Destination Discussion
 

I'm hoping this thread turns into a greater discussion of JetBlue destinations and overall network strategy (or the lack thereof).

Posting about ANC recently got me thinking. I was just looking at the list of destinations, and once MEX and Cuba (excluding HAV) are gone, come April they will only serve 101 cities. I don't honestly expect PTP to last long, considering it isn't served from anywhere in the continental US (they do have turboprop service to SJU). If any other cities close, it would take them under 100 destinations. That would be pretty embarrassing. For the majority of January 2020 they will actually be at 99.

-J.

I think their lack of new cities lately is tied to lack of aircraft. Once the NEO's start coming more frequently and the A220's ramp up we will definitely see some growth.

I love the BNA-FLL route. Its my favorite way to get to South Florida from Nashville. Its a comfortable plane and a great alternative to Southwest's non stop or AA to MIA.

I fly the BNA-BOS route regularly and it is usually competitive with Southwest and Delta on that route.

I would love to see a BNA-JFK route. I would love to see Jet Blue expand in Nashville, but I am not sure that is a big part of their strategy.

2021 is the big year. That's when Europe happens.

Selfishly, I want to see them start feeder service out of Manchester NH. I live close to that airport but have to go to Boston to fly my favorite airline. Along those same lines, I'd like to see some kind of service to Indianapolis since my mom lives there and it would be nice to not have to either drive 1100 miles or fly an awful airline's commuter service. I don't expect to see the latter.

Selfishly, I’d love to see FDF instead of PTP (husband is French and has distant relatives in Martinique - we loved the Norwegian flights for the few years they ran). Would also love to see NYC-MSP even though that won’t help with the destination count since they fly it out of BOS already.

I don't find sub-100 destinations to be a real negative because it'll only be for about 18 month. As mentioned, Europe is the big jump. Very excited to burn my miles for some narrowbody flights to LGW and ORY

It will be interesting to see how they expand into Europe for sure. I have my own conspiracy theories about it (which shockingly have so far been completely accurate). There are a number of glaring holes in the domestic network that could be an easy fix (more service from MSP and BNA, as examples) once the A220s start coming in.

-J.

I think ptp will stick around for a while because they are pretty desperate to have the JFK flight after Norwegian quit on that route. I would not be shocked if JetBlue got subsidies here. It would not be surprising for me if now gets added later on a seasonal Saturday only kind of flight. It was announced kind of late, so I figured a lot of it came together in the last minute. We will probably see a longer season next year. They have plenty of open slots at JFK in the winter season. The threshold to keeping this route around is not super high.

As for flights like JFK bna or msp, they could all work, but JFK slots are quite tight in the peak summer season. These would require year round slots at a time when they need to find slots for tatl flights. Unless they get more slots or JFK loses slot constraints, I don't see them adding more within perimeter routes out of JFK. Flights to pwm and btv are obvious cuts if they need to find some for European flights.
After most recent schedule extension, Boston will be up close to 15% more flights and probably 25% asm next summer over this summer. Huge growth. JFK will have even more flights than last summer even with slot tightness. And they are adding more flights to Newark and White plains. I would love to see more growth at new York. But given their slot constraints, they are already growing a lot by switching short range e90 flights for long range a321 flights. And that's before all the a220 and a321lr join fleet. That will probably usher in more possibilities.


For the past 2 years, they have been trying to control costs and steady the ship. Now they have done that and a220 is going to arrive late next year. After that, there will be a lot more places they can add.

Aside from Europe, I would think a220 allows for sna and eyw to be added. I would love to see some skiing flights out of JFK in the winter or JFK bzn in summer time. And I am sure there will be more Latin American destination opened up by a321neo from JFK. The only limit is the lack of slots. Maybe aa will be willing to sell.

Please be BOS-BSL by operated A321LR aircraft. I would considered to fly nonstop flight from PHX-LAS/LGB/MCO/TPA.

I really hope to expanded PHX in a few years. All I can see second daily PHX-FLL during daytime flight. I hear PHX-FLL is doing pretty good. We have more room at PHX T3S concourse. Can they becomes PHX focus city? Can they add more nonstop flight from PHX-HNL/SNA/SAN/LAX, PHX-BZN/BOI/SEA/BUR/ONT/SJC and a few other specific routes, as well.

PHX will never become a focus city because of intense competition by AA and WN. A second frequency on any of the existing routes would require a second shift for the airport workers. SLC got a second JFK because they have LGB flights coming in since the morning (they have three daily shifts). I highly doubt PHX will get it; that said, BUR did (but BUR-BOS is a daytime flight).

I don't think BSL is on Jetblue's radar. As of now they have announced interest in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Dublin, Lisbon, and Madrid.

-J.

I'm surprised that CVG isn't on their radar.

I have always been told it was because the demand isn't there, at least not beyond the existing OAL flights. CVG seems to have experienced somewhat of a revival in the last few years (not nearly to what it used to be, but more so than in say circa 2012. I have no evidence to back this up, but I know Frontier opened up some routes earlier this year.

-J.

JetBlue seemed to like to attack OAL focus cities and hubs, even if they do a half-hearted attempt (for example HOU/IAH and DFW). CVG was the logical last one that they haven't attempted.

I don't know if I'd call it an attack with a single BOS/JFK from IAH and a single BOS from DFW. They have avoided MIA altogether. They are actually pulling JFK from CLT next year in favor of more BOS frequencies, though I think less of that traffic is O&D versus Texas.

-J.

They actually already pulled out of JFK-CLT since the end of Oct. You can still get there but you have to connect in BOS. I was tracking that because I have some family in Charlotte I had been meaning to visit for the longest. So I made sure I went down before they ended the nonstop route.

If it was just me traveling, I wouldn’t mind dealing with a layover in BOS but traveling with a small child = no bueno.

Oh wow, I thought it was next year. That sucks, but it wasn't an especially profitable route.

-J.

That's my point. IAH and DFW are half-hearted attempts to serve those cities, but they do occasionally do hub attacks where they run a fare sale that the incumbent hub carrier has to match.

As far as JFK goes, they are slot restricted and really have to juggle routes around to favor the more profitable ones.

I'm still waiting for ORD or even MDW to become a Midwest focus city or mini focus city. I would honestly have preferred to have seen this before Europe. I think they are long past due to bring back ORD-LGB service. It's beyond frustrating that one cannot fly to the West Coast from the Midwest on B6. This is 2019 not 2009. I'm pretty sure the demand is there now.

Count me in as wanting JFK-BNA service as well. I did the BOS thing last month and of course connection was delayed and I missed out on a new client dinner. Thanks but no thanks. I'll take WN next time 90 min nonstop from LGA.

Chicago will never happen. It is a fortress hub for AA, UA and WN. JetBlue will not waste money trying to cut into there.

-J.

Well, CLE and PIT certainly have plenty of gate space.

Once they get A220s into service, I think you will see more service to IAH/DFW from at least BOS. It's the ideal aircraft to serve those places. All these legacy fortress hubs are tough places where A320/E90 are quite uncompetitive, A220 have the best economics to make them work. They've now added frequency on DTW, SEA, PHX, LAX, SJC, SFO recently. They probably need to get to 3 flights a day on IAH and 4 flights a day to DFW to be somewhat competitive.

ORD focus city will never happen. I would love to see build up in either CLE or PIT. Both have plenty of gate space, no overwhelming legacies or WN presence. They are not attractive like AUS or RDU, but attractive places are getting too much competition.

As for new destinations, at some point they need to fly to these domestic destinations. BOS needs it
IND
CMH
STL
MKE
SDF
MEM
CVG
MCI
i don't know how long that will take, but these are all missing dots from their BOS map.

And in Latin America, they still need to think about these places from JFK/FLL.
PTY
SAL
GUA
GRU
GIG

Those are some interesting points, but I don't see why the A220 will make such a difference. It will have 140 seats -- only 10 fewer than the pre-refurb A320. Sure it'll be at a lower CASM, but that's still a LOT of capacity to fill, especially in cities where >75% of the local traffic is loyal to another airline, and the rest of them often go to Spirit, Frontier, or Southwest. PHX is still only one flight from each hub a day... SJC is the same except LGB which is down from 3 to 2 daily, and even then sometimes they're only half full. I don't think LGB has a big future for JetBlue. Can it work on a more efficient plane with 10 fewer seats? We'll see, but I don't think LGB has a big future for JetBlue.

IND and CVG are on their radar, but the demand hasn't been strong enough up to this point to justify a flight, at least in their minds. I think your Latin America predictions are right on the money ^

-J.

I think they have wait for A321neo or A321LR. They will fly from FLL to EZE, FOR, MAO, GRU, GIG, or SCL. Right now, they do not have enough aircraft availability.

The absolute trip cost on the A220-300 is less than the E190. So, they don't have to fill those 40 extra seats. On the other hand, they could fill those 40 extra seats with the ULCC crowd by undercutting their fares. If demand picks up to the point where they can fill those 40 seats with regular fares or better, they'll do great. So, in theory, JetBlue can't really lose by replacing the E190s with the A220-300s even at a 1:1 swap.

So they have quite a few routes like BOS-ATL where they use a mix of A320/E90. Let's say they go from 2 A320 + 3 E90s to 4 A220s + 1 E90. That's the same capacity, but a huge drop in CASM. The CASM for A220 is probably 20% lower than A320 and 40% lower than E90. A lot of tough routes out of BOS like ATL/MSP/BWI/DFW/IAH are going to come close to breaking even with A220.

And for all the cost cutting they'v been doing, A220 is going to be great for the customers.

PHX is going up to 2x daily next summer out of BOS. Same with SJC.

yeah, a lot of these are for when the get A321LR or hopefully A222XLR. I think they are probably reserving all the LR/XLR for TATL service.

My home airport is Fort Myers, Florida (RSW) and I'd love to see some direct flights out west to places like SLC or LAS. Currently all their flights out west from RSW connect either through BOS or Westchester NY (3 hour flight for me) which adds way too much travel time.

HPN only has flights to Florida and ACK seasonally. I think you meant BOS or JFK.

RSW is an outstation; unless LGB/LAX somehow starts growing again or a new midwest focus city opens, there won't be a west coast nonstop out of RSW. Remember, there are already multiple west coast flights out of FLL (LAX and SFO both in Mint, SAN, SLC, LAS, PHX, and HDN).

-J.

Yes, I meant JFK, Thank you for giving me some ideas. FLL is about 1.5 hours from here. I flew to SLC from FLL in March and it was a great flight.. I will look into their other destinations.

FLL to the west coast is now easier than ever before with JetBlue. I wouldn't be surprised if they added SEA or SJC to the list at some point.

-J.

I don't consider PIT or CLE to be Midwest. And setting up focus cities there doesn't help my point of not being able to get from the Midwest to the West Coast on JetBlue. That's a huge gap right now. If not Chicago, then something in the vicinity that's a quick hop from Chicago for a connection. But I also don't rule out JetBlue being able to set up shop at MDW. ORD flights are almost always full or nearly full so there is demand in the area.

I don't see a new focus city coming anytime soon, anywhere. MDW will never happen because JetBlue has no desire to even try competing with Southwest or deal with those weather delays in the winter. I could imagine STL or MKE, or even AUS, as being better contenders. That said, JetBlue doesn't have the staffing or equipment necessary to open up a new focus city without drastic cuts to existing service.

AUS already has flights to all five mainland focus cities. Add DCA, PBI, SJU, BDL, and maybe SFO or SLC into the mix, and you have yourself a connecting point.

-J.

I would be more than ok with any of these but agree that AUS makes the most sense. They need to connect from ORD though. My main point is that they need better connectivity from ORD to the West Coast, not the airline needs to set up a new focus city.

I couldn't agree more. Didn't they used to fly ORD-LGB back in the day? I know ATL and IAD had flights from Long Beach. Although AA, UA, AS, and NK all fly ORD-LAX, no airline serves the Chicagoland area nonstop from Long Beach (or Burbank or Ontario). I wouldn't be surprised if this hole was filled when the A220s hit the line.

-J.

The only city in the west I could see them add for RSW is LAX. There is just not enough demand anywhere in the west for direct service. They do seat to do really well on the NorthEast to RSW service, so I think you will continue to see more of that. Maybe there will be some service to the Caribbean also.


As for where they can go in midwest, it's really hard to see any good options. They have too little gate/counter space at ORD to do anything. I suggested CLE or PIT because there is space and they are relatively underserved. Hard to think of where else would be good in the middle of the country. There are not too many cities out there that have demand and not a large WN/legacy presence.

Yes, if they considering FLL-SEA or SJC. I think they have wait for A321neo to come online. They can fly nonstop flight FLL-SEA by operated A321neo.

I imagine they would want to put Mint on FLL-SEA, but I don't know where the planes would come from. They just announced BOS-SFO would be expanded. So far none of the NEOs have Mint.

-J.

No, they don't have Mint on the entire A321neo. They still have Mint on some A321ceo aircraft.

They are adding one additional mint flight on JFK-SAN and BOS-LAX next summer. Hard to see them doing that without additional mint deliveries.

My client base keeps evolving such that the JetBlue network is becoming more and more of a challenge for me as I start to combine business trips. In addition to the lack of Midwest connectivity, all the time changes/cuts at LGB are hurting me as well. I'd imagine they've already lost business from LGB based business travelers. I do want to fly JetBlue across the pond but 2020 may be the last year I earn loyalty here. It's just not worth these constant circular conversations that seem to go nowhere with the airline.

You're forgetting about a little carrier called Southwest :D

WN flies MDW-BUR (1-2x daily) and MDW-ONT (looks like 1x daily), in addition to their 6-7x MDW-LAX. (They're also in line to pick up some of B6's former slots at LGB, though who knows what they'll use them for.)

UA and AA both fly ORD-SNA as well.