[Speculation] Massive Devaluation coming?
 

I was told today that redemption rates at a top property like WA Maldives will be almost twice as expensive soon. Anyone else hear anything about this?

There will always be devaluation when it comes to points, but I doubt they would do require 100% more at this time.

I decided about six months ago that I was NOT going to save points right now, but look for opportunities to use them. This decision applied to all of the programs that I’m enrolled in. I anticipate all point values will suffer in the next year or so.

Having said that, no… I have not heard any specific rumors about point devaluations.

Who is your source?

March 28, 2013 Hilton did a 90% devaluation for many of their best properties. The top non-Waldorf property was category 7 and cost 50,000 points up until that point. On that day Hilton Honors moved to 10 categories with redemption prices ranging 70,000 - 95,000 points.

So that's not a 100% devaluation but for many properties it was a 90% devaluation in one shot, and that's when they were more transparent and still had published award charts. So I wouldn't say never...

The devaluation may occur sometime later this year, but be aware that it will not be announced in advance. It will be all over the blogger articles once it occurs, and it can happen overnight as it has in the past.

Already seeing several WA/Curio/Conrad and Hilton resort properties charging up to 150% more cash and points rates compared to last year and 2019. Too many people have accumulated large stashes of points that they are not burning away quick enough.

Yes, agreed, but I would say that 2013 is a very different market than today. Especially as Amex and other providers have hedged huge number of miles. Will they accept a devaluation on their hedging of 100% in under a year? They hold a lot more power than us consumers.

Agreed, points are already barely hanging on to the 0.4-0.5 cpp range. Slow erosion over time will continue, but it's hard to imagine people still valuing Hilton points if they're in the 0.2-0.3 cpp range. At some point, they just become GroundPesos.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that essentially what the points structure is today? So there was a 90% deval 9 years ago, but none since? I don't know about that. People cry deval every year. It seems like every 2-3 years is a big change.

I could see where the OP's claims is going with properties like Waldorf Maldives where there is a new cap.

But how can there be any more devaluation? The program is already so devaluated that it almost makes no sense to join it and use it nowadays. It's now almost impossible to get any reasonable value out of points use so any further enhancements would just kill it off completely. You're better off, if you really want to stay in Hilton hotels, getting discounts from OTAs and other sources.

Told by whom?

Well it already started technically. Standard room point redemption rates have gone up a lot without any announcement last year for multiple hotels. The only thing remaining is another unannounced change overnight where the highest standard rate point redemption goes from 150K/night to like 175k/night or so. The 150k for a standard room redemption was unannounced and happened overnight last year for the WA Maldives iirc.

Highest standard room redemption is 120k, not 150k. I see a handful of 120k at WA Maldives.

It's already 150k, and apparently going up to 220k.

I stand corrected. I guess there can now be 120k AND 150k for standard awards at the same hotel now.