Delta buying into JAL? What will this do for oneworld?
 

you'd have to think they'd leave and go to Skyteam.....wouldn't that be the only thing that made sense?

please note that according to the report they are "in talks" and that nothing has been "confirmed" .....yet . Still , it was only a few weeks ago that a senior Japanese civil servant went public saying that JL should look at co-operating with DL

One World really needs to be more aggressive about maintaining its competitiveness.

if this goes ahead I would say that OW has a major problem with regard to Asia - and if they dont find a solution they are going to be at a major disadvantage when economic recovery comes to the worlds most populous continent

AA barely exists in the USA-Asia market and certainly would have a hard time competing against the combo of

UA CO SQ TG OZ CA from Star

or

DL/JL/CZ/KE/VN ( and maybe CI ) from Skyteam

BA s presence in Asia is a shadow of what it used to be , particularly if we leave India out of the equation


CX is Oneworlds Asia powerhouse together with subsidiary KA - but I would not underestimate CAs ambitions with respect to eventual ownership of CX - and while I love HKG ( my favourite Asian city ) I dont think Oneworld should put all of its eggs in one basket ( the near collapse of CX during SARS a few years ago is just one illustration of the dangers of doing this ) especially when that basket is dangling off the arm of the PRC .

Of the remaining OW members only QF and AY actually serve Asia at all , IIRC , and , while AY has been adding Asian destinations QF has mostly been pulling them ( or handing them over to nonOneworld subsidiary Jetstar or to codeshare partners )

Oneworld will need to make some bold moves if they are not to be left out in the cold in Asia.

Yes,but JL needs big cash.
$1.1 billion by the end of the year.
$1.8 billion by June 2010.
-according to TBS

JL has issued a denial

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=a40x8ZBXN_MA

“The report of the tie-up talks is not true,” Japan Airlines spokesman Satoru Tanaka said by telephone. Delta spokesman Kent Landers declined to comment on the reports.

but then further down in the same story

“The reports that the two companies are negotiating a tie- up are probably true,” Ryuhei Maeda, director-general of Japan’s Civil Aviation Bureau, said in an interview today. “This is one of the ideas I have strongly recommended to Japan Air.”

It's certainly a worry - MX is still hanging out in the breeze, its entry into oneworld delayed (originally April 2009, and now presumably by the end of 2009) and S7 the only other new recruit ("sometime in 2010"). Compared with the robust moves in * and ST, this new possibility (we won't even address the possible delays or problems with ATI in Europe and what could happen with AA-BA-IB if that doesn't gel) makes it look like the "Vanishing Alliance." As I see it (admittedly not the most informed oneworld flyer, especially compared with some here):

Lose CX/KA and all that are left in Asia are paltry numbers of codeshares. (Sheer speculation: maybe invite Hainan Airlines? With merely 10 members and perhaps a major loss here... and Where's the expanded MU headed with its new acquisition, FM?)

Star (21 members, and growing!): ANA /All Nippon, Asiana, Air China, Shanghai (leaving?) Singapore, Thai, and Air India coming in. Extremely robust connections with non-Asian alliance member airlines.

SkyTeam (11 members and shrinking): China Southern, Korean; Vietnam coming. Bangkok, Kingfisher and Malaysia in discussion? JL? Gad!

In play: China Eastern? Quo vadis?

Earlier this year I found myself on AC, FM and 4P - no oneworld airlines going where I needed to go.

Hellooo, Vancouver, are you awake? Perhaps a burst of diplomacy and aggressiveness are called for?

Who else to woo in Asia?
 

Supposing that JL defects to Skyteam, which other players in the region would be fitting partners for Oneworld?

MH or BR? CI is not tied up with anyone but its reputation is not as "stellar" as the two others comparatively speaking.

From a major airline standpoint, with good possible code share connections.
Nothing
Loosing JAL would prevnt AA getting the in Japan code share/change business within Japna and opther points in ASIA.
It would be a major blow and probably result in less service to NRT
BR,CI, MU are bit players in the big picture.
BR is the only one that has any level of quality, BUT AA does not need a change HUB Partner in Taiwan.

AA no longer flies to Tokyo...
 

deleted...link to full WSJ story pulled.

deleted

Actually it is 24 members now, with some more additions this and next year.

Whilst I worry about OW more and more lately, I'm also curious if *A will survive (as-is) in the long run. With so many airlines in *A, they are directly competing with each other (in multiples) in just about every geography. I figure that will come to be a problem at some point (at least for certain members).