Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 10, 2019, 11:06 am
#76
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And for those that think it is an illogical, inane, and emotional reaction - to blame Max.. Sorry, please sit on the same airplane that went down within 48hr, on the same route, with probably the same stewardesses etc - and see if you don't start to freak out, or at least reconsider.
I was of the opinion that there was no safer time in history to be flying an Alaska MD-80. All the aviation-world's attention was on those planes and horizontal stabilizer. However there was a woman sitting next to me who was trembling and crying at each moment of turbulence. It is undeniably human nature. But you don't have to succumb to that. I expect that in due time there will be some kind of information released that leads people to feeling safe again to fly the B738Max.
Oh, and I just found out that I know someone who died today on the ET flight. I only knew him professionally, but yes it make you think.
Last edited by stimpy; Mar 10, 2019 at 11:12 am
Mar 10, 2019, 11:13 am
#77
Join Date: Feb 2010
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Most people (please note that I'm not pointing the finger specifically at you here) have a very poor understanding of risk and risk assessment, which can admittedly be mathematically challenging. Their approach therefore tends to be emotive, speculative, based on perceptions and gut feeling, and thus irrational to a greater or lesser degree.
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
I also fly as a passenger in single-engined (turbo)prop aircraft and helicopters, which have safety records far worse than large commercial airliners.
If I took a 54 times higher risk back then without giving it a second thought, I'm not going to spend too much time worrying about the risk of flying today.
Others may of course beg to differ, but I submit that worrying too much is not the best path to a happy and enjoyable life.
Johan
I've neither the time nor the inclination to do an in-depth study, but one statistic a quick search came up with is the following:
In 1970 the number of airline fatalities per trillion revenue passenger kilometers was 54 times higher than it was last year.
That did not stop people in general from flying back in those days, and it certainly didn't stop me, despite doing quite a bit of that flying on inherently unsafer communist airlines and pretty dodgy Sovjet airliners such as the Antonov 24 and Ilyushin 18.
I also fly as a passenger in single-engined (turbo)prop aircraft and helicopters, which have safety records far worse than large commercial airliners.
If I took a 54 times higher risk back then without giving it a second thought, I'm not going to spend too much time worrying about the risk of flying today.
Others may of course beg to differ, but I submit that worrying too much is not the best path to a happy and enjoyable life.
Johan
BOTTOM LINE : WHEN YOUR NUMBER IS UP YOU GO !
Mar 10, 2019, 11:13 am
#78
Join Date: Jul 2001
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I am reading that Ethiopian has an "excellent safety record in Africa". They have had, from a relatively small fleet, major jet crashes in 1996, 2010, and now 2019. The previous two went into the sea. No other African jet airline has had anything like that. It just shows what inaccuracies journalists write.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:19 am
#79
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I am reading that Ethiopian has an "excellent safety record in Africa". They have had, from a relatively small fleet, major jet crashes in 1996, 2010, and now 2019. The previous two went into the sea. No other African jet airline has had anything like that. It just shows what inaccuracies journalists write.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:32 am
#80
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This crash is going to be a mystery for an uncomfortably long time. Let's hope that the black boxes are recovered and usable.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:34 am
#81
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: MSP
Posts: 165
I personally would avoid flying on the MAX, but I also have a general fear of flying so I'm more affected by the psychology of it all.
From a statistical standpoint, how many flights has this plane had in total? Do any other current plane models have a similar record?
From a statistical standpoint, how many flights has this plane had in total? Do any other current plane models have a similar record?
Mar 10, 2019, 11:44 am
#82
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That the aircraft had suffered airspeed indicator problems on four consecutive flights is an established fact, not idle speculation.
That the pilots had problems controling the aircraft during the flight immediately preceding the fatal one is an established fact, not idle speculation.
That maintenance was carried out subsequent to that flight and that the engineers then declared it airworthy is also an established fact, not idle speculation.
That the aircraft then experienced control problems shortly after take-off and crashed with the loss of all on board is another established fact.
Given these facts, it is legitimate to ask whether the aircraft should have been grounded. The investigation report will surely answer that question in due course.
As far as the ET crash is concerned, the paucity of facts is currently such that all theorizing as to the cause is by definition idle speculation.
Sure, but that metric matters only if the these two crashes can be wholly or in great part be attributed to that specific aircraft type and its systems. If not, then it is totally irrelevant from a risk perspective.
That the pilots had problems controling the aircraft during the flight immediately preceding the fatal one is an established fact, not idle speculation.
That maintenance was carried out subsequent to that flight and that the engineers then declared it airworthy is also an established fact, not idle speculation.
That the aircraft then experienced control problems shortly after take-off and crashed with the loss of all on board is another established fact.
Given these facts, it is legitimate to ask whether the aircraft should have been grounded. The investigation report will surely answer that question in due course.
As far as the ET crash is concerned, the paucity of facts is currently such that all theorizing as to the cause is by definition idle speculation.
Sure, but that metric matters only if the these two crashes can be wholly or in great part be attributed to that specific aircraft type and its systems. If not, then it is totally irrelevant from a risk perspective.
- Maintenance releasing an aircraft that was not properly repaired or failed again post-maintenance
- MCAS causing unexpected downward pitch of the aircraft
- Pilots not following proper procdure for runaway elevator trim
I will be asking before every flight, and then visually looking at each plane. Sorry, but two brand new planes going down in the first 4 months of use at the same part of the flight - takeoff. That's enough to make me spend a few hundred bucks to take ANY other flight.. Screw Boeing.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:46 am
#83
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The 737M8 started commercial service in May 2017, and there are currently 350 in services. So it has very few flights compared to pretty much any other planes.
Regarding the “record”, i will say that no current plane in services had 2 crashes in their first two years of service. Hell the A380 has more than ten years and zero crash.
Regarding the “record”, i will say that no current plane in services had 2 crashes in their first two years of service. Hell the A380 has more than ten years and zero crash.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:50 am
#84
Join Date: Jan 2016
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If you took your kids to the county fair and I told you that statistically millions of kids ride red Ferris Wheels each year without incident. However, a new blue ferris wheel was just released and there's been two separate incidents in the last year that resulted in decapitation within the first few minutes the ride starts.
Would you honestly stand there and look at a red and blue Ferris wheel - side by side - and put your kids on the blue one - over the red one?
Just because we don't know that it's a problem with the particular model of airplane - doesn't mean there's not a problem with it.
I also don't believe that 'when you're number is up your number is up' - anyone who lives by that model is free to smoke, drink, eat crap and live a bad lifestyle because death is 'destiny' - a lot is in our hands, our exercise, what we put in our body, if we walk across the street with our eyes closed, and what choices we make about travel etc.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:58 am
#85
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I think I’m going to start booking away from the Max-8 for the time being.
AA120 LAX-DFW was cancelled today. It shows -800 in FlightView. I wonder if it was a MAX-8 and AA decided to cancel it.
Mar 10, 2019, 11:59 am
#86
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The 737M8 started commercial service in May 2017, and there are currently 350 in services. So it has very few flights compared to pretty much any other planes.
Regarding the “record”, i will say that no current plane in services had 2 crashes in their first two years of service. Hell the A380 has more than ten years and zero crash.
Regarding the “record”, i will say that no current plane in services had 2 crashes in their first two years of service. Hell the A380 has more than ten years and zero crash.
Mar 10, 2019, 12:01 pm
#87
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 387
Probably unlikely to do it for free (yet), but you might as well ring up and ask. It would be worth a £100 change fee in my view.
Alternatively, if your flight is still some time away, probably better to wait a few weeks and see what happens. There's at least a chance that the MAX will be grounded and then airlines might be more flexible with rebooking.
Alternatively, if your flight is still some time away, probably better to wait a few weeks and see what happens. There's at least a chance that the MAX will be grounded and then airlines might be more flexible with rebooking.
Mar 10, 2019, 12:08 pm
#88
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RTL, no.1 German private TV channel, reported in their evening news "RTL Aktuell" just 15 mins ago about speculations in the aviation sector "that Boeing could order the 737MAX planes to stay on ground temporarily" (literally).
Mar 10, 2019, 12:24 pm
#89
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I don't think it's just animalistic / blind fear.
If you took your kids to the county fair and I told you that statistically millions of kids ride red Ferris Wheels each year without incident. However, a new blue ferris wheel was just released and there's been two separate incidents in the last year that resulted in decapitation within the first few minutes the ride starts.
If you took your kids to the county fair and I told you that statistically millions of kids ride red Ferris Wheels each year without incident. However, a new blue ferris wheel was just released and there's been two separate incidents in the last year that resulted in decapitation within the first few minutes the ride starts.