Just because I feel that also doesn't mean it's not true. Kind of a moot point you're making.

I guesstimate value has roughly halved since Marriott started introducing dynamic pricing. I rarely redeemed at less than 2c back then. We had roughly 70% inflation since then.

As I'm sure youre aware there has been a shift to using loyalty programs more as marketing tools than loyalty programs per se. If Marriott can capture wallet share from a high spending market segment and keep them engaged for little cost, they are delivering value to the shareholders. I don't think many would argue it's not in their best interest.

Generally speaking I am going to take actual data points over vibes-based guesstimates.

Not to mention that Marriott's customers are not only the people invested in their cards but their licensees who own the hotels Marriott customers stay at.

I'm not sure what is "moot" about my point.
But to clarify, my response was to your assertion that there "clearly is points inflation outpacing cash rate inflation." That is not "clear," even if you get the sense based on your own anecdotal experiences.

How did you calculate your conclusion that there has been "roughly 70% inflation" in award pricing since 2022?

In case, for some reason, my data about London based on FT was inaccurate, I went through my own files and picked six Marriott reservations made before the switch to dynamic award pricing at random and compared the prices I paid with prices for the same date in 2024 or 2025

Points bookings:
Lisbon Marriott- June 2022: 45,000 June 2025: 46,000
Menmo Principe Real- June 2022: 45,000 June 2025: 46,000
W Algarve - June 2022: 60,000 June 2025: 68,000
Westin Melbourne- December 2022: 40,000 December 2024: 34,000

Cash bookings:
Sheraton Vancouver AIrport - December 2022: 246 CAD member best flexible rate December 2024: 273 CAD member best flexible rate
Hotel Trio, Healdsburg - October 2022- cash rate 323.31 (prepaid, tax inclusive) October 2024- cash rate 448 (prepaid, tax inclusive)


This data, along with the London data does call into question whether it is "clear" that points prices are raising faster than cash prices.

So that would mean that point redemption prices have roughly doubled since then, yes? Not in Bangkok.

I have two upcoming redemptions in Bangkok at very good value - 22k at LM Suvarnabhum and 51k per night at the new RC.
It seems you are confusing SPG points with Marriott points. SPG were properly valued around 2 cpp, which is why they converted to Marriott at 1:3. Note that this was fully consistent with a valuation of Marriott at just under .7 cpp, which is where they have been consistently pegged for the past six years or so.

I think the main (valid) gripe point is that this has made the CC night certs somewhat less useful. Being able to top them up by 15k helps a lot, but there's still some loss of utility as some properties slide out of even that range.

That's a red herring. Nobody was discussing what's in the best interest of Marriott corporate. We were discussing a customer's subjective points valuation over time. [Value is always subjective but just to be clear as most bloggers and many FT'ers do not know that.]

I just checked rates again for the Marriott Grosvenor House in early May.

Two nights in a King room is listed as 188,000 points/stay. Cash price was £608/night. Points plus cash was £585 +95,000 points.

The points are worthless! 95,000 points are worth £46!

Interesting take...doesn't that example also suggest that 188,000 points is worth 608 pounds?

Your post is unclear. You say £608 per night, 2 nights is thus £1216 for 188,000 points, or about 154.6 points per pound.

If points plus cash is £585 plus 95,000 points for BOTH nights, you’re saving £631 off the two night cash rate for 95,000 points, or about 150.55 points per pound, almost the same rate. No clue how you think 95,000 points is only £46 in that case. Am I missing something? Did you mean £585 PER NIGHT plus 95,000 points? Because I agree that would be pretty worthless.

Per my prior post, for May 5-7 I see a king superior room for £608 average per night, or £585 plus 86,000 points PER STAY.

i absolutely reserve my right to complain about being Bonvoyed, but I try to do it for the right reasons.

Marriott has somewhere between frequently and always had nonsensical points + cash rates. This is not new example of the sky falling.