Cash prices are up, occupancy rates are at historic highs, especially in major cities, so stands to reason that redemption cost would be up as well...it truly is a supply and demand business. If occupancy rates go down, cash prices will go down and there will be more slack in the system which will allow for more, and more reasonable, redemptions. This is especially impacted by the 'no black-out dates' policies...which mean that there are almost always rooms available for you to redeem into, you just might not like the prices!!!

There are also pretty significant swings in the award prices these days. I signed up for the 5x50k CC bonus and utilized all the certs in Switzerland this summer, getting around $2500 value. But it wasn't a sure thing and I had to wait for points prices to drop before I could use them. I also re-checked every booking every few days for price drops, and was able to claw back about 20K points. A snapshot on any one day would have yielded far less value.

I think what they are doing these days is curve balancing their room availability. When they have more availability than is ideal a certain number of days before, they drop the award prices. If they are above the curve because of an event or just a busy period, award prices stay high.

The cash prices have also skyrocketed. They arent going to keep points the same when cash increases

This right here is a strategy I use on every single points redemption I make anymore. Over the Christmas/NYE holiday my wife and I spent a month in Thailand, staying exclusively at Marriott properties. Of the three properties where I chose to use points I was able to lower the initial number of points for all three five-night stays by nearly 60,000 points. I would simply check each day and grab the better redemption if it appeared. A lot of it was reclaimed 1,000 - 2,000 points at a time, but it all added up.

Here are the three properties names, initial points outlay for a five-night stay, what my final points outlay was and finally the savings in points. It being the holidays the cash prices were quite a bit higher than "normal", so even at the initial booking of each hotel I was getting around 1 cpp return, and it only got better from there.

Marriott Chiang Mai 167,000 - 146,000 = 21,000
Sheraton Grande Sukhumvit 168,000 - 148,000 = 20,000
Renaissance Koh Samui Resort & Spa 168,000 - 149,600 = 18,400

Total Savings = 59,400 ($498.96 @ .0084 per point)

Did it take a bit of extra effort, sure, but with how easy Marriott makes it to "change" rooms to claim a better price/redemption, I never had to spend more than three minutes each day on the task.

I was just reflecting this morning on Bonvoy, the great redemption values I've been getting lately, and how dynamic pricing has not been the gutting of the program that many of us expected.

All my redemptions recently have been over 1 cpp and quite a few have been in the 1.5 to 2 cpp range. Considering that the generally accepted valuation has hovered around .7 cpp since the SPG acquisition, I consider that pretty decent.

I would love to see some of the bloggers with spare time and the need to generate content to generate CC referrals, would be to look at point values domestically vs internationally. I'll echo that finding good valuations for my (few and far between) INTL stays have proven easier.

My personal stays tends to be at limited service properties in "summer towns" during the off season. It's infuriating when trying to redeem because the points floors seem to be based on summer peak rates (say 30-40k/n) when winter cash rates are $120-150.

If it says anything about my stays, I hit Titanium this year on $6900 spend over 34 paid nights.

Since even before SPG.

The problem was that the original premise used London as its base. Rates for points (or cash) there are hardly the barometer of the program as a whole - not even the rest of the UK or Europe for that matter. I'm holding a series of points reservations in both places that I'm very pleased with. The unrealistic points rates I've come across are mostly on this side of the ocean at low to mid-level properties.

TBH, I've rarely seen good redemptions in London over the past year or two (even with inflated cash rates and GBP exchange rates). That doesn't mean they never happen, but it's not like London has a lot of "aspirational" properties anyway as they all have their issues.

I'm in a Junior Suite at Town Hall at about a US penny a point (40k) later this month. No Platinum breakfast benefit since it's a Design Hotel, but I'm not paying 15-20k MR a night for a free breakfast at someplace like Park Tower Knightsbridge (which is also a decent cpp redemption). Close to some great bars, the hotel actually has a Michelin-starred restaurant, and I prefer the East End anyway. So very happy with that London redemption (returning guest, their base room I've stayed in before is pretty comfortable, but I'll be in a room somewhat above that).

Anyway, yes, dynamic pricing means points cost goes up some with cash cost. I would say that a lot of the upper tier London hotels like Edition, County Hall and W are now out of reach for the Brilliant/Ritz 85k cert, even with a 15k points boost.

OP here. I am sure that there may still be some good redemptions someplace. But, I have tended to do this in London. So, in the example that I gave in March, 2025, rooms are averaging 85-1000,000/ night. My comparison is other redemptions that Ihave done at half that, same time of year, same hotels.

I just looked at several random dates in March and that's not the average price, and many properties are in the 40-60k range. The W is regularly 80k a night, the St. Ermin's is regularly 77,500k, the Sheraton Park Lane and Bankside are regularly 75k, the St. Pancras is 65k.... Residence Inns, several Marriotts, and Design properties are in the 40-55k range.

Are you talking about the Edition? Because that was not available for 50k last year. And the Residence Inn Tower Bridge was not 25k last year.
Perhaps you are looking for 2 night stays and mistaking the rate for both nights as a single night?

Some data points of rates cited in the master London thread :
2019: Residence Inn Kensington - 40k
2020: Bankside 40k
2021: JW Grosvenor House or St Pancras Renaissance 50k, Edition 70k, Marriott Canary Wharf 35k
2022: Montcalm East - 50k; Marriott Park Lane 100k, Sheraton Park Lane 75k
2023: Sheraton Park Lane -57K ; JW Grosvenor House 65K ;

Rates for March 14, 2025:
Sheraton Park Lane - 77k (2k/2.5% higher than 2022 report; 20k/35% higher than 2023 report;
Bankside- 74k (34k/68% higher than 2020 report)
JW Marriott Grosvenor House - 83k (33k/66% higher than 2021 report)
Marriott Park Lane - 88k (12k/12% <lower> than 2022 report)
St Pancras Renaissance - 64k (14k/28% higher than 2021 report)
Montcalm East - 57k (7k/14% higher than 2022 report)
RI Kensington -47k (7k/17.5% higher than 2019 report)

None of these properties has doubled in price since 2023....or even since 2021 (i.e., when borders were closed)

Be that as it may, but there clearly is points inflation outpacing cash rate inflation.

Marriott is creating huge points liabilities through their own CC's, other credit card and airline miles conversion bonuses etc. The frequent traveller is losing out versus the high CC spender. As always, airlines are further along in this process than hotel chain and other loyalty programs.

Now don't give me the usual "take your money elsewhere" crap. Yeah, I am acting as a free agent whenever I can. Programs are becoming less rewarding (again, airlines are leading the way and other loyalty is taking cues from it).
But there is considerable market concentration, it's not a highly competitive market where I can easily avoid all things Marriott (or Hilton).

Just because you feel that doesn't mean it's true.

With respect specifically to Marriott points, I do not find that to be the case.

These "Marriott points are worthless" threads crop up regularly, typically sparked by a single instance of frustration that there are no points bargains at a particular destination on a particular date. As can be seen by the many contrary responses, that's really not true as a general proposition. There are still many excellent uses for Marriott points, which have overall held their value relative to cash prices. It's actually a bit surprising to me that the value's still there, as there are plenty of instances of traveler loyalty programs where points have been materially devalued (e.g., UA, BA).