Over 1M Points ?
Nov 26, 2017, 8:51 am
#16
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: JAX
Programs: UA Plat MM, AA Gold MM, Marriott LTT, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 3,770
I did not use my MR points for about 20 years, mainly because I had no status with Marriott and I got better value from HH and SPG points since I had status in those programs.
In those 20+ years, MR points devalued significantly. The first time I used MR points 22 years ago, 200,000 points was worth 7 nights at any Marriott in the world (Vienna), plus 2 economy tickets on BA (PHL-LHR-VIE) and 1 week of Hertz rental car. Similar travel package today would be more than double the points. In hind sight, I should have just cashed my MR points for travel packages before more devaluation.
I still have 400,000 MR points that I need to find an opportunity to redeem a travel package to convert MR points to UA miles.
In those 20+ years, MR points devalued significantly. The first time I used MR points 22 years ago, 200,000 points was worth 7 nights at any Marriott in the world (Vienna), plus 2 economy tickets on BA (PHL-LHR-VIE) and 1 week of Hertz rental car. Similar travel package today would be more than double the points. In hind sight, I should have just cashed my MR points for travel packages before more devaluation.
I still have 400,000 MR points that I need to find an opportunity to redeem a travel package to convert MR points to UA miles.
Nov 26, 2017, 10:01 am
#17
Join Date: Oct 2001
Programs: LTP, PP
Posts: 8,699
I agree with the sentiment of earning and burning, but in fairness the increase in number of points needed for a room is at least in part offset by the increased price of rooms.
Example: Suppose a particular room costs $100 and you need 10,000 points for the room. That's a penny per point. Suppose in 10 years you need 20,000 points, but the room rises to $200. That's still a penny a point. And for most people, it will take less work to earn that penny in 10 years than to earn it now.
While in practice the value will likely dip below a penny per point, it's also highly likely that the decline will be partially offset by higher room prices.
Example: Suppose a particular room costs $100 and you need 10,000 points for the room. That's a penny per point. Suppose in 10 years you need 20,000 points, but the room rises to $200. That's still a penny a point. And for most people, it will take less work to earn that penny in 10 years than to earn it now.
While in practice the value will likely dip below a penny per point, it's also highly likely that the decline will be partially offset by higher room prices.
What you can count on is the desirable locations will easily increase a Cat per year until the 7-8 level.
Burn as soon as you can.
Nov 26, 2017, 10:32 am
#18
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: TPA/DFW/K15
Programs: AA EXP, Mar AMB, HH LT DIA
Posts: 1,652
I'll end the year around 1.1MM. Evidently, I can't spend them fast enough. Started the year at 850K, redeemed $700K and gifted 50K.
Nov 28, 2017, 2:16 am
#19
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: WN A+ CP, UA 1MM/*A Gold, Mar LT Tit, IHG Plat, HH Dia
Posts: 6,285
I've earned 2.2 million MR points, lifetime. Never had more than about 400k balance at any time. As I reach 300k I always start thinking about a worthwhile major redemption-- usually a TP, but sometimes just a 5-7 night stay at a property where the cash-to-points tradeoff is good. I avoid carrying a larger balance because of devaluation.
It's important to understand that devaluation doesn't mean points become "worthless". A lot of people throw that term around implying that the points will have zero value at some time in the near future. That's hyperbole. It's nonsense. The points will still have value, just likely less value in general than they have if used today.
In the financial world we talk about discounting the value of cash based on its present value vs. future value. The value of a nominal dollar (or Euro, Yen, etc.) in the future is figured to be less than the value today because of the impact of inflation, plus the opportunity cost of the return that could be earned on that dollar if invested wisely today. The inflation component of this approach can be applied to deciding whether to amass Marriott points or spend them. Figure that your points will lose, say, 10% of their value each year. You can pick a devaluation rate lower or higher than 10% based on how you think any given program is likely to change.
I use 10% as a basic estimate for MR. At that rate I'm willing to stockpile points for 12-18 months to have enough for a major purchase at a good exchange rate. The devaluation along the way is a pain, though only a small one because of my timeframe under 2 years. I will not stockpile MR points for years "for retirement" or anything like that, as by then they'll have lost half or more of their value.
It's important to understand that devaluation doesn't mean points become "worthless". A lot of people throw that term around implying that the points will have zero value at some time in the near future. That's hyperbole. It's nonsense. The points will still have value, just likely less value in general than they have if used today.
In the financial world we talk about discounting the value of cash based on its present value vs. future value. The value of a nominal dollar (or Euro, Yen, etc.) in the future is figured to be less than the value today because of the impact of inflation, plus the opportunity cost of the return that could be earned on that dollar if invested wisely today. The inflation component of this approach can be applied to deciding whether to amass Marriott points or spend them. Figure that your points will lose, say, 10% of their value each year. You can pick a devaluation rate lower or higher than 10% based on how you think any given program is likely to change.
I use 10% as a basic estimate for MR. At that rate I'm willing to stockpile points for 12-18 months to have enough for a major purchase at a good exchange rate. The devaluation along the way is a pain, though only a small one because of my timeframe under 2 years. I will not stockpile MR points for years "for retirement" or anything like that, as by then they'll have lost half or more of their value.
Nov 28, 2017, 7:19 am
#20
Join Date: Oct 2001
Programs: LTP, PP
Posts: 8,699
Good advice above. I use 20% year over year as a devaluation benchmark as I've seen so many decent properties go from 25k to 30k yearly, hence 5,000/25,000 or 20%.
Nov 28, 2017, 9:06 am
#21
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: MR/SPG LT Titanium, AA LT PLT, UA SLV, Avis PreferredPlus
Posts: 31,008
Low 2 millions.Up 100K in the 7 months AwardWallet shows me, thought I've redeemed about 200K in that period.
Nov 28, 2017, 12:13 pm
#22
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Pittsburgh
Programs: Whoever Has the Best Bonus
Posts: 5,183
According to Marriott I've earned 1.7 million points and I currently have about 100k in my account. Like others I highly recommend using points when you can rather than saving as a retirement account. The devaluation is pretty severe; I'll specifically point out Hilton HHonors where I had over a million points at one point and now have basically zero. There specifically I've redeemed for stays in Hawaii that have now almost doubled in cost (less than a decade). I also have earned millions of Advantage miles and still sit on a pretty good chunk, and finding them basically impossible to use at any rate close to what I used just a few years ago.
It's nice marketing material to tell folks to save up miles over their lifetime for a once in a lifetime trip, but by the end of your lifetime that trip may be the Fairfield Inn in the next town over.
It's nice marketing material to tell folks to save up miles over their lifetime for a once in a lifetime trip, but by the end of your lifetime that trip may be the Fairfield Inn in the next town over.
Nov 28, 2017, 10:04 pm
#23
Join Date: May 2013
Programs: UA Au Marriott Ti Hilton C
Posts: 159
I've earned 2.2 million MR points, lifetime. Never had more than about 400k balance at any time. As I reach 300k I always start thinking about a worthwhile major redemption-- usually a TP, but sometimes just a 5-7 night stay at a property where the cash-to-points tradeoff is good. I avoid carrying a larger balance because of devaluation.
It's important to understand that devaluation doesn't mean points become "worthless". A lot of people throw that term around implying that the points will have zero value at some time in the near future. That's hyperbole. It's nonsense. The points will still have value, just likely less value in general than they have if used today.
In the financial world we talk about discounting the value of cash based on its present value vs. future value. The value of a nominal dollar (or Euro, Yen, etc.) in the future is figured to be less than the value today because of the impact of inflation, plus the opportunity cost of the return that could be earned on that dollar if invested wisely today. The inflation component of this approach can be applied to deciding whether to amass Marriott points or spend them. Figure that your points will lose, say, 10% of their value each year. You can pick a devaluation rate lower or higher than 10% based on how you think any given program is likely to change.
I use 10% as a basic estimate for MR. At that rate I'm willing to stockpile points for 12-18 months to have enough for a major purchase at a good exchange rate. The devaluation along the way is a pain, though only a small one because of my timeframe under 2 years. I will not stockpile MR points for years "for retirement" or anything like that, as by then they'll have lost half or more of their value.
It's important to understand that devaluation doesn't mean points become "worthless". A lot of people throw that term around implying that the points will have zero value at some time in the near future. That's hyperbole. It's nonsense. The points will still have value, just likely less value in general than they have if used today.
In the financial world we talk about discounting the value of cash based on its present value vs. future value. The value of a nominal dollar (or Euro, Yen, etc.) in the future is figured to be less than the value today because of the impact of inflation, plus the opportunity cost of the return that could be earned on that dollar if invested wisely today. The inflation component of this approach can be applied to deciding whether to amass Marriott points or spend them. Figure that your points will lose, say, 10% of their value each year. You can pick a devaluation rate lower or higher than 10% based on how you think any given program is likely to change.
I use 10% as a basic estimate for MR. At that rate I'm willing to stockpile points for 12-18 months to have enough for a major purchase at a good exchange rate. The devaluation along the way is a pain, though only a small one because of my timeframe under 2 years. I will not stockpile MR points for years "for retirement" or anything like that, as by then they'll have lost half or more of their value.
Personally, I doubt that we'll see a massive devaluation in 2018. 2019 may be a different matter when the two programs are combined. There's a lot to be said for SPG, but many of their point redemptions are brutal.
Nov 30, 2017, 6:51 pm
#24
Join Date: May 2004
Location: SDF
Programs: DL:360/DM/6 MMer; Bonvoy: Lifetime Titanium 10+M pts, 3100+ nights;
Posts: 1,441
I know the points are losing value but I can't spend them fast enough given my level of travel. After spending way too much time away from home (118 nights this year at Marriotts alone, let alone SPG, Hilton and Hyatt), the last thing I want is one more night in a hotel. I'm sitting at 3.7 million point right now but over my lifetime I have earned 9.3 million. Do the math... I've redeemed 5.6 million points along the way.
Dec 1, 2017, 7:20 am
#25
Join Date: Jan 2005
Programs: AA EXP, UA Silver (Thanks Marriott!), Marriott Lifetime Titanium & Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 643
I had 2.1M in my account back in February. Two trips with the kids and a 10 year anniversary trip (7 day TP) with my wife to Crete and I’m down to 900k.
i earn them faster than I can burn them.
I just took a look and I’ve earned 5.27M lifetime, so having less than 25% of my total points in my account seems just about right. I like the fact that we can go to any Marriott whenever we want. It’s my cushion and I realize that at some point in my career we will have to pay out of pocket.
i earn them faster than I can burn them.
I just took a look and I’ve earned 5.27M lifetime, so having less than 25% of my total points in my account seems just about right. I like the fact that we can go to any Marriott whenever we want. It’s my cushion and I realize that at some point in my career we will have to pay out of pocket.
Dec 4, 2017, 10:24 pm
#26
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 733
According to the marketing email I received today, I burned 1.5M Marriott pts this year so far. I redeemed for stays in 10 countries (Asia/Europe/Africa) + a few Nights & Flights combos.
Meanwhile I only have 3 paid night stays, lifetime.
I envy those upthread who earn faster than they can use. I think the best deal without a doubt is night & flights, and I'd encourage taking advantage of that program as opposed to other uses.
Meanwhile I only have 3 paid night stays, lifetime.
I envy those upthread who earn faster than they can use. I think the best deal without a doubt is night & flights, and I'd encourage taking advantage of that program as opposed to other uses.
Dec 5, 2017, 6:46 am
#27
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: SJC/SFO
Programs: WN A+ CP, UA 1MM/*A Gold, Mar LT Tit, IHG Plat, HH Dia
Posts: 6,285
Dec 5, 2017, 8:07 am
#28
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Not sure yet
Programs: Marriott - Lifetime Platinum Premier, AA - CK
Posts: 263
I'm sitting at about 800k right now with 2.8M earned total. I'm not really saving them, we have just decided to use the RV more for vacations.
Im also sitting with 1M AA miles in my account. I would like to use them, but get frustrated every time I try and just say screw it!
Obviously I need to read up on the travel packages, as I'm not familiar with them. I have always simply earned what I earned while traveling for work, and up until this year burned them at Beach locations on the east coast. I did use some in Costa Rica and Hawaii a few years back.
Im also sitting with 1M AA miles in my account. I would like to use them, but get frustrated every time I try and just say screw it!
Obviously I need to read up on the travel packages, as I'm not familiar with them. I have always simply earned what I earned while traveling for work, and up until this year burned them at Beach locations on the east coast. I did use some in Costa Rica and Hawaii a few years back.