Hi Willy702 -

I agree with iahpdx. If F9 is now the dominant ULCC, its chances of survival goes way up.

Unfortunately, it's likely that--in the absence of a competing ULCC carrier--their prices will, too.

Aren't they already doing that with Volaris? I haven't been keeping up with that particular track... any idea how that's working out?

That's true. But if their prices rise to the point they are too close to the big 4, I'm jumping ship. I'll pay extra to have more alternative flight options without stupid long layovers during IRROPS.

Obviously, Frontier has to raise prices. Even before fuel prices skyrocketed, they were losing money. I still think their current business model is fundamentally flawed, but time will tell. We won't really know until the fuel emergency is over. Personally, I would be planning a new strategy. Not sure if it would work, but I'd try being a smaller low cost carrier that didn't suck. I'd charge a reasonable price for carry-ons (Ryanair tends to charge me about $20), offer reasonable refundability (future travel credit), better customer service, and see if customers might LIKE to do business with you. Not sure they could do that, now, but it's probably better than the current failing business model.

Just my take on this is that it would have been true 18-24 months ago. F9 changed their business model and Spirit pulled out of so much of the market so that its not really overlapping anymore. Both stayed out of each other's hubs and I spotted how F9 would dabble in some markets Spirit did well in such as OAK, and then would quickly back out and send most of their seats to SFO. They really haven't competed much other than in LAS and ORL, and neither of those markets suffer from a lack of options. If F9 suddenly decides it needs to start flying into FLL I might believe it but I think their current out and back model serving some fortresses like ATL and DFW are here to stay. That probably means fare increases and no one will really notice because it still might pencil out to be cheaper if the majors are raising their prices too.

People in the Las Vegas tourism industry are really worried about how this will impact them and they might be right to be worried. Spirit was good for volume and low end hotels.

All resorts and cruiselines will suffer; not cuz Spirit doesn't deliver consumers any more, but because all airlines will bite into leisure travel plans by hiking their airfare

If the gas prices don't stabilize and return to affordable levels, they're going to suffer anyway. A lot of that money people would be spending on travel (discretionary budget) will go to fuel purchases instead.

That becomes a problem we've seen before, though. Discretionary budgets dry up, and people stop spending on luxuries... yes, F9 would be affected, but so would a lot of small businesses and retailers. If it's a sustained period of high prices, those business start to suffer and go under, which then exacerbates the problem by increasing the unemployment rate and drying up discretionary spending even more. Hopefully this issue rectifies quickly and prices start to decline, but the latest reports I've seen have regular gas (nevermind avgas) > $5/gallon through the summer.

A prediction of "$5/gallon gas through the summer" is completely meaningless. We know why gas prices are high: there's little oil going through the Straight of Hormuz. One way or another, this conflict could be resolved tomorrow, or it could take months/years to be resolved. We could also see increased output elsewhere that mitigates the problem. Place whatever bet you want, but nobody can really predict what will happen and when.

I wish F9 would raid the OAK-SoCal market, multiple flights per day in each market. As long as I have Gold status I would book them up to about $80, if only to make a personal statement about Southwest's so far unsuccessful attempts to gouge me.

Oakland is an interesting one, and I could certainly see an argument for Frontier returning there. There's a very large population in the East Bay, and it's a long way to SFO. Do people avoid it due to its environs? A couple of years ago I needed to stay in the area and read some airport hotel reviews which were, to say the least, concerning. At least one of those hotels later closed due to crime.

Yeah OAK area is quite rough, but if you just go to the hotel and airport you should be fine. I think it's a high probability F9 goes at OAK soon. The SWA fortress there always seems ripe for competition. Not only inter CA but really every route there because it has such a high amount of weekday business traffic.

There are a lot of problems with SFO access. Traffic and having to cross bridges is one, but a real impact for F9 is that BART stops running at midnight and yet F9 flights often arrive around that time from DEN. Kind of renders it worthless to save some on airfare if you then have to blow the savings on ride-sharing.

Holy cow... F9 is working hard to make up for the fuel costs. I've had my eye on a flight MCO-ORD sometime in Late May (I'm flexible on dates). The flight was $110 a couple of weeks ago, but I didn't buy it because I wasn't sure of dates. The same flight today is almost $300. This is the case for every flight in late May and early June. Fuel costs must be hurting them pretty bad.

It will obviously be a problem for them catering to the most price sensitive flyers while having to cover higher fuel costs. We will just have to see what happens with fuel costs and whether the demise of Spirit lifts their fortunes. Assuming some moderation in fuel over the next few months, I think Frontier is now positioned to be solvent for at least a year. As the 'last man standing" among large ULCCs, I think the most likely scenario is they muddle along for a while. But if they want to strive for something better than basic survival, they're going to have to modify their model to be an airline people actually want to fly.
https://www.axios.com/2026/05/05/fro...-budget-travel

The analysts are all over the place about it.

Some are saying they're going to follow Spirit down the drain: Frontier Hoping to Avoid Fate of Budget Rival Spirit Airlines
https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/new...es/ar-AA22sXDt

While others are saying the Spirit collapse will actually bolster them: Frontier Airlines Forecasts Revenue Boost from Spirit Collapse
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/05/fron...-collapse.html

I think they're going to jack up prices because their price competitor is no longer there AND they can blame it on fuel, then they will be fine. Personally, I look at this as a good time to pick up some ULCC stock.