Frontier is a play on the mid to low consumer, simple as that. That's the segment that has been struggling mightly with inflation and job cuts of late, so not surprising their numbers are poor. If we still have another leg down to come into full recession then for sure they will be hammered even more. Still though I think there's a market for it at some point, lets see how they get to that point.

The delays in extending their calendar probably have been as much about projecting where the economy is going as much as figuring out how successful their modest pivot into competing on certain routes the majors have dominated in has gone. Really hard for anyone to gauge that without having access to their internal numbers but I can say my F9 flights this year have been 100% full, some even offering the credit vouchers to give up seats. And while still cheaper than the majors, they haven't been bargain flights. With the calendar ending in late May, its clearly time for them to figure out how to make hay in the summer and that might mean a temporary shift to getting the bargain shoppers onto planes for their vacations in lieu of chasing down some of the major's fortress revenues.

Some on Wall Street share my belief that Frontier will eventually go broke. This article also discusses their long rumored sale/leaseback financial shenanigans.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/front...184137643.html

You hit the nail on the head regarding their revenue management. Frontier is in this weird spot where they are trying to attract higher-yield travelers with 'UpFront Plus' and Elite status perks, yet they still run their scheduling like a shoestring budget operation.

I wonder what sort of terms the Feds would put on a package for Spirit now? If so, would Frontier do the same? Or would they be incentivized to merge with Spirit? What's left of Spirit has to look a lot better than what they would have bought 2 years ago and makes a lot more sense with far less overlap for routes and passengers.

I can't really believe the Feds would put money into Spirit as a standalone. And, frankly, I wouldn't want them to put any money into any "deal." Spirit failed because their business model failed. Yes, it's unfortunate the Biden people wouldn't let them merge with JetBlue (which most people knew made zero sense), but it's not really up to Trump to correct past governmental mistakes.

I could see Secretary Duffy trying to jawbone Spirit's creditors and Frontier management to come to some sort of merger deal. They'd probably want some Fed liquidity, though. Personally, I don't think that's the proper role of government for failed business models, and I'm not super confident the merged airline would be viable either. Remember, Frontier has been slowly going broke. Buying parts of Spirit is unlikely to result in more profitability, unless they can change the model.

Frontier buying Spirit would be the airline equivalent of K-Mart buying Sears back in the day. Both were circling the drain, and instead of helping, the merger just put them over the edge. Losing NK sucks, but losing NK and F9 would suck a lot worse.

I also agree that it's not really the role of the government to bail out corporations. I guess we'll see what happens, though.

I'm not a fan of government intervention either but it's plain and obvious if these two go down the flying public is SCREWED! The better solution would have been the government stepping in decades ago and preventing this airline cartel we have. The comments by Kirby are chilling as hell, if he got his way we might as well go back to overpriced regulated flying.

Eh, airline ticket inflation has been WAY less than inflation in most other sectors of the economy. People love to think "we're getting screwed" by the airlines, but the facts indicate otherwise. I'd also note that the service provided by the big US airlines is better than the service provided by other large US companies, especially when you consider the complexity of their business.

Reports indicate that Frontier and Avelo are trying to sell equity stakes to the government in exchange for cash to deal with the current spike in oil prices. Given Trump's willingness to consider helping Spirit, I suppose this development was inevitable. Not sure what will happen. The problem, of course, is that Frontier is in this weak position because its business model is unsuccessful even in "normal" times. We'll have to see how the politics play out.
https://onemileatatime.com/news/budg...e-stay-afloat/

I have never said we were screwed by current conditions. If all ULCCs get shutdown with majors picking up their gates I think we all know what happens. And you of all people who fly so much seemingly root on this is kinda upsetting.

I'm not rooting for the ULCCs demise, just observing that they have failing business models. You describe our major airlines as a "cartel." America has 3 huge airlines (DL, UA and AA), and 2 other viable very large airlines (AS and WN). They also face dozens of foreign competitors, and have much less than a 50% share of int'l flights to the US. That's a lot of competition! And the financial results show it: their profit margins are poor compared to other industries. I do think average airfares might rise a little if most of the other unprofitable airlines somehow shut down, but I don't think travellers would be "screwed" if only the more successful airlines survive.

International is a whole different game with lots of subsidized businesses so it has to be its own thing. I'm just talking about domestic flying which is the 5, but could easily be 4 or 3 with the way these carriers are talking. National mobility will take a massive hit as it would be easy for carriers to all pull back on seats and stick to the most profitable routes. The only hope then would be animal spirits return and new LCCs start up again. Meanwhile the economy takes a hit and hundreds of thousands, if not millions of jobs are lost. All because someone felt a war needed to be had at this time

Right now if Frontier wants to merge/buy another airline, the merger will go through without any objections. Frontier should start looking at code share, partnership agreements with similar US and/or foreign airlines to expand their offerings.

I assume that right now what Frontier is looking at is what opportunities exist in a Spirit-less world. I presume this increases the odds of Frontier itself avoiding bankruptcy, but only time will tell. We will have to see what happens when fuel prices return to normal and we can gauge customer interest in flying Frontier. Logic would suggest there is a possible business for one large US airline that prioritizes price over service.

Are you confident oil prices will be "normal" any time soon? I think this administration is doing anything and everything to make sure that doesn't happen on their watch.