Originally Posted by IslandBased (Post 11734423)

Its the Behavior Detection Program that doesn't have the numbers to back it up, Bart.:td::td:

Originally Posted by Superguy (Post 11738882)

Did you expect anything other than a cute comment? Not that he would have produced any numbers ... :rolleyes:

Originally Posted by Mr. Gel-pack (Post 11738146)

Sorry.

Wikipedia lays out a nice example here for bowel cancer, but 2 years of TSA's BDO program would have something like:

TP=1266 FP=158,000

FN=???? and TN=1,460,000,000

if you care about druggies, and

TP=<1 FP=160,000

FN=<1? TN=1,460,000,000


...if you care about terrorists.

The fractions are so close to zero or 100% that it is nearly impossible to tell if you are making things better or worse. Including druggies, ID thieves, liars, tax evaders, and speeders is what one would have to do to keep the testers from dying of boredom.

Originally Posted by tsadude1 (Post 11740151)

I'm tracking what you're saying, but what I do not understand is how can a concept that has never been used on such massive scale for such a short time be deemed a positive or a negative? The highlighted sentence may be closer to the mark than you think.

Originally Posted by tsadude1 (Post 11740151)

I'm tracking what you're saying, but what I do not understand is how can a concept that has never been used on such massive scale for such a short time be deemed a positive or a negative? The highlighted sentence may be closer to the mark than you think.

Originally Posted by RadioGirl (Post 11738683)

I'll 'splain. Is no time, I'll sum up:
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.

But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight). :p

When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."

Originally Posted by Mr. Gel-pack (Post 11743704)

TSA keeps saying "effective". I'm not sure that word means what they think it means.

Originally Posted by LessO2 (Post 11743744)

They shift the goalposts so g***amned often, they probably don't know.

Originally Posted by RadioGirl (Post 11738683)

I'll 'splain. Is no time, I'll sum up:
a) 99.21% of people stopped by BDOs are not found to be doing anything wrong. (The "falsely suspected" factor.)
b) 0.79% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be doing something illegal. (The "sheer dumb luck" factor.)
c) 0.00000% of the people stopped by BDOs have been found to be terrorists. (The "needle-in-a-haystack" factor.)
d) 0.01% of all the people in airports were stopped by BDOs but were not doing anything illegal. (The "hassle" factor.)
e) there is no way of knowing how many people who were not stopped were doing something illegal (terrorist-related or otherwise).
f) If about 0.79% of the people who go through airports are doing something illegal, then the BDOs "secret powers" are no better than just randomly picking people out of the crowd.

But while we can play statistics all day long, I keep remembering this is an organization that agonizes over whether 3 is, or is not, 3.4, and struggles with fluid ounces versus ounces (weight). :p

When TSA says "BDOs are effective" they mean "it impresses the Kettles to have people asking questions in the airport."

Originally Posted by LessO2 (Post 11743744)

They shift the goalposts so g***amned often, they probably don't know.

Originally Posted by Mr. Gel-pack (Post 11743665)

Data miners, direct marketers, and spammers work with much larger programs on much smaller time scales and deem the results successes or failures all the time.

I thought the highlighted sentence was close to the mark because the "massive scale" of the BDO program is insignificant compared to the problem it pretends to solve.

If BDOs have a superhuman "lift" of 10000%, then the program would miss only 120,000 criminals for every 1266 arrests. But your BDO personnel would probably be smart enough to leave and earn their fortunes playing poker.

Originally Posted by IslandBased (Post 11743963)

Are you sure they actually have a goal?:confused: Maybe that accounts for the shifting- A goalpost forever condemned to wander aimlessly in search of its goal... Tragic.

Originally Posted by Mr. Gel-pack (Post 11743704)

TSA keeps saying "effective". I'm not sure that word means what they think it means.

Originally Posted by LessO2 (Post 11744303)

It's clear to me that PR is the goal of the TSA.

Originally Posted by RadioGirl (Post 11744569)

;) I can just see Blogger Bob saying, "They still don't trust us?! Inconceivable!" :D

Funding (which means continued existence and, if you're lucky, growth) is the goal, as it is for every gov't agency. PR is the means to achieve that goal.

Originally Posted by IslandBased (Post 11743963)

Are you sure they actually have a goal?:confused: Maybe that accounts for the shifting- A goalpost forever condemned to wander aimlessly in search of its goal... Tragic.