A slightly more complicated "points or pay" question
 

This year we decided too late to go to San Diego for July 4th (when we looked hotels were in the $400-500 range), so we've planned a trip for next year. I know hotels are ridiculously overpriced for prime times, and I accept that, knowing I'll monitor for any drops, but right now my question is a math one that is beyond my limited "ok the rate is this much, and points would be this much".

To PAY for the bay view balcony room, and get included valet parking, is right now $359 for one night, $341 for the next. Also earns points.

To use POINTS for the room is 35,000 per night, Plus $75 cash upgrade p/n for a bay view balcony room, plus paying for valet parking at $45 per night. Will I earn points on those incremental charges?

We don't have zillions of points to burn, are just looking for the "best value".

This is for the Marriott Marquis Marina.

If you have to stay at a Marriot and don't have a huge stash of points, I'd pay. You might also look into a LNF.

As an alternative, the four-star Westgate Hotel in the Marina district is only $212 plus fees on Hotwire for 7/3-5.

I'm not that familiar with San Diego, but I looked up that hotel on a map, and it does not seem to have the bay view, over-the-water balcony overlooking the fireworks that we would have at the Marriott.

If the valet parking is outsourced, you won't receive points (or at least you're not supposed to).

I'd give the hotel a call and ask whether they operate the parking or whether a vendor does.

For $300 less, no balcony, but some "rooms offer panoramic views of San Diego’s sparkling bay."

If you are looking for value, check out Pier South Resort. You'll get a guaranteed suite, most likely with an ocean view. And the staff are great, along with the sunsets.

It's not in a ritzy area like some of the other Marriott properties in San Diego, but I'm looking forward to returning later this year.

I think I wasn't clear about the "best value" part of my question - I didn't mean what would be the most inexpensive hotel in San Diego (Marriott or otherwise) for those dates, but rather of my two payment options which would be the best value at the MMM.

I think I'm going to go with the pay option - as I said, don't have tons of points, and I believe since it's a package (sort of, AAA) that includes the parking I'd most likely get points on the whole thing, even if they do farm out the valet operation.

That Pier South hotel does look very nice, but since we're coming specifically for the fireworks it really is not in the right location, but thanks for the suggestion.

Is $359 before or after tax?

If it's all in, then I'd agree to do a paid stay, but if not, you are talking about $400 for 35k points which IMO is a good use of your MR points.

The $359 and $341 are both before taxes.

I'm a newbie at these calculations, and I'm sorry to admit but your sentence confused me. :(

It sounds like since those prices were before taxes I should NOT pay, but rather use the points with the upcharges?

I live in Europe so I am used to price that I am paying at the end of the day rather than the pre-tax price. Personally I like this because I know exactly how much I am paying.

From my own experience staying in US hotels, you need to add in around 15-25% tax on top of what you pay. So $359 can easily turn into $400 out of your pocket, plus you don't get points for the taxes you pay.

However you get points for the upgrade since they can't outsource that. Not sure the $75 is taxable - other FTers please advise.

My rule of thumb is $100/10k point, so for $359, I will use the points because you are almost $400 out of your pocket.

I wouldn't try to save up the points because:
1. They do devaluate over time;
2. If you use your money to put into saving account or invest it, you will end up getting interest/earning.

To PAY for the bay view balcony room, and get included valet parking, is right now $359 for one night, $341 for the next. Also earns points.

To use POINTS for the room is 35,000 per night, Plus $75 cash upgrade p/n for a bay view balcony room, plus paying for valet parking at $45 per night. Will I earn points on those incremental charges?

I think you have made it complicated by factoring in the parking so I'll try to simplify.

Pay = $350 average.
Points = 35k points + $120 cash

I might suggest this creates a $230 cash difference. Using 35k points (if valued at about 1 cents per point) makes this a bad use of points in my opinion. If you value them at half a cent per point value then it's a good use. I have found getting 1 cent in value is generally easy to do so I would not use your points here.

Thanks both of you, I think I'll wait and see if (hopefully) those rates come down, will make the decision easier. It seems to be one of those borderline cases.

I would book revenue and points so that you can decide later. Ask Marriott Rewards not to take the points out if your account yet. They will reserve until later. Keep watching the rates as they will likely fluctuate over these next few months. Every February Marriott reassesses points requirements for hotels and the SD Marriott may move up or down. At least you will have this already booked.

Good suggestion - even if MR does take the points away. It's a very little price to pay to hold a room.

I have done that before - found cheaper rate and decided to do paid stay instead of point stay.

Yes, I am currently holding both options.