I missed my first upgrade in two years last month on MSP-SEA Friday night. Normally that route hasn't been a problem for me. In any case, I had my exit row pre-selected so all was well.

I wonder if this is in part due to higher load factors? Haven't the load factors on NW been on a fairly steady increase? And haven't they been slightly reducing the frequency or volume of available seats? That'd be my guess. If someone wants to be a research hero, they'd go look up the load factors and prove me wrong. ;)

Your experience seems unusual to me. I missed 8 of 43 upgradeable segments as plat last year, and 3 of those were MSP-DCA or DCA-MSP. Other than LAX, it's the airport I have the worst upgrade track record with.

I attribute the low upgrade rate to the presence of two (one?) air marshall on every flight, reducing F inventory. Not sure if that is true any more. I also do a poor job flying in off peak hours.

I still prefer to fly coach into DCA vs F to IAD or BWI. It may be my favorite airport, due to convenient location, small size, presence of WC, ease of access to rental car lot.... many things keep me chosing it over the others. BWI's stock was rising, but the ice storm a couple weeks ago brought the karma score down a notch.

I did DTW>DCA>DTW for 11 months. High peak flights, Fri/Thurs 4-8pm out of DCA. Rarely did I get UG'd. My PE friend who did the DCA>MSP missed it 50% of the time.

One time I inquired, I was 59 in line. Yikes! I've heard them tell people, "there are still 19 PE who are on the wait list"

bhatnasx ... remember my words of wisdom ;)

Trust me, I will!

One reason I abandoned NW as a regular carrier in 2006 (aside from the labor uncertainty) was that I'm based in Seattle, and getting any upgrades SEA-MSP or MSP-SEA was very difficult unless I flew off hours. So I let my Plat status drop to Silver this year. I can get the exit rows on NW, should I fly them, as an AS MVP Gold. Not the same in terms of promise, but pretty much the same in terms of result.

If I flew past MSP or DTW more often (rather than ending trips in either), I'd reconsider. But SEA base is not easy on NW, just as someone else mentioned with LAX.

I can certainly understand that. And most of my MSP/SEA flights I try to fly off-hours whenever possible. The one I missed was the Friday 5pm-ish MSP-SEA flight, and it was PACKED.

I do wonder what your upgrade percentage is now that you've switched airlines. Presumably upgrades are tough at peak times on any airline, no?

I often fly on weekends and take red-eye flights back from the West Coast - and as a PE, I always get upgraded, although some of the upgrades come at the gate. Only market that has been really tough for me is DTW-IAH and back.

I didn't switch as much as shift. I've been MVP Gold on Alaska (their highest level) for a decade and was Platinum on NWA for only a couple of years. Rather than preferring NW for transcons, I moved those flights to AS in markets where AS has SEA-originating transcons. (I did a NW Plat status match on UA at the same time and never used it due to AS' nice SEA schedule.)

I still fly NW when I have to go to MSP specifically. But, for example, when I have to go to Cedar Rapids, IA, I'm more likely now to fly SEA-ORD on AS and drive, rather than fly SEA-MSP-CID on NW/Pinnacle.

I almost always am upgraded on AS for any flights that are not transcons. On transcons, it's not as often since -- like MSP-SEA NW business-hour flights -- there's a lot of high-level frequent fliers on them. But on AS I don't have to make connections when I fly to BOS, MCO, EWR, DCA, DEN and other non-stop destinations that AS serves from SEA. That, in itself, is a benefit, even if the identical seats are exit row.

Who knows? It may all change again in a year or two and I may fly NW more, depending on my travel patterns.

Upgrades tanking fast...
 

>>>>>>Greater number of Platinum Elites...

I don't think it's that. In Jan/Feb of this year I was 12 for 12, all Friday/Sunday evening travel.

In March and now April (flying at the same times) I'm 7 for 11 (64%) and since the MSP-MSN flight I'm sitting in the WorldClub waiting for is P0F0 the percentage since the new Elite year started March 1st could go down into the 50's by this evening.

ALL of these non-upgraded flights never ran EUA, because they were already full of people with confirmed F seats (visible by looking at very full F seatmaps before EUA was scheduled to run); my late upgrades on earlier Jan/Feb happened on flights where F was actually empty and coach was heavaily sold. On my recent non-upgraded flights, plats have been frustratedly asking at the gate, and the 2 top plats would get the upgrades (except in the case of a JAX-MSP flight where the GA gave away the upgrades according to her whim). And this after 90+ % upgrades both as a Gold and previously as a Silver flying in the same relative timeframe over the past few years!

In my experience it is not that there are more plats around (after March 1st there should have been fewer, on my flights), but that now it hasn't been the traditional plat/gold/silver upgraders who are getting into F.

Oh mightly one, does thou care to share thou words of great honorable wisdom? ;)

Indeed. We all can't be at every DC Happy Hour...or wherever the DC branch of the ringers meets. ;)

Come to the next 2% Club meeting later this month at the Marriott Gateway in Crystal City VA... I believe the date is 26 April ;) and all will be explained

[QUOTE=SchmutzigMSP;7538634]Sit tight. NW has been playing with load managements a lot lately and upgrades have been coming later than usual. /QUOTE]

This seems to be true. I've missed 3 u/gs in 5 years as a Plat, almost all upgrades have occured within the 5 day mark. The last 4 however, have shown zeros across the board but I've gotten them at the gate.

Is the date not April 28th? ;)

I'm afraid I can't just depart for a weekend. You'll have to give me a rain check. Dinner on me next time your in the islands? That tempting enough?