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Old Mar 24, 2015, 6:09 am
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============================================

Germanwings Flight 4U 9525 (Barcelona - Dusseldorf) crashed on 24 March 2015, coming down in the Alps near Barcelonette France
Aircraft involved is Airbus A320 reg D-AIPX. It was delivered to Lufthansa in 1991 and passed to Germanwings in 2001. It received routine maintenance at DUS the day before the crash (performed by Lufthansa Technik) and had its last major overhaul ( C-Check) in the summer of 2013. Lufthansa have said the plane was in 'perfect' condition.

Circumstances
It is very likely that the aircraft was deliberately crashed by the co-pilot Andreas Lubwitz

As per Germanwings press conference held 1400 on 24th March:
The aircraft flew from DUS to BCN on the morning of the crash
The flight left BCN at 1001 local time, it reached crusing altitude of 38000 at 1045 but remained there for only one minute before beginning a descent which lasted 8 minutes and ended in the crash.
ATC permission was not asked for the descent and it is unclear whether or not the crew were in ATC contact and under what circumstances an emergency was declared.

Subsequent reports suggest there was no communication between the crew and ATC after the aircraft began to descend.

The weather was good at the time of the crash:
Surface weather near where they started the descent:

METAR LFTH 240800Z AUTO 07012KT 9999 NSC 15/08 Q1008
METAR LFTH 240830Z AUTO 07012KT 9999 NSC 15/09 Q1008
METAR LFTH 240900Z AUTO 08016KT 9999 FEW035 SCT130 15/08 Q1008

That's basically unrestricted visibility at the surface.

Posted by Captainmiles Post #156 in this thread

US govt sources say no evidence of terrorism (reported on sky news uk)


Germanwings/Lufthansa official response

Germanwings press conference announced for 1500 local time, to be held in Cologne

Press conference reports: Lufthansa group employees enroute to crash site, families of victims being informed, crisis center set up at DUS airport

New flight number have been announced
4U9440 DUS0645 – 0855BCN EQV
4U9441 BCN0935 – 1155DUS EQV

Relatives of victims have been transported to the crash area by Lufthansa

Lufthansa press conference held at 1330 GMT on 26 March stated that the plane was most likely brought down deliberately by the co-pilot.

Video recording of the press conference (26 March):
In German
In English (simultaneous translation)

Victims

Latest reports are 144 passengers and 6 crew aboard, Spanish government report 45 Spanish nationals, French government reports 0 French nationals, German government reports there are some German victims but numbers not known (German wings press conference reports 67), Sky News UK reports Turkish nationals on board. There were 2 babies, one of the belonging to a woman from Manchester and the other is German, the child of opera singer Maria Radner who was travelling on the flight with her husband.

Two of the victims were Australians - a mother and her adult son from Victoria.
Two victims from Argentina
Three from Great Britain
One Israeli
Two Colombians
One Belgian
One Dutch
Two Iranians
Three Americans
Two Japanese
Three Mexicans

The German victims include 16 pupils and 2 teachers from Joseph Koenig Gymnasium (high school) at Haltern Am See, they were returning from an exchange visit to Spain.

Crew comprised 4 cabin crew and 2 flight deck. The captain had been with Lufthansa group for 10 years and had over 6000 hours on this plane type.
The co-pilot is widely reported to have joined Germanwings straight out of training in 2013 and to have had 630 hours of experience.

French rescue services believe there are no survivors.

Emergency contact numbers
From Germany 0800 1133 5577
From Spain 902 400 012
0049 30 5000 3000

The names of the victims will be published once their families have been informed.

Crash site

The crash site has been identified by helicopters, it is not accessible by road and is around 2 and a half hours walk from the nearest road (reported Sky News UK). It is at an altitude of around 2000m. Search and rescue teams are en-route. There may be an avalanche risk which could hamper rescue efforts. Rescuers are assembling at Seyne-Les-Alpes.

Sky news UK are reporting that a helicopter has landed near the crash site. They have confirmed no survivors and have reported the largest piece of debris to be about car sized. The debris field is about 200 square meters in size. See also http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/24557269-post183.html



Investigation - confirmed information
Large numbers of French investigators are on site, efforts have been made to secure the site against outside interference.
The cockpit voice recorder (CVR) has been recovered and taken for investigation at French BEA. It is damaged but functional. Voices can be heard on the recording but it is unclear if they are those of the flight crew.
BEA is working in cooperation with German BFU (Bundesstelle für Flugunfalluntersuchung), Airbus and CFM.
The aircraft was complete until impact - there was no midair breakup

"Germanwings Pilot Was Locked Out of Cockpit Before Crash in France"
New York Times reports that one of the two pilots was locked out of the cockpit during the descent: “You can hear he is trying to smash the door down.” http://nyti.ms/1HC7g9i

French prosecuters believe that the crash was caused by the deliberate actions of the co-pilot, he is thought to have locked the captain out of the cockpit and then to have deliberately crashed the aircraft.

Video of cockpit operation and manual override switch to block door from being opened externally. From The Guardian.

A locked door is opened by a flight crew inside the cockpit but can also be unlocked by cabin crew entering a keycode from the outside. Crew inside the cockpit can manually override it to keep a door locked for up to five minutes.
Investigation - confirmed information

On 6 May 2015, the BEA released its preliminary report.

Reliable Sources

AV Herald page on the crash.
FlightRadar24 flight path map
flightware tracking log
BBC News "What we know so far"
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Germanwings / 4U 9525 A320 Alpine plane crash 24 Mar 2015

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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:16 pm
  #796  
 
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Originally Posted by Doc Savage
Yep. Which is why I find it unfortunate that the French investigators are putting their theory out there as essentially completely confirmed fact so very early in the investigation. Seems like they are really jumping the gun without dotting their i's and crossing their t's.
You can argue that people are jumping the gun but frankly it's currently a practical application of Occam's Razor.

On one hand, you can assert that the co-pilot (1) deliberately changed the autopilot, (2) locked out the captain, and (3) kept a steady breathing pattern since it was a deliberate action.

or

you can assert that the co-pilot with steady breathing was somehow ill/incapacitated at the very moment that the captain stepped out. The autopilot changed itself at the very moment that the captain stepped out and that the captain inputted the code incorrectly so he couldn't get into the cockpit.

And sure you can come up with different conclusions, like the Egyptians did in Flight 990.
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:21 pm
  #797  
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.... or you can assert nothing about what may (or may not) have happened, and wait for the governmental aviation crash experts' official reports to be compiled and made available. Being patient isn't always easy for everyone.
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:27 pm
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Such a senseless tragedy. My heart goes out to the victims. RIP.
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:49 pm
  #799  
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Well, no one in any official capacity or no one publicly seems to be disputing the premeditative act narrative, or even suggesting the possibility of the medical emergency narrative. Not even the LH CEO. According to his CNN interview, the interviewer said that the LH CEO said that "the airline is absolutely certain that there was criminal intent behind all this, and all this was done deliberately..." at 1.17

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/...nwings-ceo.cnn
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:50 pm
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
.... or you can assert nothing about what may (or may not) have happened, and wait for the governmental aviation crash experts' official reports to be compiled and made available. Being patient isn't always easy for everyone.
+1

I think what people are forgetting is that this information has been released by a French Prosecutor, not an accident investigator. Identifying voices and sounds on a CVR is an exercise in extreme patience and talent. It's why the AAIB only hires people as Flight Recorder Inspectors who have years of experience. I imagine it's the same all over the world
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 10:55 pm
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Originally Posted by GUWonder
.... or you can assert nothing about what may (or may not) have happened, and wait for the governmental aviation crash experts' official reports to be compiled and made available. Being patient isn't always easy for everyone.

Their report doesn't matter much anymore...this is primarily a criminal investigation now, and the prosecutor's office will take the lead on Issuing public statements going forward.

And that's not unique to France...in the USA, the NTSB falls back to an advisory role with FBI taking the lead on a crash investigation if evidence of a crime becomes apparent.
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 11:02 pm
  #802  
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Originally Posted by windchaser777
+1

I think what people are forgetting is that this information has been released by a French Prosecutor, not an accident investigator. Identifying voices and sounds on a CVR is an exercise in extreme patience and talent. It's why the AAIB only hires people as Flight Recorder Inspectors who have years of experience. I imagine it's the same all over the world
Do we know how the French prosecutor came up with the story? Presumably he consulted the investigators, and got some firm information and conclusions from them (albeit without the FDR data)?
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 11:07 pm
  #803  
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Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
Their report doesn't matter much anymore...this is primarily a criminal investigation now, and the prosecutor's office will take the lead on Issuing public statements going forward.

And that's not unique to France...in the USA, the NTSB falls back to an advisory role with FBI taking the lead on a crash investigation if evidence of a crime becomes apparent.
Exactly air crashes like PSA flight 1771, FedEx flight 705, the 9/11 attacks, Pacific Air Lines flight 773, joint ones like Pan Am 103 etc all fell under FBI jurisdiction. I am quite sure the French/German/Spanish equivalent (assuming this doesn't become a political war) will take over this case from the crash investigators, UNLESS substantial evidence proving otherwise is found, which at this point seems unlikely but not impossible. I doubt the French prosecutor would release this information without at least consulting with crash investigators.
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Old Mar 26, 2015, 11:08 pm
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Here's timeline info:

http://news.yahoo.com/minute-minute-...201006515.html

Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
Their report doesn't matter much anymore...this is primarily a criminal investigation now, and the prosecutor's office will take the lead on Issuing public statements going forward.

And that's not unique to France...in the USA, the NTSB falls back to an advisory role with FBI taking the lead on a crash investigation if evidence of a crime becomes apparent.
So "their report doesn't matter much anymore", but the governmental aviation authorities are going to spend how many millions more investigating the matter and engaging in the search for more than human remains?

About NTSB and FBI, http://www.planesafe.org/planesafe_a...NTSBFBIMOU.pdf

Last edited by GUWonder; Mar 27, 2015 at 12:36 am
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Old Mar 27, 2015, 12:17 am
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Originally Posted by nerdbirdsjc
Their report doesn't matter much anymore...this is primarily a criminal investigation now, and the prosecutor's office will take the lead on Issuing public statements going forward.

And that's not unique to France...in the USA, the NTSB falls back to an advisory role with FBI taking the lead on a crash investigation if evidence of a crime becomes apparent.
That's not how France does things.
It is not a criminal investigation now. It was the moment it happened. France does not run investigations like the US does. Any accident is treated as a criminal investigation first, not if evidence to suggest that is located as the NTSB does. France looks for someone to blame and prosecute in these events, it doesn't care about what happened or how to prevent it from happening again.
Even if weather took down the aircraft, France will still look for someone to prosecute.
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Old Mar 27, 2015, 12:32 am
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Originally Posted by nk15
Well, no one in any official capacity or no one publicly seems to be disputing the premeditative act narrative, or even suggesting the possibility of the medical emergency narrative. Not even the LH CEO. According to his CNN interview, the interviewer said that the LH CEO said that "the airline is absolutely certain that there was criminal intent behind all this, and all this was done deliberately..." at 1.17

http://edition.cnn.com/videos/world/...nwings-ceo.cnn
Well on the interview I saw he said " this is the information we have from French authorities at this point ".
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Old Mar 27, 2015, 12:42 am
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The behaviour of the French investigators is really strange.
Normally it takes weeks/months before the CVR are read-out, or at least the content is spread out to media.
In this case it took only one day, more or less, it makes no sense, really.
Data from CVR must be matched with data from FDR.
BEA and BFU have not said anything yet, why shall a person "not knowing A/C" speak about what happened?
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Old Mar 27, 2015, 12:44 am
  #808  
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Originally Posted by Himeno
That's not how France does things.
It is not a criminal investigation now. It was the moment it happened. France does not run investigations like the US does. Any accident is treated as a criminal investigation first, not if evidence to suggest that is located as the NTSB does.
Exactly.

The French prosecutor oversees all aspects of the investigation and the BEA, in charge of the technical investigation, must report all facts, such as the content of the CVR, in a timely fashion, to his office.
France looks for someone to blame and prosecute in these events, it doesn't care about what happened or how to preven it from happening again.
It is the BEA's role to make findings to prevent it from happening again, not the prosecutor's: his role in this preliminary phase is to lead all aspects of the investigation before turning it over to an investigating judge (juge d'instruction). The police and gendarmerie investigators report to him, not to any Minister (Interior, Transportation, Defense).
Even if weather took down the aircraft, France will still look for someone to prosecute.
Not exactly, a prosecutor's investigation can lead directly to a "classement sans suite" or to a "non-lieu" decision by the investigating judge, regarding the criminal aspects of the case.

Last edited by JOUY31; Mar 27, 2015 at 1:44 am
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Old Mar 27, 2015, 12:45 am
  #809  
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Germanwings / 4U 9525 A320 Alpine plane crash 24 Mar 2015

Co-pilots' house has been searched.

Quote from BBC:

"We have found something which will now be taken for tests. We cannot say what it is at the moment but it may be a very significant clue to what has happened," the Daily Mail quoted police spokesman Markus Niesczery as saying.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32081681
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Old Mar 27, 2015, 1:40 am
  #810  
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Germanwings / 4U 9525 A320 Alpine plane crash 24 Mar 2015

News report:

Co-pilot supposedly suffered from depression since 2009.

Pilot tried to knock down door with an axe.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/mobile/latestnews/germanwings-co-pilot/1746290.html
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