Check My Math (Delta vs JetBlue)
 

Chart

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...d8F6_S2IzDk5SA

Situation

I am going to be at college for the next 6 years and want to know the optimum balance between price and reward. I will either fly Delta round-trip nonstop from SFO to JFK or JetBlue nonstop from SFO/OAK/SJC to JFK. Currently, the lowest fare is $364 for Delta (kayak.com/delta.com) and $354 for JetBlue (jetblue.com) based on my next flight. Alaska (Higher fare), American (Higher fare), Continental (10 round-trips for 1 reward flight), United (Higher fare), US (Higher fare), and Virgin (Calculated 10 round-trips for 1 reward flight) have either higher fares or reward programs that are not adequate.

Delta and JetBlue Reward Programs Summary

5000 SkyMiles round-trip from SFO to JFK. 25000 SkyMiles gets Silver Meallion status, 50000 gets Gold, and 75000 gets Platinum. Silver gets 25% bonus miles, Gold gets 100%, and Platinum gets 100%. SkyMiles never expire as long as there is activity within a 2 year range. Medallion status is for one calendar year, so I don't fly enough to even reach the first status.

24 TrueBlue points round-trip from SFO/OAK/SJC to JFK. 100 TrueBlue points gets 1 free round-trip flight. It costs $154.38 to buy 25 TrueBlue points and $181.25 for 30. TrueBlue points expire in 12 months from the date obtained.

Conclusion

It looks like Delta has JetBlue beat by almost $200 over 6 years. I prefer JetBlue, but does $200 justify a better flight experience? That's where you come in. If I did my math wrong and the difference is minimal (I was thinking less than $100) enough, I will choose JetBlue.

Of course, this is all just speculation. There's no telling how prices will fluctuate or how airlines will change their frequent flyer reward programs over this very long period of time.

Thanks for your input!

welcome to FT :)

thanks for posting the chart, others may find it useful as well. ^

I have a ton of experience with Delta (DL) and zero experience with JetBlue (B6) so I'll share what I know about DL and what I can ascertain from your calculations about B6.

Every time you fly on a paid DL ticket on your route, you will earn approx. 5000 SkyMiles and 5000 Medallion Qualification Miles (MQMs). MQMs are what gives you status. When you reach 25,000 MQMs within a calendar year, you will be a Silver Medallion (FO) for the remainder of that year and 14 months after that. For example, if you earn 25,000 MQMs by May, 2009, you will be FO for all of 2009 and 14 months after (until February 2011). Achieving Gold Medallion (GM) and Platinum Medallion (PM) work the same way when you reach 50,000 and 75,000 MQMs in a calendar year. However, the calculator resets to zero on January 1 each year. If you fly three roundtrips and accumulate 15,000 SkyMiles and 15,000 MQMs each year, you will not earn status and you will not get any mileage bonuses.

Based on the math, it will take 15 paid trips on DL to accrue 75,000 SkyMiles which can then be redeemed (if there is award availability) for 3 RT coach tickets.

Similarly, it will take 15 paid trips on B6 to accrue 360 TrueBlue points which can then be redeemed (is award availability an issue with B6?) for 3 RT coach tickets.

It looks pretty equal based on your travel plans. However, you are projecting your travel out to 2014. That is a long way out and all sorts of things can change. Maybe you'll toss a few transatlantic (TATL) flights in there. You can earn miles on those if you choose DL, but no points if you choose TrueBlue.

Medallion status is based on miles flown from Jan 1 to Dec 31 of a calendar year. If you are only flying 3 times a year, you will never get status.

In two sentences you covered what it took me an entire paragraph to say. :)

I have no idea why you think that CO requires more miles for a reward trip than DL does; their current reward structures for "saver" rewards match and DL actually has more levels and higher rates for the non-saver rewards.

The thing to remember with JetBlue is that your points expire after 12 months, whether you've used them or not. You cannot extend the life of the points based on additional activity, unlike the programs of all the others you listed other than VX. And you get 2x points if you book online, so that gets you 12 points each direction of the trip. You'll still need to fly 3+ trips to get to your 100 points, and from what it sounds like you aren't going to make that in a year.

I also cannot figure out your sheet in terms of the accrual of JetBlue points. How do you go from 72 points to 2 points? It seems like you're redeeming a reward, but that doesn't happen until you surpass 100 points and you don't seem to ever be doing that.

Since this is not related to a Mileage Run, this thread better fits MilesBuzz!.

Kind Regards


rcs85551
Moderator, Mileage Run forums

You could get the JetBlue Amex; then the points would not expire, if that were an issue...

Of course, if you travel overseas, Delta would have an advantage.

Though who knows what the future holds for the airlines and all the frequent flier programs!

fuzz

Cool! Thanks for posting!

What he's doing is buying enough points to get to 100 (30 in this case), then using that award flight immediately. That's those lines that say $181. He's doing this because otherwise they expire.

On the Delta side, he's waiting to use the award flights at the end.

Honestly, the games you need to play for the JetBlue don't seem worth it. One screw-up and you lose your free flight.

Wow. I missed a pretty important fine print, so I guess no Medallion status for me. I revised the chart with no mileage bonuses, which puts Delta approximately $200 cheaper than JetBlue over 6 years.

Yup. My methodology just went out the window, but Delta still has JetBlue beat by about $200.

I thought Continental requires 50000 miles for a reward round-trip flight while Delta only requires 25000. Elite status or Medallion status doesn't apply to me apparently, so we don't have to compare reward status anymore.

Yes. 24 points per long haul round-trip with the online bonus. I know TrueBlue points expire after 12 months, so that's why I plan to purchase the additional points needed to surpass 100 before my points expire.

I don't plan on getting a JetBlue American Express card. Yes of course this is all just theoretical.

Yes I would have to be very careful and plan ahead, so my points don't go to waste.