you are very quick to make definite forecasts for JL and MU. Let's revise your list a bit:

Star Alliance: SQ, TG, NH, OZ, CA, FM*
SkyTeam: KE. CZ, VN*, GA*
OneWorld: CX, JL

Remaining Carriers: MH, PR, AK

*VN will be joining in June 2010
*GA joining in 2011
*JL to remain in OW alliance
*FM merging with MU, speculated to join OW

(remember, is just a fun speculation, and as such, useless as yours :D)

I'm not sure why AK is listed in remaining carriers, Alaska Airlines isn't an Asian carrier. But further speculating:

Star Alliance: SQ, TG, NH, OZ, CA, FM*
SkyTeam: KE. CZ, VN*, GA*, CI*
OneWorld: CX, JL*, HU*

Remaining Carriers: MH, PR, 9W, IT

*VN will be joining in June 2010
*GA joining in 2011
*JL may remain in OW alliance
*FM merging with MU, speculated to join OW
*CI rumoured to be joining ST (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines)
*HU has expressed interest in joining OW

2222222222222222222

Here is my view on the OW options in Asia;

- My gut feeling is that JL won't defect to ST. I cannot give a definite reason why, but despite their bankruptcy, I think JL would continue to have a greater degree of independance and autonomy as per Japanese culture, and I think OW allows this more than a DL-dominated ST
- One of two possible scenarios for China. Either CA will defect into OW, given the partnership with CX. Alternatively, MU and HU could both join OW - covering PVG and PEK hubs, and having unique advantage of the only alliance with government and private Chinese airlines
- Indian airline will be either Kingfisher or Jet. Given the involvement in the global explorer product, I am more inclined to say Kingfisher
- Middle East, but still relevant - GULF AIR! - Majali (ex RJ CEO) has taken over at GF. He is employing a similar strategy to RJ, focusing on regional routes. RJ and GF already cooperate intensively on AMM-BAH. RJ is stronger in North America and Europe, while GF is stronger in the Gulf and India. The two airlines Middle East networks could complement eachother quite well.

Hopefully, the above scenario will prevail, and OW will be stronger in Asia.

As for the original posters comments regarding TLV. Once again, TLV is not the centre of the earth. Actually, in a way, because of RJ, OW provides the BEST service to TLV, providing a decent eastbound option with quick connections via AMM to BKK, HKG, DEL, BOM etc as well as to the US. Given my experiences on RJ, there are many Israelis who agree with me.

Alaska Airlines is AS, not AK.

It is a long time since I have seen speculation about MU joining OW , recently most of the speculation seems to revolve around Skyteam ( indeed there are many reports that they were about to sign up with Skyteam in the middle of last year and only put the process on hold to concentrate on the takeover of FM ) ... have you seen anything recently to indicate that they might be considering OW ?

- CA holds 11% of MU stock. Given cross shareholding with CX and concurrent action during SQ attempt to get MU shareholding, any decision to join ST will be vetoed/obstructed by CX;
- CX has agreement with MU to help train their FA. AFAIK it has not been cancelled nor renegotiated with CZ;
- CAAC is and remains silent on the matter, and they are the only ones whose decision counts.

Granted, these are old news, but are the ones established so far.
The reports, or more accurately speculations about MU joining ST revolves around phrases quoted from chairman Li, and are pretty recent. Discounting the drivel coming out regularly, such as "they are going to announce membership next week", there is any reliable news that points to an imminent decision by CAAC on the matter?

JAL decided to stay with oneWorld.

Great news.

MU is closer to SkyTeam now.

There have NOT been any "official" announcements yet….

any fact corroborating this? Or chairman comrade Li Shaoyong has waken up and given another oracular quote about it?

Sorry , how does CA holding 11% of MU stock give CX the ability to veto MU joining Skyteam ? Yes , I am aware that there is a degree of cross shareholding between CA and CX , but I dont see how CX having a cross shareholding in an entity which owns 11% of MU stock gives either CA or CX the ability to veto Skyteam membership for MU . Please could you clarify what you mean ?

just search for "MU SQ shareholding" in the forum, and you'll quickly find all the answers.

The codeshare has not been dropped. It is suspended because the FAA does not allow U.S. airline codes on Category II airlines at all.

El Al continues to place the LY* code on AA* flights. AA will be allowed to place its code on LY* flights when Israel returns to Category I.

You should watch more CNBC during your travel.

I tried that and it came up with a number of threads including this one but none of them explained how CX could block MU from joining Skyteam , could you please be a bit more specific about what you actually meant ?