US program:
Silver @ 25,000 miles/25 segments (25% bonus miles)
Gold @ 50,000 miles/50 segments (100% bonus miles)
Plat @ 100,000 miles/100 segments (100% bonus miles)

Upgrade credits: N/A, only domestic earned for elite levels excepting the 100,000 mark when some form or other of ug cert is provided, either 6 or 8.

Cost in miles to upgrade equivalent to QF zone 5 flying: 60,000 miles based on Australia-London via US although technically a australia->ORD/NYC fare would be equivalent to zone 5 and only require 30k miles to upgrade discounted Y->C.


Now. to the maths.

100,000 miles/points.

Flight equivalences.

To get 100,000 points on QF....

1. 100% domestic travel in the "triangle"
assume: MEL-SYD one way trips @ 1,000 points min earned and 10 SC's.
After 35 one way trips 35,000 miles silver status achieved
After 35 more one way trips, 700 SC's achieved, 35,000 miles earned + 25% bonus=78750 total.
After 15 more one way trips, 850 SC's achieved, another 15,000 miles earned with 7,500 bonus miles at Gold status.
Total: 101,000 miles.

Therefore you'd need to fly 85 one way trips to make 100,000 QFFF miles flying just domestic short one way hops. You would earn 1 upgrade credit and QF Gold status.

2. 50% domestic as above/50% international.
assume: international trips are zone 4 SYD-LAX in discount Y which we'll credit at 7500 miles and 40 SC's.

To simplfy this maths I'll assume half of the above figures for the domestic trips. So: 43 domestic one way trips, silver status and 44,750 total miles and 430 status credits.

To get to 100,000 miles (just over) this would be 6 more one way giving a total of 56250 miles (inc 25% silver bonus) and 240 SC's.

Total: 101,000 miles. 49 flights, 670 SC's, Silver status and one UC.

(phew this is hard work! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif)

ok, let's now assume totally flown international segments - all SYD-LAX as above, 7500 base miles, 40 SC's discount Y.

After 9 one way flights, you would have 360 SC's, silver status and 67500 miles. With the 25% bonus you'd need 4 more flights to obtain 37750 more miles.

Total: 12 flights, 520 SC's, 1 UG, silver status and 105,000 miles.

OK so that's QF with 3 extreme situations examined.

So let's try that US program.

For domestic sectors of a MEL-SYD length, we'll use that other program's minimum mile accural which is 500 miles. However this program ALSO awards status based on segment count.

Therefore after 25 one way segments you'd have 12,500 miles but silver status: 25% bonus kicks in.

After the next 25 one way segments you'd have 28,125 total miles and 50 segments = gold status and 100% bonus miles (double).

So, to make 100,000 miles you would then need a further 72 one way flights for a total of 122 segments at minimum mileage.

ADVANTAGE: QF (less flights of similar distance 85 vs. 122) to make 100,000 miles.

However at the 100 segment mark on the US program you would receive your uprgade certificates which would be equivalent to 6 (or 8) zone 5 upgrades on QF, thus equal to either 720,000 QF points (90k*8) or 3600 SC's(450*8) or another 294 (!) flights on QF.

Let's now try the 50% domestic vs. 50% international LAX-SYD flying...

Again, I'll use half the figure for the domestic value above. Therefore 61 flight sectors, 39,261 miles and gold status. To get over 100,000 miles you'd then need 5 one way flights each giving 15,000 miles (7500 flown plus 7500 bonus). Total: 114261 miles and 66 total flights.

ADVANTAGE: QF (49 flighs vs. 66).

However yet again the upgrade certs provided at the 100k level would make up for this.

And finally, all LAX-SYD flying:

After 4 flights: 30,000 miles and silver status.

After a further 3 flights: 52,500 flown miles (gold status), 58125 total earned miles.

After a further 3 flights you'd have: 75000 flown miles, 103125 earned miles and gold status.

Total: 10 flights.

Advantage: US program (10 flights vs. 12 and higher status level).

Now sure, we could go through this again using a K fare basis for domestic runs for QF, and QF would come out even better.

So what is the point of all of this?

Clearly, QF is based towards those flying higher yielding fares with the SC bonuses. It would take less "average" flying on QF though to get 100,000 miles except for the long haul example. However this is counted by the fact that most US programs (AA and UA certainly) give systemwide type upgrades at the 100k level that are equivalent to several times their equivalent value (ie: in mileage/UC's) on QF.

ergo.. your mileage may vary!!!

(Yes I am sure this is riddled with a few mistakes - it is very late in the night! I just wanted to try and put some figures to support the various arguments and let them speak for themselves rather than throwing opinions around willy nilly).

I hope someone out there finds this interesting! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif

------------------
RichardMEL, UA 1K
A Star Alliance Member.

[This message has been edited by RichardMEL (edited 07-06-2003).]

Just one quick point (will address the rest later) - nobody gets bonus points on SYD-MEL, as it is 495 miles, so even WP's, who egt 100% status bonus, would receive the 1000 point minimum.

Dave

RichardMEL, truly a masterful comparison and I (along with others I'm sure) appreciate your indepth analysis. Whilst on the surface (skim reading) it appears to hold up (given the assumptions), I like the thadocta will probably mull it over and test your hypotheses.

Of course, one of the main assumptions is that flights are based on exactly the same situations. This will probably match the majority of people who will use this comparison to judge which FF program is better.

I may be very different to others here, I hardly ever do pure return flights, my flights are multi-city and mostly K (or above) based fares. So I would think that if I crunched the numbers on that basis (post 1 July assuming a clean slate like you did), I would think QF will win hands down.

I'm probably back in MEL next week (as an example, I'll do BNE/MEL/CBR/SYD/BNE on this trip in K), I'll let you and others know, maybe we can chew the fat over this contentious issue over another beer...

QF WP, you say you normally travel on "K" fares domestically. Out of curiousity, is there any actual need for you to do so now, with the relaxation of conditions on the lower fares? It strikes me that for the great majority of people, there is very little reason to travel on anything other than the cheapest domestic fares now (except of course for availability). Indeed, I know of several organizations where the edict has gone out for domestic travel: your choices are QF "Super saver" fares, or Virgin!

whughes3, as I'm a partner in a family company (I'm 2nd generation), I have full decision making ability on what airline I travel as well as fare basis I travel on (as my division's profitability is part of my remuneration). So if I decide to fly K, I have no trouble justifying to myself and the rest of my family (as our travel policy - that I designed - was QF only). I'm not chasing the $$, I'm chasing the flexibility that the higher fares give me (and that I am very willing to pay for - peanuts, monkey syndrome).

I rarely have trouble accesing K fares (whereas I do with the lower fares on the flights that I generally do - business AM and PM peak times usually) and when I look at the additional "cost" of my time (because I book my flights generally out of normal business hours), it's a no-brainer for me.

The only ones that I wouldn't book in K would be personal travel (SC runs http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif).

With "true" or "full" SC's from 1 July, this will make is easy for me to re-qual for Plat every year. I'm willing to pay the extra $ for extra flexibility all around (which I need). I think the extra $ is well spent (status, QC access - although I'm QC Life, so Plat benefit is wasted on me)...

I wasn't intending to sound critical - how you spend your money is nobody's business but yours - I was just raising the issue of how much point there still is for most people of using the higher fare classes. (In terms of the SC credits, it seems that the treatment of such fares has been changed from "@#$%&* awful" to "just average"..certainly an improvement, but not a very generous one!)

I can empathise with QF WP with the need for the flexability aspect of K class or above - for me on work I've got to stay there until the job is done, and so am never sure exactly what time I'm coming home. I can certainly see that if I was just travelling for a training session or the like I could bump down to a lower fare and you can be certain I take the lowest price when it's time for holidays (once my holidays in place, no-one is taking them away from me! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif)

Our company policy was - if QF is in cooee of DJ, go QF, otherwise yagotta go DJ. Our Chairman tested the policy with a late (cheap) DJ fare BNE-MEL.

After a 2 hour op problem with the DJ flight, which got him home at around 2am, the new policy was:

"No more Virgins".

We also looked at the economics of using K only, or low fares. The board decided K was the go. It just doesn't work for most people in business who have a family at home, and the business doesn't want them spending too much (wasted) time in the QC because they bought a cheap fare to save a few dollars.

whughes3, wasn't taken as being critical...as it appears from like minded business travellers above, I'm not alone in my assessment. This is an excellent point being debated with different points of view...healthy for all on the Board getting both sides.

As the saying goes "beauty is in the eye of the beholder" - I think they are generous enough to continue to ply the K fare route, all things being equal and notwithstanding any possible increase in Status levels...

My usual ports are very similar to Willyroo's (well, we are in the same industry!) and my usual number of flight per reloc is 3 to 4. So, post 1 July, on averages I'll get 60 to 80 SC's per trip. I'm not http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif about the new basis.

I also do Asian trips (SIN, BKK, HKG trips -usually any two sites per trip, 2-3 year) and upcoming BA WT+ honeymoon
(BNE/MEL/SIN/LHR/DUB return), I'm http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif when these will be added to my flying this year. Bring it on, I say, bring it on http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/thumbsup.gif.

I would think I won't be alone in this assessment....

whughes3 raises an interesting point about discount fares. Now that even N class fares can be changed (with a fee), surely a lot of companies would be better off (financially at least) if they could book the cheaper fares where available.

Of course they're not always going to be available - I'm looking at going PER-SYD on Sunday, but there's nothing but full Y available. I've suggested they could send me via Adelaide - they save some money, and I get 100 status credits for the trip. (PER-ADL-SYD-PER) Everyone's a winner! http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif Except for having to travel on a Sunday. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/frown.gif

Steve

Yessven, yes it would work for some where they don't need changes at short notice. What percentage of travellers change?? I don't know??

However, where the employee (pax) has to change the booking at short notice (like GibSpmuh's personal example), there may be limited or no availability on those fares, have to pay the $27.50 re-booking fee plus the additional cost to the next available fare basis (which might end up being K anyway, where such short notice exists it may even be H, B or full Y).

I suppose it depends on the circumstances - but that's the reason I go to K from the start like GibSpmuh, Willyroo and others.

I see winners all round here http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/biggrin.gif http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/thumbsup.gif - winners are grinners, the rest can fly DJ

Sorry guys, you are not going to convince me to fly K class. I'll just take my place in the N queue (as opposed to the far queue....). I guess some are more winners than others.

Sadly, most of us have our lives ruled by nasty, small-minded people called "accountants", whose world view tends to be exceedingly hostile to anything that increases costs even a little, and to whom the prospect of cutting travel costs significantly by sacrificing a little flexibility is heaven on a plate!

As well, I am sure that QF have done their sums fairly accurately on the likely impact of the domestic fare restucture, and have concluded that the increased SC levels won't actually cost them anything in nett terms at the end of the day..I very much doubt they would be doing it otherwise!

Depends on your definition of "short notice" WP. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif Anything under K, changes are only permitted until the day before travel, so if a "short notice" change is the day of travel, and you're on N O L M V, you're stuffed!!! Same with N - can't change to another N, have to upgrade to next best available plus change fee, again no later than day before travel. Heaven only knows what the next best available will be - Y perchance?!?! At least the K allows you to
standby change on day of travel and if you do have to upgrade, it's not a lot more to the H. Not to mention there are a lot more K and H than O M L V on the flights - particularly peak or convenient times.
Bottom line is we all think different things will work best for us. There are the price leading travellers and the convenience and ease travellers. K gives you a little bit of both - and makes it hard to justify the Blue when they're the same $ and same conditions.
Cheers.
(PS - Bravo Richard. Interesting and no doubt time consuming piece of research. Heartfelt thanx for your time and effort.)

[This message has been edited by Al B (edited 07-07-2003).]