Mar 13, 2019, 10:20 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Boeing 737 MAX 8 ET 302 registration ET-AVJ from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, was lost 10 March 2019 shortly after takeoff at 08:44L (05:44Z). There were no survivors.
The incident appeared similar to the 29 October 2018 crash of Lion Air 610, operated by a B38M.
7 Nov 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US carriers 30 days to comply with the AD note.
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Boeing 737 MAX 8 registration ET-AVJ performing flight ET-302 from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) to Nairobi (Kenya) with 149 passengers and 8 crew, departed Addis Ababa's runway 07R and was climbing out of Addis Ababa when the aircraft levelled off at about 9000 feet MSL, radar contact was lost shortly after at 08:44L (05:44Z). The aircraft wreckage was found near Ejere at approximate position N8.8772 E39.2512. No survivors were found.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
In a subsequent press conference on Mar 10th 2019 Ethiopian Airlines reported the crew reported difficulties and requested a return to Addis Ababa. The captain was with Ethiopian Airlines for 9 years and had about 8000 hours of flight experience, a first officer with 200 flight hours assisted, there were 35 nationalities amongst the 149 passengers. The crash site appears to be consistent with a steep dive, the aircraft is right inside the ground. The aircraft had undergone last "rigorous first check maintenance" on Feb 4th 2019. The aircraft had last operated to and from Johannesburg (South Africa) arriving back in Addis Ababa in the morning of Mar 10th 2019 before departing for the accident flight.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for previous flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link
Boeing 737 MAX and MCAS: See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Boeing has stated a revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in early April, 2019.
355 B38M deliveries have been carried out through 1 March 2019, out of 5,123 orders. Link to Wikipedia B38M list of Airlines, orders and deliveries.
Ethiopian Airlines ordered 25 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (B38M) and at the time of the crash of ET 302 on 10 March 2019. ET also operates 10 Boeing 737-700 and 16 Boeing 737-800 aircraft as part of its fleet.
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
Ethiopian Airlines is the flag carrier of Ethiopia, and commenced operations on 8 April 1946, expanding to international flights in 1951. The firm became a share company in 1965 and changed its name from Ethiopian Air Lines to Ethiopian Airlines. The airline has been a member of the International Air Transport Association since 1959 and of the African Airlines Association (AFRAA) since 1968. Ethiopian is a Star Alliance member, having joined in December 2011.
As of November 2017, the carrier served 105 international and 20 domestic passenger destinations and 44 cargo destinations. Ethiopian serves more destinations in Africa than any other airline. Ethiopian Airlines’ fleet consists of 106 aircraft.
- Wikipedia (link)
6 Nov 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced. See Aviation Herald discussion for information.
10 March 2019: ET 302, operated by Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 ET-AVJ departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.
Link to BBC article.
Link to Aviation Herald discussion.
11 March 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.
11 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines announced airline both “black boxes” - the cockpit voice recorder and the flight data recorder are recovered.
11 Mar 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet, and a number of countries have followed suit on 12 March 2019, including the United Kingdom and the European Union.Link to New York Times article.
11 March 2019: The US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.
Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.
Link to Wall Street Journal article.
12 March 2019: The USA and Canada are the only countries allowing the B38M to remain in operation.
13 March 2019: Ethiopian Airlines CEO Tewolde Gebremariam requests grounding of all B38M aircraft until the cause(s) of the crash of ET 302 is learned.
13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38Ms and bans B38M departures, arrivals and overflights.
13 March 2019: All USA operated Boeing 737 MAX -8 and -9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. At this time, all 737 MAX 8 are grounded until further notice.
14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.
Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia
15 March 2019: Aircraft manufactured Boeing plans to roll out a software upgrade for its 737 Max aircraft in 10 days. The US FAA is expected to sign off on the anti-stall modification to the MAX software 25 March. CNBC
17 Mar 2019: The French BEA stated the Flight Data Recorder data have been given to the Ethiopian Investigation Team. Borpth CVR and FDR “black boxes” have been downloaded and turned over to investigators.
17 Mar 2019 the Ethiopian Transport Minister said: "Recently, the FDR and CVR of Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 have been successfully read out. Our experts and US experts have verified the accuracy of the information. The Ethiopian government accepted the information, and the cause of the crash is similar to the Indonesian Flight 610. A preliminary reported will be published in a month with a detailed analysis. We are grateful to the French Government for its ongoing support." - Aviation Herald
17 Mar 2019 Ethiopian Airlines Twitter Account (Link) posted "The total flying time of the First Officer is 350 hours. Moreover, the Pilot in command is a senior pilot who has accumulated 8,100 hours. According to ICAO regulations any CPL holder can act as F/O in multi engine jet commercial flight up on successful completion of the full Type Rating training on the type of A/C. According to ICAO, it only requires a maximum of 200HRs to hold CPL. Ethiopean airlines in its effort to enhance safety established a crew pairing policy where by a less experienced F/O flies only with highly experienced Capt and vice versa".
17 Mar 2019: “Ethiopian transport minister Dagmawit Moge told reporters on Sunday that an evaluation of the black boxes from Ethiopian Airlines Flight ET302 and Lion Air Flight JT610 showed "clear similarities." - Link to Business Insider article.
18 Mar 2019: Aviation Herald learns new information of ET 302 departure routing and airport communication, and the possibility MAX simulator training and inclusion of training relating to MCAS and the JT 610 lessons learned may not have reached all ET cockpit crew due to the simulator training requirements of six month periodicity. Link.
19 Mar 2019: The Secretary if the US Department of Transportation, of which the Federal Aviation Administration is part of, has requested the Inspector General conduct a formal audit “to compile an objective and detailed factual history of the activities that resulted in the certification of the Boeing 737-MAX 8 aircraft” as part of an ongoing review of factors related to the MAX aviation certification. Link
Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]
Mar 10, 2019, 9:33 am
#61
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Mar 10, 2019, 9:45 am
#62
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Mar 10, 2019, 10:11 am
#63
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Once could be chalked up to pilot error. Happening again a couple months later after all pilots were made aware of the issue is much more concerning.
I will go out of my way to avoid the 737 Max. I refuse to fly an aircraft that very well appears to have a design flaw.
My thoughts to all the victims and their families. Terrible. Ethiopian is the best airline on the continent, I hope this doesn't hurt their image.
I will go out of my way to avoid the 737 Max. I refuse to fly an aircraft that very well appears to have a design flaw.
My thoughts to all the victims and their families. Terrible. Ethiopian is the best airline on the continent, I hope this doesn't hurt their image.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:13 am
#64
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That the pilots had problems controling the aircraft during the flight immediately preceding the fatal one is an established fact, not idle speculation.
That maintenance was carried out subsequent to that flight and that the engineers then declared it airworthy is also an established fact, not idle speculation.
That the aircraft then experienced control problems shortly after take-off and crashed with the loss of all on board is another established fact.
Given these facts, it is legitimate to ask whether the aircraft should have been grounded. The investigation report will surely answer that question in due course.
As far as the ET crash is concerned, the paucity of facts is currently such that all theorizing as to the cause is by definition idle speculation.
Johan
Mar 10, 2019, 10:18 am
#65
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Point taken in terms of peoples' perception of risk, however based on two fatal crashes in less than a year, without doing the math I'm pretty confident that the 7M8 has not been 54 times less likely to crash than in 1970 - indeed i suspect it has a worse safety record (so far) than the industry's overall performance in 1970.
Having said that, I'm still willing to fly the 7M8 (for now).
Having said that, I'm still willing to fly the 7M8 (for now).
Fortunately my 737 flight next month is not on a MAX, but if it were I would certainly be looking at re-booking options.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:24 am
#67
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You can visually tell the max because of the split wing, and the cowling. I will be asking before every flight, and then visually looking at each plane. Sorry, but two brand new planes going down in the first 4 months of use at the same part of the flight - takeoff. That's enough to make me spend a few hundred bucks to take ANY other flight.. Screw Boeing.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:32 am
#68
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Just got back to Brussels today from Seychelles and Addis Ababa. Woke up from a nap to see a bunch of messages from friends/family who knew I was flying Ethiopian. RIP to those passengers and crew on board. Really a lovely airline. So sad.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:41 am
#70
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And for those that think it is an illogical, inane, and emotional reaction - to blame Max.. Sorry, please sit on the same airplane that went down within 48hr, on the same route, with probably the same stewardesses etc - and see if you don't start to freak out, or at least reconsider. Surely, many would agree there is a deep history of new products being released that just have problems. From cars to cribs.
Admittedly, I know nothing about aviation safety - except I'm probably far safer on a MAX then walking across Moi avenue in Nairobi to get to the Kentucky Fried Chicken after dark.. However, I'd assume new planes have a far lower catastrophic failure rate than older planes, and have less service issues.
Two MAX have now crashed - one within 2 months and one within 4 months. Both soon after takeoff. Takeoff (as far as I know) is also statistically less likely then landing (and surely less than midair) to have a catastrophic failure.
In my humble (monkey brain) opinion - anyone would be remiss to put their family members or their own arse on a MAX until this is cleared up. Air flight is terrifying enough (for many of us) - who needs the additional stress of knowing you're on a new plane that has nosedived twice now.
Flying from Addis to Nairobi - I don't know - I watched out the window for the first 5 -10 min, I didn't notice any huge mountains at all - was pretty much flat red desert. There were some canyons a few min out... Certainly didnt' appear 'mountainous' in the way you might think of Switzerland or someplace else.
Admittedly, I know nothing about aviation safety - except I'm probably far safer on a MAX then walking across Moi avenue in Nairobi to get to the Kentucky Fried Chicken after dark.. However, I'd assume new planes have a far lower catastrophic failure rate than older planes, and have less service issues.
Two MAX have now crashed - one within 2 months and one within 4 months. Both soon after takeoff. Takeoff (as far as I know) is also statistically less likely then landing (and surely less than midair) to have a catastrophic failure.
In my humble (monkey brain) opinion - anyone would be remiss to put their family members or their own arse on a MAX until this is cleared up. Air flight is terrifying enough (for many of us) - who needs the additional stress of knowing you're on a new plane that has nosedived twice now.
Flying from Addis to Nairobi - I don't know - I watched out the window for the first 5 -10 min, I didn't notice any huge mountains at all - was pretty much flat red desert. There were some canyons a few min out... Certainly didnt' appear 'mountainous' in the way you might think of Switzerland or someplace else.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:46 am
#71
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No alarmist me. But the MAX storyline reminds me of the DC10 in 1979, which suffered a series of major incidents (some catastrophic, some not), all but one tied to design flaws in the rear cargo door + insufficient hydraulic system redundancy, and ultimately the FAA yanked the aircraft's operating cert in the US. There are more than enough red flags with the MAX to warrant serious investigation of the type.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:47 am
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Probably unlikely to do it for free (yet), but you might as well ring up and ask. It would be worth a £100 change fee in my view.
Alternatively, if your flight is still some time away, probably better to wait a few weeks and see what happens. There's at least a chance that the MAX will be grounded and then airlines might be more flexible with rebooking.
Alternatively, if your flight is still some time away, probably better to wait a few weeks and see what happens. There's at least a chance that the MAX will be grounded and then airlines might be more flexible with rebooking.
Mar 10, 2019, 10:55 am
#73
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Mar 10, 2019, 10:56 am
#74
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I am a 737 pilot. I fly both the NG models (-700/800/900) and the MAX (-9).
The investigation on the first crash is not yet complete but a lot is known about what happened.
The airplane had an issue with uncommanded nose-down trim events on several flights prior to the accident flight. That is known. What is not known is why the airline continued to dispatch the airplane without the problem being corrected. Absent any contrary evidence, we must presume that the mechanics believed that it was fixed each time. The final report will certainly provide information on this including if established procedures were followed and if there were any faults in those procedures.
The pilots of the airplane's next-to-last flight had the same MCAS event. They followed the established procedure for a runaway stabilizer which neutralized the problem and allowed them to maintain control. This runaway stabilizer procedure has been in place since the first 737 entered service over fifty years ago. All transport jets that I've flown has had a similar procedure. It is an quick and easy procedure to accomplish. From what we know so far, the accident crew did not accomplish this procedure. We will have to wait for the final report to find out why.
The inadvertent MCAS activation that they had on the first accident flight is just another failure that can cause a runaway stabilizer. The crew has no way of knowing why the stabilizer is running away. Knowing the cause isn't even helpful to them in fixing it. It could be the MCAS. It could be an autoflight failure. It could be a failure in the speed stability system. It could be a short in a trim switch. It could be a lot of things. Whatever the cause, the proper response is to accomplish the runaway stabilizer procedure. The introduction of the MCAS system on the MAX aircraft did not change that.
Very little information on today's accident so no way to know if any of this applies to that flight or if it was something completely different. As a 737 pilot, I've seen nothing from the first accident that causes me any concern in flying the MAX. In fact, I prefer flying the MAX over the NG due to the numerous improvements that have been made in the flight deck.
The investigation on the first crash is not yet complete but a lot is known about what happened.
The airplane had an issue with uncommanded nose-down trim events on several flights prior to the accident flight. That is known. What is not known is why the airline continued to dispatch the airplane without the problem being corrected. Absent any contrary evidence, we must presume that the mechanics believed that it was fixed each time. The final report will certainly provide information on this including if established procedures were followed and if there were any faults in those procedures.
The pilots of the airplane's next-to-last flight had the same MCAS event. They followed the established procedure for a runaway stabilizer which neutralized the problem and allowed them to maintain control. This runaway stabilizer procedure has been in place since the first 737 entered service over fifty years ago. All transport jets that I've flown has had a similar procedure. It is an quick and easy procedure to accomplish. From what we know so far, the accident crew did not accomplish this procedure. We will have to wait for the final report to find out why.
The inadvertent MCAS activation that they had on the first accident flight is just another failure that can cause a runaway stabilizer. The crew has no way of knowing why the stabilizer is running away. Knowing the cause isn't even helpful to them in fixing it. It could be the MCAS. It could be an autoflight failure. It could be a failure in the speed stability system. It could be a short in a trim switch. It could be a lot of things. Whatever the cause, the proper response is to accomplish the runaway stabilizer procedure. The introduction of the MCAS system on the MAX aircraft did not change that.
Very little information on today's accident so no way to know if any of this applies to that flight or if it was something completely different. As a 737 pilot, I've seen nothing from the first accident that causes me any concern in flying the MAX. In fact, I prefer flying the MAX over the NG due to the numerous improvements that have been made in the flight deck.