Well, yes, on a given hand, evening and maybe even a whole year. Give the house enough time, however...(exception: counting at blackjack).

And skilled play in the Poker room. And optimal play at 100%+ Video Poker.

But they're not likely in the long run...something usually seems to get in the way, which is why we continue to have multi billion dollar hotels built to allow people to play these games.

I still believe in going to have fun, and while optimizing the house advantage, playing for the short-term swings rather than long-term rates. I'm not planning on staying long enough for the long-term trends to kick into play (thousands upon thousands of independent trials).

I have fun winning.

QL

I highly recommend the book "Flaws and Fallacies of Statistical Thinking" by Stephen Campbell for anyone who believes in betting systems (not card counting). It was required reading for a college statistics class, and a very useful book.

Another good one is "The Man with $100,000 Breasts" (Michael Konik).

Finally check out www.wizardofodds.com - run by a guy with a PHD in stats, profiles all of the casino games.

That's really tough, though. The rake in ring games and the entry fee in tournaments take a hefty bite out of the kitty. You'd have to be very skillful just to break even with those headwinds.

I love poker tourneys, and I've done quite well in them. Going back several years, I am actually slightly ahead (barely so, but ahead). I consider that a large achievement, since I got all of that fun poker for free.

While I agree that you have to be skillful to win at poker, I don't think that the headwinds are very hard to overcome. I usually play 3/6 limit or 1/2 NL when I'm out there, and tend to do very well. There are many MANY people playing poker that are only doing so because they saw it on TV and thought it looks fun. so, they say "I will spend $x00 on the entertainment of playing." I am more than happy to collect on the money they are "willing" to lose. I am certainly no poker pro (as evidenced by the low limits I play), but I typically make enough money playing poker to pay for my other vacation indulgences.

What do you think the rake is in a 3/6 game as an average percentage of money bet? I think at a club near me, the rake is $2 per hand for 3/6. A typical hand might have four players seeing the flop ($12), one bet with two calls ($9), maybe two bets at turn and river with two players ($12+$12). So, 2/45 is a 4.44% rake.

Do you think that might be roughly the average rake in 3/6, or would you alter the numbers?

A $2 Rake at 3/6 seems pretty low ... DenverBrian has listed the rakes for Wynn/Bellagio here:

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/showt...1&page=2&pp=15

About the worst I've experienced is a $5 rake at the Cherokee in Tulsa, which included $1 for a Bad Beat jackpot (and I think they maxed that at a very low $1000 ... have seen it as high as $60K in Detroit.)

Looks like allvegaspoker.com has more info

I must be wrong about the rake locally. I rarely play ring games.

It looks like a rake of 10% down to 5% is the typical range for 4/8 games. I'd call that a pretty stiff headwind. I'm impressed with anyone who can, over time, make significant money in such games. I guess it all depends on how many lousy players show up.

10% seems very high. I would say your first example seemed reasonable, so 5% is probably about right. but, on top of that, you have to factor in a buck or two to tip the dealer.

In retrospect the table could have been "hot" or "cold." And if you were there playing with an appropriate strategy you could have made money off of it.

In the present tense there's no such thing as hot and cold, only in the past.

Rake is usually about 4-5% of the pot over time. That's easily overcome in low-limit games by the average number of players, 4-6 in most pots, 2-3 besides you at the river in many cases, meaning that if you know how to win, you're collecting 3:1 or 4:1, minus 5%, on your money.

You must also be disciplined on tipping the dealer. I see players routinely pay the dealer $2 or $3 for every hand they make - even on $20 or lighter pots. That's a good way not to win. I'm so stingy I used to tip in halves on small pots until they got rid of them at Bellagio. :D :D :D

Somewhat Back on Topic.

From my previous play over labor day, as detailed in previous replies, I just got a targeted letter for 3 comp nights at the Venetian, December 9 through 11, for a holiday splendor promotion. If I play at least 6 hours between 12-9 3 pm until 12-11 6am at my historic rate ($75), they will give me a $1250 gift certificate to my choice of either Macy's, Niemans, or Saks. They give you the certificate at a pre shopping spree breakfast on the 11th. Pretty good deal since I would easily play 6 hours and I bet the amount increases or decreases according to your historical average.

They are billing it as take your wife to vegas to go Christmas shopping while the hubby gambles promotion. Clever and ironic in that a few weeks ago my host called me to ask when I was coming back and to thank me for my recent stay. I said I need to come back during the holidays with my wife. Coincidence, may be, good marketing, absolutely.

Got to give an A for creativity to casino marketing on this one, imagine spouses everywhere encouraging their husbands to gamble more and longer, so that they can have more purchasing power at 3 high end stores.

Personally, if I did it, I would picky Macy's because $1250 at Niemans or Saks does not buy a lot of stuff. My wife just got a gift certificate to Niemans from my parents for $600, she was only able to buy a cheap looking purse and a blue jean skirt. Recently I was in Niemans killing time, I choose three ties, never looked at the price, and was surprised to see the bill at a little over $600. I was expecting maybe $80 per tie, not $200. Lesson learned.

Seems to be a decent deal and on a weekend too ^

that does sound like a great deal, but i'm confused. assuming you play blackjack and you see 2 hands per minute for 6 hours = 720 hands * $75/hand = $54,000 "coin-in." Doesn't perfect strategy in blackjack give the house less than a 1% advantage? So, assuming you have some idea of what you're doing the house can't have much more than that. 1% of $54,000 is only $540. If they are giving you a $1250 gift card, then either my hands/hour calc is way off or my house advantage figure is. Plus I'm not even taking into consideration the three free nights they are comping, as they would probably not be sold out and the marginal cost isn't that great to them. what am i missing?