It sure would since I had been planning to spend three or four nights in Uluru.

Thanks everyone, for your responses. I was afraid that was going to be the consensus. I will need to wait for Delta to cancel the flight I guess. Maybe by mid November things will open up again and I can go then. It might be better weather for Tasmania at that time anyway. So disappointed, though.

I think June 2021 should be ok. I wouldn't book anything to Australia/NZ in 2020 unless I were into issuing interest-free debt.

Lots of at risk communities up there so they are being very strict.

Have a family trip from IRELAND/HKG/SYD booked start of August. I have told the kids to forget about it as the borders will be closed.

This indeed is a depressing thought. In January of this year we plonked down a substantial sum in airfare for travel in late November-December of this year on Qantas to/within AU from the US for a special anniversary trip. I do hope things improve enough in 7 plus months for us to actually go.

Some chance by November but I would guess not earlier, so you'd be amongst the first tourists ... could make for a great trip. My own opinion is that unlikely before 2021 based on the current world situation.

I am going to hope I will be able to reschedule for late November as well. If there is a second wave as countries begin to reopen, that will end this possibility but we will know that by late summer or early fall. I agree with you it is a discouraging thought it won’t be until 2021.

Coming from the US I don’t like your chances. I expect that NZ and pacific islands will be first in and then next will be asian countries with a good track record like Taiwan and Hong Kong. US is currently one of the epicentre’s and is opening up long before it is under control so will probably get second, third and fourth waves. To get to Australia in november, i.e. before realistic chance of a vaccine or effective treatment, you will need to have pretty much eradicated the virus from your shores and have no open borders with countries that haven’t. Chances of the US being there would probably be 10% at best.

Wow, this is very sad to hear but thanks for the frank feedback. If what you are saying is a fair assessment, and a widely deployed vaccine and/or effective treatment will need to be available for us to travel to AU from the US, then really I would think 2021 is gone too as who knows when these solution will be available widely. Realistically, we are looking at 2022, no? Qantas will indeed need to be very flexible on rescheduling for us to rebook under this scenario for sure

Speaking to friends in Australia, I get the sense that, even if travel were slowly allowed to restart, it will come with a quarantine requirement that won't go away for a while, effectively ruling out a vacation.

Yeah, I’d agree with Londonelite. I think you will be able to travel in 2021 but I also think you’ll be doing a quarantine until you can prove you aren’t a carrier. That won’t be 14 days but it won’t be a test at the airport either.

The travel bubble discussion is accelerating here now and I think this is a bad thing for you. What it will mean is that there will be travel between Aus and NZ which releases some of the economic pressure to allow tourists into the country (because some international tourism will be allowed) while also making it more difficult to enter the bubble (because more countries are impacted so more countries to align border rules with).

The populations of both Australia and New Zealand are very nervous about international tourists (especially those arriving on bloody boats) as they do not want their economies shut down again. This will hit the inbound tourist market a bit but the expectation is that domestic and intra bubble tourism will increase to make up for a lot of that so that last little bit simply isn’t worth the gamble.

Yes, I heard about the awful impact from the Ruby Princess so I cannot blame any of the Oceania residents in the least. Sad for us, but given the intensity of the outbreak here, I suspect any international travel for Americans for the foreseeable future will be very problematic. Personally, we literally live for global travel so, while this is absolutely the least of worries for most people now, it will have a big quality of life impact on us. I am beginning to become resigned to having to cancel our trip to AU. If we can save the airfare invested that obviously will be a win of sorts...but rebooking the trip....not sure when and how that can occur for a long time.

I personally think the US will be one of the last places that is opened back up to travel. Watching from a distance it seems like anything but under control. Hopefully the bubble can grow a bit bigger over time. Adding South Korea, Taiwan etc would make for some places I wouldn't usually consider for holidays.

Just to put international tourism into perspective, it is AUD 45 billion out of total AUD 60 billion tourism market -- so 75% of $ is from international tourists. NZ tourists spent AUD 2.6 billion, so that "little bit more" is AUD 42 billion or about 2/3 ... so strong financial incentive to re-open tourism. USA was 3rd highest country in terms of number of tourists (after China and NZ). Some countries are adopting a medical certificate requirement for entry, perhaps that will become the way forward for travel ex-USA. Some of the Covid-19 tests are very reliable with almost zero false negatives (while other tests are close to worthless), so a testing approach is entirely feasible. To an extent it will have to be adopted (for airline crews, for example) even if not used universally.