Delta buying into JAL? What will this do for oneworld?
 

you'd have to think they'd leave and go to Skyteam.....wouldn't that be the only thing that made sense?

please note that according to the report they are "in talks" and that nothing has been "confirmed" .....yet . Still , it was only a few weeks ago that a senior Japanese civil servant went public saying that JL should look at co-operating with DL

One World really needs to be more aggressive about maintaining its competitiveness.

if this goes ahead I would say that OW has a major problem with regard to Asia - and if they dont find a solution they are going to be at a major disadvantage when economic recovery comes to the worlds most populous continent

AA barely exists in the USA-Asia market and certainly would have a hard time competing against the combo of

UA CO SQ TG OZ CA from Star

or

DL/JL/CZ/KE/VN ( and maybe CI ) from Skyteam

BA s presence in Asia is a shadow of what it used to be , particularly if we leave India out of the equation


CX is Oneworlds Asia powerhouse together with subsidiary KA - but I would not underestimate CAs ambitions with respect to eventual ownership of CX - and while I love HKG ( my favourite Asian city ) I dont think Oneworld should put all of its eggs in one basket ( the near collapse of CX during SARS a few years ago is just one illustration of the dangers of doing this ) especially when that basket is dangling off the arm of the PRC .

Of the remaining OW members only QF and AY actually serve Asia at all , IIRC , and , while AY has been adding Asian destinations QF has mostly been pulling them ( or handing them over to nonOneworld subsidiary Jetstar or to codeshare partners )

Oneworld will need to make some bold moves if they are not to be left out in the cold in Asia.

Yes,but JL needs big cash.
$1.1 billion by the end of the year.
$1.8 billion by June 2010.
-according to TBS

JL has issued a denial

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a40x8ZBXN_MA

“The report of the tie-up talks is not true,” Japan Airlines spokesman Satoru Tanaka said by telephone. Delta spokesman Kent Landers declined to comment on the reports.

but then further down in the same story

“The reports that the two companies are negotiating a tie- up are probably true,” Ryuhei Maeda, director-general of Japan’s Civil Aviation Bureau, said in an interview today. “This is one of the ideas I have strongly recommended to Japan Air.”

It's certainly a worry - MX is still hanging out in the breeze, its entry into oneworld delayed (originally April 2009, and now presumably by the end of 2009) and S7 the only other new recruit ("sometime in 2010"). Compared with the robust moves in * and ST, this new possibility (we won't even address the possible delays or problems with ATI in Europe and what could happen with AA-BA-IB if that doesn't gel) makes it look like the "Vanishing Alliance." As I see it (admittedly not the most informed oneworld flyer, especially compared with some here):

Lose CX/KA and all that are left in Asia are paltry numbers of codeshares. (Sheer speculation: maybe invite Hainan Airlines? With merely 10 members and perhaps a major loss here... and Where's the expanded MU headed with its new acquisition, FM?)

Star (21 members, and growing!): ANA /All Nippon, Asiana, Air China, Shanghai (leaving?) Singapore, Thai, and Air India coming in. Extremely robust connections with non-Asian alliance member airlines.

SkyTeam (11 members and shrinking): China Southern, Korean; Vietnam coming. Bangkok, Kingfisher and Malaysia in discussion? JL? Gad!

In play: China Eastern? Quo vadis?

Earlier this year I found myself on AC, FM and 4P - no oneworld airlines going where I needed to go.

Hellooo, Vancouver, are you awake? Perhaps a burst of diplomacy and aggressiveness are called for?

Who else to woo in Asia?
 

Supposing that JL defects to Skyteam, which other players in the region would be fitting partners for Oneworld?

MH or BR? CI is not tied up with anyone but its reputation is not as "stellar" as the two others comparatively speaking.

From a major airline standpoint, with good possible code share connections.
Nothing
Loosing JAL would prevnt AA getting the in Japan code share/change business within Japna and opther points in ASIA.
It would be a major blow and probably result in less service to NRT
BR,CI, MU are bit players in the big picture.
BR is the only one that has any level of quality, BUT AA does not need a change HUB Partner in Taiwan.

AA no longer flies to Tokyo...
 

deleted...link to full WSJ story pulled.

deleted

Actually it is 24 members now, with some more additions this and next year.

Whilst I worry about OW more and more lately, I'm also curious if *A will survive (as-is) in the long run. With so many airlines in *A, they are directly competing with each other (in multiples) in just about every geography. I figure that will come to be a problem at some point (at least for certain members).

Oh this could be terrible news. Both Asia and Africa, my 2 most frequently visited continents, will have huge gaps! Here's hoping OneWorld starts looking for some decent alternatives quickly!

The airline industry is turning into a high school rumor mill with all this discussion of hookups and breakups. The other rumors from this year alone include:
BA and QF merging
BA and IB merging (at the same time as QF merger rumors)
QF and MH merging
S7 buying MA
LH hooking up with any airline with self-esteem issues.

Hmmm... I strongly encourage you to look up the definition of the word "rumor." I hardly think that publicly acknowledged merger discussions, by the companies involved, equate to a "rumor." The word rumor essentially implies no credible source or possibly even an untruth.

In the first two examples alone that you gave, both were publicly announced talks, by both parties involved. They were not kept secret.

Here are just the first articles that I found on each one:

"BA, Qantas merger talks collapse"
http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/18/news...ntas/index.htm

"British Airways and Iberia announce merger plans"
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/29/bu....14867688.html

The fact that neither of those two mergers was/has been consummated, doesn't mean that the attempt to consummate them was a "rumor."

Regards

My 2 cents ....

DL buys into JL and JL bolts to SkyTeam. Only a question of when, not if.

If AA is then serious about serving Asia (a stretch, I know) they should start service to HKG from JFK, ORD, LAX, DFW and codeshare the heck with CX and KA ex-HKG. Those two serve Asia much better than JL does anyway. AA would offer a lower cost Transpac alternative to CX from LAX and JFK. Maybe AA cuts one of the DFW-NRT flights and finds some more 777s and makes peace with the pilots on rules.

Hey, I can dream. :D

Just out of curiosity, is this statement based on your expert level knowledge of airline business issues? Or the fact that you read the Bloomberg and/or WSJ article, like the rest of us, that essentially said as much?

Regards

wow...it would be good to see AA start to serve HKG, getting straight to DFW or MIA direct would be nice

AA doesn't have any equipment which can make this non-stop, do they?

RJ?

Dont they have B777?

Dont they concentrate more on the middle east and south asia? I think East Asia is the more important one now for market

AA flies the 777-200ER. CO currently flies a 777-200ER n/s EWR-HKG. The difference between the two routes is about 7 miles.

Like I said at the start of my post, "just my 2 cents", not based on specific facts, inside knowledge or divine revelation.

However, having been a frequently flyer to and through NRT for the past 30 years and seeing it evolve and reading published reports on JL's financial woes and looking at the history of how conjecture in the airline industry will many times become reality, and after putting all the known facts together with "gut feel", my bet there is a 75% chance DL buys into JL and JL goes SkyTeam.

Or..... I could be totally wrong and I continue to collect AA Q-points and miles on AA/JL codeshares. :)

Well do YOU have anything of relevance at all, to add to the topic .. when you are done lecturing others here?:rolleyes:

mike

I'm guessing the irony of your own post adding even less relevance to the topic at hand flew right by you...

It's not at all my intent to lecture. I'm genuinely interested in this issue. I was asking what I believe is a fair question. The poster made an assertion; I'm curious if that assertion is based on additional knowledge that some of us might not have or whether it's merely "head nodding" with the news articles as written. The poster certainly doesn't need to answer if he/she doesn't like/agree with my question. Nor in fact do you...


Enjoy your weekend.

I believe the range of the 777-200ER is ~ 7695 nautical miles... So, no problem :)

Cheers.

Why would DL buy into a carrier like JL at all? Maybe it is just me but I think this would be quite a risky investment.

Hmmm... I strongly encourage you to look up the definition of the word "humor." :rolleyes:

And, to add fuel to the JAL speculation
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report...&asset=&ccode=

On the other hand this could happen:

Touche. Fair enough. Although, if one is trying to be humorous, it of course helps to be... well... funny. ;)

Thanks for posting the link. At this point, it's looking like JAL has had a few drinks and is definitely planning to go home with someone at the end of the night...

Regards

Well RJ does serve DEL, BOM and CMB in South Asia, as well as, HKG and BKK. So 3 in South Asia and 2 in East Asia. Not really extensive coverage for either market.

In an era of CHANGE in the airline industry, oneworld has moved too slowly and may indeed pay the ultimate price.

Hare and Tortoise springs to mind...

Delta isn't the only US major interested in JAL investment. It looks like AA is jumping in the mix for obvious reasons:

http://www.reuters.com/article/busin...58D04320090914

JL would provide a ton of connecting possibilities for DL in Asia. With NW's NRT hub in the fold, DL wants more connections there in additional what it serves with its own mental (still NW at the moment, I guess). Risky investment during this economic climate, but probably a boon when the economy rebounds.

LAX